Oak's Corner: A Good Weekend for Encarnacion?

The Week That Was

• Jeff Samardzija has been a frustrating pitcher to own the last two years, usually trading off between flashes of greatness and rough ratio-killing outings. This year has been no different as Shark currently sports a 5.26 ERA over his first eight starts. A look at some of his ratios finds a Samardzija who's pitching as well as he ever has. His current strikeout rate of 10.7 K/9 easily would be the highest of his career and he has dropped his walk rate to a career-low of 1.7 BB/9. As for the ERA, he has been the victim of a .343 Babip and a 59.4 percent strand rate, which helps explain his impressive 3.12 FIP. As for his batted ball profile, Samardzija's hard hit rate currently sits at 27.1 percent, a solid number, while his increased strikeouts look to be fully supported based on the bump in his swinging K rate to 11.3 percent. The one big blemish in his profile so far this year is the 31.7 percent line drive right that's clearly causing some of his Babip issues. Samardzija is a big trade target for me right now and likely can be acquired for a nice price with that ugly ERA and the frustration he often leaves his owners feeling.

• A scan of the current hard hit rate leaders finds many of the names one would expect, but an unexpected name jumps out of the list in Tim Beckham. Through 147 at-bats, Beckham has a 48 percent hard hit rate, good for the sixth highest in the league. The former first overall pick has been starting at shortstop with Matt Duffy out due to injury and has taken full advantage of the opportunity. Through 39 games, Beckham has banged seven homers to go along with a .279 batting average after struggling in 2016 with a .247 average and only five homers over 64 games. The red flag in Beckham's profile clearly comes from his strikeout and walk profiles. So far this year, he has struck out in 32.5 percent of his plate appearances, which adds up to 51 strikeouts against only seven walks. With the plate discipline issues and his lack of fly balls (only 32.3 percent) it's hard to see either the batting average or the power helping fantasy teams long-term, despite the elite hard hit numbers. Ride him out for now, but I would move him in a second for any viable offer.

• With Jarrod Dyson moving to Seattle and receiving increased playing time, it was thought (I know I did) that he could be extremely valuable with stolen bases being down across the league in 2016. Dyson has provided value with 12 stolen bases and 23 runs, but his lack of offense (he did hit a homer as I write this of course) is also hurting fantasy teams and could cut into his playing time soon, perhaps when Mitch Haniger returns off the DL. Through 122 at-bats, Dyson has only two homers and 11 RBI, but that was to be expected. The tough part is that he's only hitting .213. Dyson's hard hit rate is by far the lowest in MLB at an almost impossible to believe 11.1 percent with the next lowest being Jose Peraza at 15.5 percent. Not only is he dead last in hard hit rate, he's also leading the league with a 38 percent soft contact rate. Dyson is never going to be someone who hits a lot of balls hard but he's a full six percent behind last year's unimpressive 17.1 percent number. Dyson usually has a Babip in the .300 range due to his speed, so we can expect his current .236 Babip to rise a bit, but if he continues his anemic batted ball profile, he's at risk of losing at-bats, which takes away his opportunity to rack up steals for fantasy teams.

• Josh Bell hit his ninth homer on Thursday and has been on fire recently with four homers in his last six games. After only three homers last season in 128 at-bats, the knock on Bell coming into 2017 was that he wouldn't provide enough power at a corner infield slot. He has blown that concern out of the water so far, and a quick glance seems to present a guy who has become a different hitter with a lower batting average and more strikeouts (up to 20.3 percent K-Rate this year after only 12.5 percent in 2016), as he ramps up his power with an impressive ISO of .254. However, on a deeper dive into his batted ball profile, I'm not buying the early power breakout. Bell's ground ball rate has actually increased this year up to a very high 52.1 percent. Combine the lack of fly balls with a hard hit rate that has dropped to 27.7 percent and I think Bell is a prime sell high guy. His HR/FB rate is currently 27.6 percent (and that was before Thursday's home run), which is a number more than double even his highest rate in the minors. I would reach out to someone in your league needing a corner (maybe the Freddie Freeman owner) and play up the newfound power and his past prospect pedigree to get nice value for him right now.

• A lot has been written about the struggles of aces Jake Arrieta and Justin Verlander this season, but Johnny Cueto has to be tossed in their group also. Cueto has had an ERA under 3.00 in five of his last six seasons but finds himself sitting at 4.50 after nine starts in 2017. The two numbers that stick out when trying to figure out Cueto's struggles are his hard hit rate and his ground ball rate. Cueto induced 50.2 percent ground balls in 2016, but that number has dropped off to 39.2 percent so far this season. When you combine the increase in line drives and fly balls with the highest hard hit rate of his career at 35.8 percent, you can see why his home run rate has doubled from last year to 1.24 HR/9. Cueto has only had three games where he has allowed more than three runs, but the lack of gems has been a factor in keeping his ERA high, as he has yet to have a start where he allowed fewer than two runs. A closer look reveals that Cueto's struggles have really come later in games when he faces a lineup for the third time. His OPS against a lineup the first two times through is under .700, but in the third trip through, his OPS against jumps up to an awful .927. Cueto is a smart veteran pitcher (one of my top five to watch pitch for sure), and I would think that he will figure out what he's doing wrong later in games and will adjust. If the Cueto owner is getting frustrated (doubtful, I know based on his draft price), I would make a competitive offer now and try and catch the likely string of gems coming for Cueto.

• Craig Kimbrel is freaking insane right now, plain and simple. You don't often see a reliever with an ERA at 0.96 whose FIP is even lower at 0.47. He has an incredible 35:2 K:BB rate through 18.2 innings, and those much-discussed walk issues from last year feel like a distant memory. In the famous Dennis Eckersley 1990 season where he only walked four guys all year, he had a 73:4 K:BB ratio, almost exactly the same ratio Kimbrel is at now. If I was drafting tomorrow, Kimbrel would be my top reliever and there isn't a closer in the league I would trade him for right now.
  

German Marquez: We discussed Marquez last week and he pitched well again this week, allowing only one run in five innings against the Twins on Thursday and earning a win. That makes back-to-back good starts by Marquez and three out of four where he has allowed one run or fewer. Marquez gets two starts this week, but of course the issue (as it often is with Rockies pitchers) is that the second start is at Coors Field. His first start is in Philly, and I'm fine using him there, but the Cardinals on Sunday in Coors is a scary thought. As of now, I'm okay risking it in a 15-team league for the strikeouts and win upside, but I don't think I can stomach the second start in Coors against an offense that hasn't score a ton of runs yet but still finds itself among the top 10 in OPS.

Jordan Montgomery: Montgomery struggled on Thursday in Kansas City, allowing five runs in five innings against the Royals. Montgomery was pitching well until the fifth inning when an infield single and a walk preceded a three-run bomb by Mike Moustakas. To be honest, I liked seeing the poor stat line, as I think it will lower the price on Montgomery this weekend. Montgomery won the Yankees fifth starter job out of camp and finds his ERA at 4.81, as he has struggled with walks and with men on base. After Thursday's outing, his walk rate is now 4.12 BB/9 while his strand rate dropped to 65.5 percent. On the plus side, Montgomery has a strong strikeout rate through his first 39.1 major league innings at 8.47 K/9, and what I like most coming into Thursday, is the swinging strike rate (13.4 percent) that ranks in the top 10 among MLB starters who have thrown at least 30 innings. The strikeouts are quite real and his minor league numbers indicate the walks should come down as he gets more comfortable. He gets two starts this week at home and I really like the matchups as he will face the Royals and the A's, teams that are both ranked among the bottom five teams in runs scored this season. He's likely still owned in most 15-team leagues, but I have seen him dropped and available in many 12-teamers, and I'll be bidding for him for sure. Hopefully the price got cheaper after Thursday's outing.

JC Ramirez: Ramirez has been a nice find for the Angels, starting seven games for the team after he began the year in the bullpen. He has allowed three runs or fewer in five of those seven starts and the fill-in has solidified his spot in the rotation. Ramirez has limited walks well at only 2.27 BB/9, and while his strikeout rate isn't high, it's serviceable at 7.36 K/9. Not much about Ramirez necessarily jumps off the page, but he also doesn't have any significant red flags aside from his 25.4 percent line drive, which needs to come down a little bit. Ramirez has two road games this week, both in good parks to pitch, at Tampa Bay and Miami. The Tampa Bay start scares me a bit, as the Rays have been hitting a lot of homers and have moved into the top 10 in runs in MLB, but in the second start, the Marlins are in the bottom 10 in MLB in both runs and OPS. Ramirez likely is owned in many 15-teamers, but I like a small bid in 12-teamers if you need an arm, as I don't think he will hurt you, and if he can survive the Rays start, he could end up with a very nice week off the waiver wire.

A Closer Look

After a rough outing on Monday night against the A's where he walked four guys while only registering one out, Edwin Diaz was pulled from the closer role for the Mariners. This was a particularly rough decision for fantasy owners, as Diaz was among the top 10 closers selected in every draft. Losing your top closer in any sort of deep league is extremely damaging. While Diaz has hit a few bumps so far this season, this move seemed like a pretty quick hook by manager Scott Servais. Diaz is still striking out guys at a nice rate (11.74 K/9) but has had walk issues (5.87 BB/9) and home run issues (2.35 HR/9).

The Mariners don't appear to have an easy swap in for saves to replace Diaz and seem likely to mix and match while Diaz gets himself figured out. The top choices to snag some saves for now appear to be and Marc Rzepczynski, James Pazos and Tony Zych. Rzepczynski has been great this year with a 1.64 ERA, but historically he's better suited as a situational lefty, so it's tough to see him getting any saves that aren't completely matchup based. Pazos, a lefty acquired from the Yankees in the off-season, has been a nice find for the Mariners and has posted a 2.41 ERA to go with a sparkling 12.05 K/9 rate. Pazos has limited hard contact to a low 17.4 percent while also inducing more than 60 percent ground balls. He, like Rzepczynski, has been more effective against lefties but has been decent against righties with a .250/.345/.426 line against him. Finally, there is Zych who has a 2.45 ERA, but that comes with a 4.49 FIP, as his strikeouts are only at 7.36 K.9 and his issues with walks persist at a 4.91 BB/9 clip. My favorite arm in the bullpen if you want to bid on one is Pazos, but I think they base it on matchups for now, and Zych will see save opportunities when a line of righties are due up in the ninth. More than anything, I'd hold onto Diaz and add him right away if anyone drops him, and in trade leagues, I'd look to make an offer for him. He's still the best arm in that pen and was truly dominant last year. I see him taking that role back in the short term.

Series of the Weekend

Indians at Astros. I'm going back to an Astros series this weekend because this squad is just on fire. The Astros has won nine of their last 10 games and 14 of their last 17. In their last 10 games, they have scored 63 runs while allowing three runs or fewer in eight of those contests. The work of the Astros bullpen has been fun to watch, particularly that of setup men Chris Devenski and James Hoyt. In a combined 32.1 innings between the two relievers, they have managed to strike out a remarkable 62 batters. This team is now scoring, getting great pitching from their top three starters and building a dominant back end of the bullpen that could be a huge problem for opposing teams come playoff time.

The Indians have suffered a bit of post-World Series lag heading into this big weekend series with a record of only 20-19. Surprisingly, Cleveland has had trouble scoring so far this season, ranking only 21st in MLB in runs scored and 20th in OPS. The biggest issue for the Indians offense has been with free agency signee Edwin Encarnacion who enters the weekend hitting only .203 with an OPS under .700. The Indians do catch a break as they will miss both Dallas Keuchel and Lance McCullers in this three-game set.

The Indians are still missing Corey Kluber, and Carlos Carrasco has been pushed back so he'll miss the series also, but it should be interesting to see how Cleveland competes in Houston and if they can get the offense going enough to score with the Astros. This could be a preview of a playoff series in the AL and could be a big series for Cleveland to get their season pointed in the right direction.