It's time to take a look at the 2016 MLB season from a wagering perspective. I'm a big fan of the season win total bets ever since I started making them in person in Las Vegas back in the late 1990s.
It's a good exercise before the start of each season not only to make predictions on where you think the teams will finish, but also test those against the conventional wisdom expressed through money wagered in sportsbooks.
Over the last 15 years, I've come out ahead. My overall record is 43 for 72 (with one push) for 59.7 percent. My best bet each season is 15-11 (I had multiple biggest bets some years). I'm a little better on bets of $100 or more (I vary my bet size to emphasize how strongly I feel about the pick) where I'm 12-8. Although I lost my best bet and $100 bet last year, the over on Oakland (the over was 81.5 games and they won just 68. Yikes). I'm most impressive on a weighted or cash basis, where I've been correct 64 percent of the time ($2,850 in winning bets, $1,600 in losers - not factoring in the vig). Last year I was pretty mediocre going 4-4 in bets with a loss of $100.
I grabbed these odds on March 30.
|Team||Over/under wins||Change from 2015|
|Boston Red Sox||87.5||9.5|
|Chicago White Sox|