Collette Calls: Third Time is Bad Time

Simply put, it's a matter of when, not if, for the DH to be a universal rule. I would be surprised if it did not happen in the next labor negotiation with a tradeoff of going to 26-man rosters given how teams are using pitching these days. Then again, they may implement a rule where it is 26, but teams have to carry 13 hitters and 13 pitchers.

Back on topic; the "Times Through the Order Penalty" is a real thing. As a whole, a pitcher does worse each progressive time through a batting order.

The crazy part about this TTOP issue this year is the number of American League pitchers who are high on the list. Those skippers have bullpens to use and can freely swap the pitcher out without any other impact to the lineup card, and yet have decided to leave these pitchers in for them to absorb unnecessary damage. The one that is closest to my heart is Nate Eovaldi.

If you were to look at his 4.08 ERA, you would think he is not doing well. In fact, he has pitched very well this year and would have a 2.56 ERA if Kevin Cash had not left him in for longer starts this month. It is no secret the Rays are running out of healthy pitchers, and the "opener" strategy was berthed from necessity rather than desire. Chris Archer, Jacob Faria and Yonny Chirinos are on the disabled list. The next three guys on the pre-season depth chart – Brent Honeywell, Jose De Leon and Anthony Banda – each have zippers in their elbow and are out for another calendar year. They have had to use the Jonny Bullpen strategy two or three times per week just to survive. Eovaldi has been asked to absorb some extra work to give the pen a rest and it has twice come back to bite him hard given he has a notorious times through the order penalty as a two-pitch pitcher:

• June 13 vs. NYY: 7.1 IP, 5 ER. Through seven innings, Eovaldi had allowed two runs and had faced 27 batters. The data screamed pull him out, but Cash left him in there for the eighth. Groundout, single, single, intentional walk, (Eovaldi pulled) and Sanchez clears the bases with a double.

• June 20 vs. HOU: 18 batters faced through five innings with only a solo HR to Altuve. Left out there to begin the sixth and face everyone a third time. Next three batters hit solo homers before he retired the next three hitters. 


Those two extended events, in the face of the data, have impacted Eovaldi's ERA by one and a half runs. He was asked to get some extra batters out to help the team, so it makes some sense, particularly for a team that is not in playoff contention. In fact, those conditions could be applied to three of the five pitchers who have been most impacted by the TTOP, but not two of them.

Given the depth of the Yankees' bullpen, Boone would be wise to shorten Tanaka's starts and hand things over to the pen sooner rather than later. Tanaka has only been yanked once in 13 starts before the TTOP has kicked in, but he has also been allowed to face the heart of the opposing lineup in all but three starts. Ironically, he had his best outing of the season in an extended outing against Minnesota in which he faced a season-high 26 batters. However, he has avoided the long ball in just two of his 13 outings, and the multi-homer games have each been when he has faced 22 to 25 batters in a game.

One thing that may be in play with Tanaka is that this is the first time in his career the TTOP has been this punitive on his numbers as he has historically done a good job of limiting his damage in those situations.

I am going to skip over Alex Cobb and Homer Bailey because they have no fantasy value this year. Cobb's splitter is still AWOL, and it would take a miracle for him to get a win for a team that is on pace to finish 49-113 on the season. Bailey is still on the disabled list with a knee problem and is now on a fourth consecutive season with an ERA higher than 5.50. The strikeout rate is non-existent, but his large contract is still quite present so the Reds will continue to roll him out there.

Jose Quintana is all over the place as he goes through a lineup. The first time through, he is quite effective. The second time through, he remains quite effective save a few ill-timed long balls. If he is left in the game after two times through the order, the results have been absolutely disastrous:

Odorizzi has a long history of struggling when he is left in the game too long. I frankly grew tired of writingg about it on my Rays blog, but he, like Quintana, is a two-pitch guy. Sure, Odorizzi has a cutter and a curveball, but the two pitches are not even good pitches in their current forms Odorizzi gets a lot of rises and run off his fastball, and the split-change stays down and allows him to use the tenets of effective velocity rather well early in games. As the game goes on, his numbers dive much like the movement on his split-change:

Conversely, there are pitchers that do exceedingly well the third time through the order. James Paxton has been the best pitcher in the league after two times through the order with a 1.72 ERA, and Gerrit Cole has been right behind him at 1.82. That is no surprise given both pitchers have dominant stuff and can control a game when they're hitting their spots with their high-velocity fastballs and sharp breaking balls. The surprise I want to focus on is the guy with a 1.88 ERA after two times through the order: Reynaldo Lopez.

In my AL Central Bold Predictions piece, I said that Lopez would be the most valuable starting pitcher on his team. That prediction has held up quite well at the midpoint of the season. The main reason I liked Lopez coming into the season was that he was getting his third pitch back as he had lost his curveball during the 2017 season and was mostly pitching of a good fastball and a blah changeup. The Lopez we saw pitching for the Nationals with the great curve was much different than the one we say slog through the 2017 season with the White Sox after his promotion from Charlotte.

This season, his times through the order splits put together an interesting story:

Lopez has pitched to at least 25 batters in 11 of his 16 starts, and in those outings, and he as 2.43 ERA. In the other five starts, he has allowed 19 earned runs in 20 innings, most of which came against two disastrous outings against Cleveland and another one against Pittsburgh in which he failed to record an out in the third inning.

The .178 BABIP and the 4.03 FIP in this split point to what could be and how fortunate Lopez has been against the TTOP odds this season. The StatCast data shows that Lopez's expected weighted on-base average of .391 is 147 higher than his actual .244 weighted on-base average in these splits.

In short, while Lopez has been a pleasant surprise, his overall ERA overperformance is being mostly stood up by an even more improbable overperformance of his numbers with increased exposure. How is Lopez holding batters to a .155 average the third time through the order when they hit nearly .300 against him the second time through? That is a mystery as his pitch mixture in that split is no different from his mixture the first two times through the order. The bigger picture is that he has been quite fortunate to this point of the season and it is unlikely he will remain this high on this particular leaderboard let alone in the top 20 by season's end.

The rest of season futures for Tanaka, Quintana and Odorizzi could improve if their skippers do a better job of recognizing the data and pulling them a batter early rather than a batter too late. For Lopez, the ride has been fun, but you should consider cashing him in at his current value because the foundation upon which his serviceable season is built upon is of George Bluth quality construction.