Mound Musings: Arms to Watch in the NL West

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Updated on March 16, 2017 12:41PM EST

Last week we looked at the AL Central, and this week and next, I'll continue to throw out some pitchers for your consideration, covering the NL West this week and the AL West next. When the dust settles, we should be looking at Opening Day, and hopefully have a value-laden pitching staff heading into the 2017 season. We're at the head of the stretch, so let's look at the:

National League West

Arizona Diamondbacks – This is an interesting rotation where several good performers could make the team fairly competitive. Of course, that has to begin with Zack Greinke, and I'm not sure he has it in him. After a Cy Youngish season in 2015 (1.66 ERA) he slipped badly last year (4.37 ERA). It can be attributed to many things including nagging injuries, the move to Arizona and maybe even age, but now with his velocity reportedly down a tick this spring, I would be leery of counting on him. Next up we have two reclamation projects. Both Taijuan Walker and Shelby Miller have loads of talent and equally large parcels of baggage. If the coaching staff can get them focused, they could be gems, but there is considerable risk. Walker is a prime candidate for the changes in latitude angle, so keep an eye on him. Robbie Ray could also be a diamond here. His strikeout rate is eye-catching, but he needs more consistency with his secondary pitches. I think he'll take at least a small step

National League West

In 2016, Arizona's bullpen was a disaster. They brought in Fernando Rodney to close this season and while his trademark is a bow and arrow complemented by wild finishes, there isn't much to challenge his role. He makes his owners crazy, but he generally gets it done. Jake Barrett will be his primary set-up man and would be the most likely replacement if Rodney stumbles, but there are a couple of other guys who looked good in 2015 before meltdowns last season. Look for Andrew Chafin to handle a more prominent role, and monitor the usage of bullpen sleeper, Silvino Bracho.

Recapping the Diamondbacks:

The arm to own: Patrick Corbin
He's not for me: Zack Greinke
Best of the bullpen: Fernando Rodney
Monitor his role: Andrew Chafin

Colorado Rockies – It takes a special kind of pitcher, both mentally and physically, to be successful pitching for the Rockies. There haven't been too many over the years, and I really don't see a standout in the 2017 edition. Jon Gray is clearly the top arm in the stable. In another venue he could be quite attractive, but hurling in Colorado will be problematic with a higher ERA. He's worth considering, but he moves back a couple spots in a fantasy rotation. Tyler Anderson is the No. 2, but his WHIP (1.29 last year) will need to improve. Extra baserunners in that park is a recipe for disaster. It's much the same for Tyler Chatwood. He too puts too many men on base, and that is something he would need to avoid to make my fantasy roster. If I had to try one, the Rockies' arm with the highest ceiling might be Jeff Hoffman. He's a little inexperienced, but his electric stuff can potentially compensate for the volatile Coors environment. This might be a year too early, but the skills are there. With Chris Rusin and Chad Bettis out, German Marquez is the top candidate for the fifth spot. He probably has more upside than Rusin or Bettis, but he's still green, and at age 22, he needs to prove that he can withstand the pressures of pitching in Coors Field. Let's wait and see.

Everyone knows Coors Field is a dangerous place to pitch, but the shaky rotation makes the Rockies' bullpen pretty important. Now (hopefully) healthy, Adam Ottavino is the presumed main man, and he profiles as a competent closer. He has a qualified set-up man with closing experience in lefty Jake McGee, so the nucleus is there. But, there is also a huge wildcard lurking in the wings. From 2012 to 2014 Greg Holland was a premier closer for Kansas City, saving 125 games over those three seasons. He underwent Tommy John surgery in late 2015 and missed all of last year, so his status is somewhat cloudy right now. If he comes back to form, he could turn this pen upside down.

Recapping the Rockies:

The arm to own: Jeff Hoffman
He's not for me: Tyler Chatwood
Best of the bullpen: Adam Ottavino
Monitor his role: Greg Holland

Los Angeles Dodgers – Writing the name Clayton Kershaw at the top of your rotation certainly puts you in an enviable position. He missed a couple months (ouch) with a balky back last year, but everything points to a healthy super-ace heading into 2017 He'll be the first pitcher off the board in virtually every draft so don't expect any discounts, but he can make up for a lot of shaky innings from your staff. They aren't Kershaws – okay, who is – but Kenta Maeda and Rich Hill can both contribute to a productive fantasy rotation. I prefer Maeda based on his age (28) as he is likely just coming into his prime, while Hill, at age 37, could have a tough time duplicating his 2016 season. After missing most of the past two years, Hyun-Jin Ryu is certainly an injury risk, but if he's healthy and can stay that way, he could provide significant value. For the immediate future, some combination of Alex Wood, Brandon McCarthy and eventually Scott Kazmir will fill the fifth spot. Wood is the best of that group, but all three will just be placeholders for the real prize. In any other organization (with no Kershaw) Julio Urias would be included in "future staff ace" discussions. It would be legitimate. He's that good. At age 20, he'll probably start the year at Triple-A as the Dodgers try to both add a little polish and manage his innings, but it's only a matter of time, and this might be the last chance you'll have to get him at even a minimal discount. Buy now.

When you have the best starting pitcher in the game, adding arguably the best closer in Kenley Jansen seems almost unfair. Everybody knows the cutter is coming with mid-90s velocity, but it hasn't helped anyone square it up. Stretches of pure dominance with loads of strikeouts are always on the table with Jansen. There were times when bridging to Jansen was an adventure so the Dodgers brought in Sergio Romo – he has always been better suited to eighth inning work. Add in quality southpaws Grant Dayton, who blossomed after coming over in a deal last season, and Adam Liberatore who quickly built confidence before being sidelined late in the year, plus potentially useful pieces like Pedro Baez and sleeper Josh Ravin, and this looks like a very strong bullpen.

Recapping the Dodgers:

The arm to own: Julio Urias
He's not for me: Scott Kazmir
Best of the bullpen: Kenley Jansen
Monitor his role: Adam Liberatore

San Diego Padres – In the movie Major League there was a rather famous line, "Who are these blipping guys?" It's not quite that bad in San Diego – most relatively serious fantasy baseball aficionados will have heard of the pitchers competing for a rotation spot, but they probably won't want to own any of them. Today (it could easily change tomorrow), Clayton Richard and Jhoulys Chacin are at the top of the food chain. Richard is best suited to a swingman role, and Chacin, who was once an interesting young arm, albeit quite a few years ago, would be a serious leap of faith, even pitching in the friendlier park. If you're set on taking a flyer on a Padres' pitcher, I might be tempted to look at Luis Perdomo. He's a long way from a sure thing but there is some upside there. Jered Weaver will probably end up with a spot, but I have made it a rule to stay away from non-knuckleball pitchers who can't top me on the radar gun. The list is long, folks. Trevor Cahill and Jarred Cosart each showed some ability at one time. Maybe one of them can become marginally relevant again? Paul Clemens, another swingman-type, and Christian Friedrich are also in the mix, but not for me. Finally, if you're looking for a light at the end of the tunnel, it's not necessarily all doom and gloom. Robbie Erlin is expected back around July/August, while Anderson Espinoza and Cal Quantrill are both quality prospects. It's unlikely they will surface this year, but they warrant consideration in dynasty or keeper formats to be sure.

As I mentioned above, I don't think I have ever seen such an unsettled rotation. With so many question marks there – and that is being generous – the bullpen figures to get a lot of work. A big part of the anticipated level of success will depend on the health of the reliever with the best stuff, who needs to be closing soon. Carter Capps is coming back from Tommy John surgery, and if he can flash his 2015 form, complete with swing-and-miss stuff, he could be a formidable closer. That would bump Brandon Maurer back to a more comfortable set-up role, and then allow the other arms in the pen to settle into appropriate support roles. Ryan Buchter is a key. He shined, then suffered through an ugly stretch last season, but looked much better again in September. They need him, and he should be a useful component along with fellow lefty, Brad Hand. Capps probably won't be 100 percent on Opening Day, and the Padres have no reason to push things, but he being the primary closer has to be the ultimate objective.

Recapping the Padres:

The arm to own: Luis Perdomo
He's not for me: Jered Weaver
Best of the bullpen: Carter Capps
Monitor his role: Ryan Buchter

San Francisco Giants – Not many teams can go head-to-head with the Dodgers mound corps, but the divisional rival Giants can. Staff ace Madison Bumgarner is just a small tick behind Kershaw, but the other components of the rotation match up well. And, those other arms might be pretty savvy investments on draft day. Bumgarner surely will be full price, but the next guy up, Johnny Cueto, sometimes gets slightly overlooked. Typically a model of consistency, he can provide his owners with a handy ERA and WHIP with just under a strikeout per inning. Playing in front of a contending team, wins should be part of the package, too. If there is a sleeper here, it could be Matt Moore. He has been teasing us for several seasons, too often running up higher pitch counts and failing to trust his exceptional stuff. The southpaw Moore still lacks a consistent release point, but watching him pitch when he gets in a rhythm can be awe-inspiring. He's getting closer, so there could be value. Jeff Samardzija has morphed into a "what you see is what you get" innings eater. That's not a bad thing, but his price tag generally parallels his stat line. The only real question mark resides in the fifth starter slot. Veteran Matt Cain will probably get the first crack, but injuries have sapped his once formidable skills. At some point expect the Giants to throw in the proverbial towel and cede the spot to either lefty Ty Blach or Tyler Beede. Beede is a marginally better prospect, but Blach is perhaps closer to being ready for the show.

For the past few seasons the Giants have tinkered with excellent set-up men being miscast as closers. No more. They brought in Mark Melancon, who has averaged 49 saves a year over the past two seasons, and they still have both Hunter Strickland and Derek Law, along with southpaw Will Smith, to effectively get the team to the ninth inning. Melancon isn't especially overpowering, but he has a habit of eliminating many opposing baserunners with his extreme groundball tendencies, while Strickland stands out as the arm to watch. He could one day end up closing with his electric stuff, and he will probably get the ball to finish games when Melancon needs a day off.

Recapping the Giants:

The arm to own: Matt Moore
He's not for me: Matt Cain
Best of the bullpen: Mark Melancon
Monitor his role: Hunter Strickland

Next week we'll wrap up our staff previews with a look at the AL West.