Last week, I wrote about value pitchers in DFS, and the group as a whole did very well. Starting pitching has been a mess early this season and it has caused fantasy baseball owners to circle the wagons on how to approach it.
This week, let's dig deep into the data and look for teams and situations that are good matchups for starting pitchers. Taking starting pitchers at home against the weakest lineups is the safest play in DFS baseball (home pitchers average 23.2 points per game, while road pitchers average 17.0), but things change, so you need to track starting lineups to find the weakest.
Ten teams stand out as significantly worse offensively than the rest of the league: Tigers, Marlins, Royals, Reds, Indians, Giants, Padres, Rockies, Pirates and Angels.
Use Home Pitchers Against these Teams
Tigers
The best starting pitching scenario this year is facing the Tigers when they are on the road. Starting pitchers average 23.2 against them. Of nine road games, eight have gone under the total (straight to start the season) and only one over. The Tigers have scored 19 runs in nine road games (2.1 average runs). In the nine starts, pitchers have averaged 23.23 points per game. In seven of nine games, pitchers averaged at least 20 points per game. They have a major-league low of 11 home runs. No one else has less than 16.
Marlins
In six games, opposing pitchers at home have averaged 21.8 points per game against the Marlins.
Last week, I wrote about value pitchers in DFS, and the group as a whole did very well. Starting pitching has been a mess early this season and it has caused fantasy baseball owners to circle the wagons on how to approach it.
This week, let's dig deep into the data and look for teams and situations that are good matchups for starting pitchers. Taking starting pitchers at home against the weakest lineups is the safest play in DFS baseball (home pitchers average 23.2 points per game, while road pitchers average 17.0), but things change, so you need to track starting lineups to find the weakest.
Ten teams stand out as significantly worse offensively than the rest of the league: Tigers, Marlins, Royals, Reds, Indians, Giants, Padres, Rockies, Pirates and Angels.
Use Home Pitchers Against these Teams
Tigers
The best starting pitching scenario this year is facing the Tigers when they are on the road. Starting pitchers average 23.2 against them. Of nine road games, eight have gone under the total (straight to start the season) and only one over. The Tigers have scored 19 runs in nine road games (2.1 average runs). In the nine starts, pitchers have averaged 23.23 points per game. In seven of nine games, pitchers averaged at least 20 points per game. They have a major-league low of 11 home runs. No one else has less than 16.
Marlins
In six games, opposing pitchers at home have averaged 21.8 points per game against the Marlins. Four of the six were for at least 19.65 points. The other two games were 12.15 and 13.9. Five out of the six games have gone under the total. The only game that went over the total saw the Reds win 14-0. The Marlins have averaged eight runs in six road games (1.33 runs).
Royals
In 10 games, opposing pitchers at home have averaged 21.4 points per game against the Royals. Seven of 10 games have been at least 21 points. One game is dragging down the average (Ervin Santana 5.85). Without that game, the average score would be 23.1. The Royals have scored more than four runs in only two of 10 road games.
Reds
Opposing pitchers at home have averaged 20.8 per game against the Reds in 11 games. In seven of those games, pitchers hit at least 20 points. Nine of the 11 road games went under the total, including the last seven in a row. The Reds have scored more than four runs only twice on the road this season.
Indians
In 12 games, pitchers at home have averaged 19.8 points per game against the Indians. A big part of the Indians' woes have been due to the injury to Francisco Lindor, who is now back, so we need to take that into consideration. Still, the Indians lineup is not very good. In four of the games, starting pitchers averaged more than 29 points per game. The lowest scoring games were 5.6, 6.1, and 6.8 (Spencer Turnbull, Jordan Zimmerman, Jakob Junis).
Giants
In 13 road games, the Giants have allowed opposing starting pitchers to average 19 points per game. Ten of 13 were at least 16 points or more; seven were for 20 points or more. They have scored more than five runs only three times in the 13 road games (nine were three runs or less) for an average of 2.8 runs. The majority of their games have totals in the 7.0-7.5 range, and while I'm covering just the road here, they allowed just as many points at home.
Padres
In 10 games against the Padres, home pitchers have averaged 19 points per game. Only three of 10 fell less than 18 points with four at least 23 points. Even though the Padres rank 11th in home runs, the rest of their power numbers are bottom 10 in baseball, and they are bottom 5 in strikeouts.
Rockies
The Rockies have been one of the worst hitting teams in baseball through the first three weeks. They are 8-3-2 to the over in their 13 road games. Pitchers have averaged 18.3 points against them. Six of the 13 games had pitchers with at least 20 points. Their game totals range from 6.5-7.5 on the road vs. 10.0-11.5 at Coors.
Pirates
Pitchers have scored 18.3 points against the Pirates in 10 games, including 19 points in six games. The Pirates have averaged only 3.3 runs in 10 road games and seven of the 10 games have gone under the total. They also play a lot of close games, so taking pitchers on both sides has been optimal.
Angels
Outside of Mike Trout, there is not much in the Angels lineup that strikes fear in pitchers. In 10 road games, starting pitchers have averaged 17.8 points and only two were less than 17. While it is a small sample, left-handed starting pitchers averaged 18.3 in six games vs. right-handed pitchers, only 9.6 in 15 games.
