This article is part of our The Z Files series.
Last week, we looked at different approaches to handling stolen bases. The analogous category on the pitching ledger is saves. Today, we're going to learn the truth about closers.
The primary difference between steals and saves is that while it's possible to minimize the number of stolen base contributors acquired in the draft or auction, saves can be completely omitted. In addition, there's a much smaller subset of the pitching inventory capable of producing saves. Finally, while there are always players who can steal that emerge in-season, they're a different ilk than set-up men who become closers via injury, poor performance or a trade of the pitcher in front of them.
As such, there are a handful of conventional means of dealing with the category.
- Pay for the elite closers
- Focus on the middle tier
- Speculate late in the draft or end game in the auction
- Use free agency to acquire saves
Spoiler alert: there isn't a single best method. To illustrate this, here's a look at a few leagues from last season: Tout Wars, League of Alternative Baseball Reality (LABR) and some National Fantasy Baseball Championship (NFBC) leagues I played in. The number of points the first, second and third place finishers earned are displayed. The number in parentheses is the number of teams in the league.
| FIRST | SECOND | THIRD | |
| AL Tout Wars (12) | 9 | 1 | 7 |
| AL LABR (12) | 12 | 5 | 7 |
| AL NFBC (12) | 9 | 4.5 | 12 |
| NL Tout Wars (12) | 7.5 | 1 | 3 |
| NL |
Last week, we looked at different approaches to handling stolen bases. The analogous category on the pitching ledger is saves. Today, we're going to learn the truth about closers.
The primary difference between steals and saves is that while it's possible to minimize the number of stolen base contributors acquired in the draft or auction, saves can be completely omitted. In addition, there's a much smaller subset of the pitching inventory capable of producing saves. Finally, while there are always players who can steal that emerge in-season, they're a different ilk than set-up men who become closers via injury, poor performance or a trade of the pitcher in front of them.
As such, there are a handful of conventional means of dealing with the category.
- Pay for the elite closers
- Focus on the middle tier
- Speculate late in the draft or end game in the auction
- Use free agency to acquire saves
Spoiler alert: there isn't a single best method. To illustrate this, here's a look at a few leagues from last season: Tout Wars, League of Alternative Baseball Reality (LABR) and some National Fantasy Baseball Championship (NFBC) leagues I played in. The number of points the first, second and third place finishers earned are displayed. The number in parentheses is the number of teams in the league.
| FIRST | SECOND | THIRD | |
| AL Tout Wars (12) | 9 | 1 | 7 |
| AL LABR (12) | 12 | 5 | 7 |
| AL NFBC (12) | 9 | 4.5 | 12 |
| NL Tout Wars (12) | 7.5 | 1 | 3 |
| NL LABR (12) | 2.2 | 2.5 | 7 |
| NL NFBC (12) | 9 | 4 | 11 |
| Mixed Auction Tout Wars (15) | 13 | 1 | 15 |
| Mixed Draft Tout Wars (15) | 10 | 7 | 6 |
| Mixed LABR (15) | 8.5 | 13 | 1 |
| NFBC Main Event (15) | 15 | 13 | 9 |
| NFBC Auction (15) | 3 | 7 | 9 |
The sample is obviously small and not intended to demonstrate anything more than different approaches can work. Two champions (AL LABR and NFBC Main Event) won the category. Two champions (NL LABR and NFBC Auction) finished near the bottom. The other seven ended up somewhere in the upper half.
Something to keep in mind is the above table is just numbers; it does not say anything about the approach. As an example, I know first-hand the NL Tout winner purchased Kenley Jansen for $19 in the auction as his sole closer, then looked to add saves here and there throughout the season. The Mixed LABR winner drafted Francisco Rodriguez as his only closer, then picked up Seung Hwan Oh to supplement later in the season. And, the second place finisher in my NFBC Main Event league draft A.J. Ramos then doubled up on Alex Colome and Brad Boxberger a couple rounds later, hitting pay dirt on Colome.
Let's share one more tidbit before getting into the meat of this discussion. Here's a list of relievers that were won in FAAB in Tout Wars and LABR through early July. I could have kept going, but I think you'll get the point. In no particular order other than how I grabbed them from the chicken-scratch I jotted them down in: Dalier Hinojosa, Jeanmar Gomez, Danny Farquhar, Sam Dyson, Kelvin Herrera, Tony Zych, Brandon Maurer, Hector Neris, Kevin Jepsen, Tony Cingrani, Caleb Cotham, Tony Watson, Nate Jones, Jim Johnson, Andrew Bailey, David Phelps, Mauricio Cabrera, Ryan Dull, Junichi Tazawa, Seung Hwan Oh, Ken Giles, Nick Vincent, Kyle Barraclough, Jonathan Broxton, Carlos Estevez, Tyler Thornburg, Ryan Buchter, Jake Diekman, Jake Barrett, Cam Bedrosian, David Hernandez, Trevor May, Brandon Kintzler, Arquimedes Caminero, Drew Storen, Joe Smith, Joel Peralta, Fernando Rodriguez, John Axford, Will Harris, Adam Ottavino, Edwin Diaz, Fernando Abad, Jason Motte, Shawn Kelley and even Ross Ohlendorf.
Granted, some acquisitions weren't solely intended for saves speculation. Some were in deep leagues and were executed in part for ratio support. But, at some point last season, each was at least a plausible candidate for saves. And, there's no doubt names are missing from the list.
With that as a backdrop, let's move on to the key with closers. While we can argue how projectable saves are, closers contribute more to team totals. This is a fact too many are naive to, choose to ignore or aren't motivated enough to study. Many are basing drafting strategy on a falsehood that saves are saves are saves.
The 2016 NFBC Main Event will be employed as the model, since there are ample leagues to generate average standings. That is, the average total (or ratio) across all categories for each standings place can be determined. For this study, all we care about is ERA, WHIP and strikeouts. The stats of an average closer were subtracted from the eighth-place totals. The contributions from all pitchers accruing at least 10 saves were added in, assuming a base of 1410 team innings. The number of points each reliever generated in ERA, WHIP and strikeouts was determined. The final +/- column is the number of points each totaled as compared to the average closer.
| Pitcher | IP | ERA | WHIP | K | ERA pts | WHIP pts | K pts | +/- |
| Andrew Miller | 74.33 | 1.45 | 0.69 | 123 | 9 | 11 | 10 | 6 |
| Kenley Jansen | 68.67 | 1.83 | 0.67 | 104 | 9 | 11 | 9 | 5 |
| Zach Britton | 67 | 0.54 | 0.84 | 74 | 10 | 10 | 8 | 4 |
| Seung Hwan Oh | 79.67 | 1.92 | 0.92 | 103 | 9 | 10 | 9 | 4 |
| Mark Melancon | 71.33 | 1.64 | 0.9 | 65 | 9 | 10 | 8 | 3 |
| Aroldis Chapman | 58 | 1.55 | 0.86 | 90 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 3 |
| Dellin Betances | 73 | 3.08 | 1.12 | 126 | 8 | 8 | 11 | 3 |
| Roberto Osuna | 74 | 2.68 | 0.93 | 82 | 8 | 10 | 8 | 2 |
| Tyler Thornburg | 67 | 2.15 | 0.94 | 90 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 2 |
| Alex Colome | 56.67 | 1.91 | 1.02 | 71 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 1 |
| Cody Allen | 68 | 2.51 | 1 | 87 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 1 |
| Steve Cishek | 64 | 2.81 | 1.02 | 76 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 1 |
| Edwin Diaz | 51.67 | 2.79 | 1.16 | 88 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 1 |
| Hector Rondon | 51 | 3.53 | 0.98 | 58 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 1 |
| Tony Watson | 67.67 | 3.06 | 1.06 | 58 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 1 |
| Luke Gregerson | 57.67 | 3.28 | 0.97 | 67 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 1 |
| Ken Giles | 65.67 | 4.11 | 1.29 | 102 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 1 |
| Will Harris | 64 | 2.25 | 1.05 | 69 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 1 |
| Kelvin Herrera | 72 | 2.75 | 0.96 | 86 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 1 |
| Jeurys Familia | 77.67 | 2.55 | 1.21 | 84 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 0 |
| Francisco Rodriguez | 58.33 | 3.24 | 1.13 | 52 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 0 |
| A.J. Ramos | 64 | 2.81 | 1.36 | 73 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 0 |
| Sam Dyson | 70.33 | 2.43 | 1.22 | 55 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 0 |
| David Robertson | 62.33 | 3.47 | 1.36 | 75 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 0 |
| Craig Kimbrel | 53 | 3.4 | 1.09 | 83 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 0 |
| Santiago Casilla | 58 | 3.57 | 1.19 | 65 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 0 |
| Fernando Rodney | 65.33 | 3.44 | 1.39 | 74 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 0 |
| Brad Ziegler | 68 | 2.25 | 1.37 | 58 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 0 |
| Jim Johnson | 64.67 | 3.06 | 1.19 | 68 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 0 |
| Brandon Maurer | 69.67 | 4.52 | 1.26 | 72 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 0 |
| Arodys Vizcaino | 38.67 | 4.42 | 1.63 | 50 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 0 |
| Ryan Madson | 64.67 | 3.62 | 1.28 | 49 | 8 | 8 | 7 | -1 |
| Wade Davis | 43.33 | 1.87 | 1.13 | 47 | 8 | 8 | 7 | -1 |
| Jeremy Jeffress | 58 | 2.33 | 1.26 | 42 | 8 | 8 | 7 | -1 |
| Brandon Kintzler | 54.33 | 3.15 | 1.23 | 35 | 8 | 8 | 7 | -1 |
| Tony Cingrani | 63 | 4.14 | 1.44 | 49 | 8 | 8 | 7 | -1 |
| Jake McGee | 45.67 | 4.73 | 1.58 | 38 | 8 | 8 | 7 | -1 |
| Trevor Rosenthal | 40.33 | 4.46 | 1.91 | 56 | 8 | 7 | 8 | -1 |
| Carlos Estevez | 55 | 5.24 | 1.42 | 59 | 7 | 8 | 8 | -1 |
| Jeanmar Gomez | 68.67 | 4.85 | 1.46 | 47 | 7 | 8 | 7 | -2 |
| Jonathan Papelbon | 35 | 4.37 | 1.46 | 31 | 8 | 8 | 6 | -2 |
| Shawn Tolleson | 36.33 | 7.68 | 1.73 | 29 | 6 | 8 | 6 | -4 |
Ratios and strikeouts matter. The assets you expend on closers like Jansen, Zach Britton, Mark Melancon and Aroldis Chapman help in more than just saves.
Before drawing too many conclusions, keep a couple things in mind. The above assumes each pitcher was active all season long, which is obviously true in all cases. In fact, the best way to look at the data is to ignore the names and focus just on the numbers. When you rank your closers for this season, find the ratios and whiffs that closely match the subject to get an idea of their non-save contribution. For what it's worth, the deeper the league, the greater the impact.
The following is crude, but it helps put the non-saves production in perspective and is how I approach saves at the draft or auction. It takes about 120 points to win a 15-team league. Using the standard $260 budget, this equates to $0.46 per point. Even though the impact is increased in AL and NL only, since it only takes 90 points on average to win, the dollar per point is similar.
Assuming the elite closers in terms of ratios and punch outs garner an extra four to six points, that's between $2 and $3 worth of stats. I use that as my cutoff. Accounting for the number of saves I expect compared to the average closer (which is 35), I'll pay an extra couple bucks for an elite guy at an auction or take him in an earlier round if the price is right. As humblebragged above, I bought Jansen for $19 at last year's NL Tout auction, feeling this was a fair price considering he'll earn $2 or $3 in ratios and strikeouts. On the other hand, I wasn't willing to pay the premium in LABR or the NFBC squads, opting for other routes.
The main take-home lesson is all saves are not created equal. They can come with a bonus or baggage. It's fine to preach not spending on saves, just know what you're getting into, as closers can have a significant influence on ERA, WHIP and strikeouts.
