This article is part of our MLB Barometer series.
With Edwin Encarnacion's move to the Yankees, trade season is officially upon us. The trade deadline is still a month and a half away, so it may take some time for things to really get going, but that's good news for fantasy players. Correctly adjusting your valuations of players when their circumstances change is one skill, but predicting how players' values will change before their circumstances do is another, higher-level talent. It's considerably more difficult and more likely to backfire, but the surplus value that can be gained if your predictions are correct represents a huge opportunity to differentiate yourself from the rest of your league.
Not all trades improve a player's fantasy value. Closers on bad teams are at the greatest risk to lose value, as they're often only good enough to be setup men on contenders. Shane Greene and Sergio Romo exemplify that archetype. Will Smith and Ken Giles are good enough to close for most teams, but nothing is stopping a team like the Dodgers from acquiring one of them to pitch in front of a top-tier closer like Kenley Jansen. The same could be said for the likes of Sean Doolittle or Kirby Yates should their teams choose to sell. It's entirely possible that all of those players remain in closer situations for the rest of the year, but their value can go down far more than it can go up. It may be worth shopping those arms before trade talks pick up and