Mound Musings: Life, the Universe and Everything

At least a couple of times each season, I take a deep breath and then ask the ultimate question, seeking the ultimate answer. There are always a handful of random thoughts that are interesting, unbelievable, or both, and it is an opportunity to throw some thoughts on the field that may not have been yet discussed in the more topic-focused editions of the Musings. Maybe you have an arm in mind you'd like to evaluate, or perhaps a pitching thought to toss out there? It's worth a shot, so let's go.

Jumping up on the soapbox: I rarely get on a soapbox. I walk around them, perhaps even sit on them to take a rest, but today I am going to climb up and speak out. Yes, these are the author's opinions, but I think others might be in agreement.

I love baseball. I have loved baseball for almost as long as I can remember. I suppose you could say I am also a traditionalist, and that raises the question, is baseball today wandering too far from its traditional roots? I am a pitching enthusiast, but while that could make me seem a bit biased, I appreciate all aspects of the game including hitting, fielding, running and the finer points of the sport. Not surprisingly, I also like slo-pitch softball. I played for years. However, I believe they are, and should remain, separate entities. I'll continue to go to a MLB venue for the former, and to a park district diamond for the latter, thank you.

Now, a postage stamp strike zone, a super ball covered in leather with painted seams and a new "approach" to hitting have seriously blurred the distinctions between the two. I even read that there could soon be a new rule allowing hitters to "steal" first base if a pitch gets past the catcher regardless of the count? Come on! It doesn't take a genius to read the intent of something that ridiculous. Being unwilling to risk extra baserunners, pitchers will be compelled to throw fewer breaking balls that could end up in the dirt. More fastballs, in the middle of the strike zone. I wonder what the results will be. 

Unfortunately (I think), I'm not on the rules committee. That means we, as members of the fantasy community, will have to adjust to the avalanche of home runs. I have been studying the aspects of pitching that seem to be most effective, as some pitchers are weathering the storm much better than others. Command is becoming increasingly more predictive than velocity. Pitchers need to be comfortable pitching inside, and more importantly, up in the strike zone. Home runs are far more likely to come on pitches in the lower half of the zone. Minimize baserunners. Walks have always been problematic, but putting men on base in front of a 160-pound "power" hitter is a recipe for meltdown. You can be sure I'll continue to look for keys to success. I love baseball.

Deal, or no deal: Open the case, Caitlyn. Ohhh nooo! $1,000,000 is off the board! The question on everyone's mind is, deal, or no deal, and it's getting very complicated. Just a couple weeks ago it seemed pretty easy to pick out the buyers and sellers, but things aren't so clear cut right now, and just a few days from the single trading deadline, the majority of teams still have realistic playoff chances. Decisions will have to be made, but the teams with some of the most appealing pitchers may or may not be willing to part with the hottest commodities. Is a wildcard spot worth playing things out?

So far we've seen guys like Andrew Cashner, Homer Bailey and Drew Smyly change uniforms. Be still my beating heart! Surely there will be more exciting deals ahead, however there may not be as many as initially expected. Too many presumed sellers are playing too well. Madison Bumgarner and Will Smith's Giants once threatened Miami for the worst record in the National League. No more. They have won 17 of their last 20 games and have a legitimate shot at a wild card berth. Once buried in the AL Central standings, the Indians are now threatening the Twins for the top spot in the division. That is very likely at least significantly raising the price tag on Trevor Bauer and Brad Hand. Oakland continues to shadow the Astros in the AL West, which could move them into the buyer's column, albeit probably not in the market for the high-priced guys.

If these teams opt to stand pat (or even jump into the buyer's column) that likely would make the Mets' Noah Syndergaard the top starting pitcher at least being discussed. For the record, I think the Giants will still peddle Smith and/or Bumgarner but a possible division title could be too much for the Indians to pass up. The Mets would much rather trade Zack Wheeler, but Syndergaard is far more valuable and would bring a much, much higher return. It will be hard for the Mets to part with Thor, who is pitching better of late as he rediscovers fastball command and crisp slider, especially to the crosstown Yankees who have reportedly shown extreme interest, but the package they could net in this market could be a veritable gold mine. Make it count Mets.

Don't get me wrong, there will be some starters moving on, but they are more likely to be second tier – good pitchers, but probably not the marquee names. Marcus Stroman from Toronto and Matthew Boyd from Detroit should move (along with the closers from both teams). The take away here is demand far outpacing supply (so many teams are desperate), which means some teams will come away virtually empty-handed.

If you can't land a starter, build a bullpen: Whether they land a starter or not, several teams have a dire need for help in the bullpen. Clearly the Achilles heel for teams like Washington, Atlanta, Philadelphia, Boston and Tampa Bay is an underperforming bullpen. Thankfully for them, relievers should be somewhat more accessible. With Smith and Hand being question marks, look for acquisition interest to rapidly build for the Jays' Ken Giles, a handful of White Sox relievers like Alex Colome, Detroit's Shane Greene, the O's Mychal Givens and Seattle's Roenis Elias. There has even been talk of the Padres' Kirby Yates being discussed. I'd be a little surprised to see him move, but the hot market might tempt San Diego to listen more intently to offers. Obviously, if any of these guys move, there will be an impact for fantasy teams. Saves might dry up for some current closers, while new opportunities arise for relievers on their former teams. That's where a little speculation may pay off. I recently added Daniel Hudson to some of my rosters in anticipation of Giles being dealt.

Defense does make a difference: Regular readers know I frequently talk about things that can increase or decrease the value of a pitcher or pitchers. One thing I take into consideration, but haven't discussed as much is defense. It's not often a fantasy scoring category, but it does have an impact on your pitching performance. And, with the offense-first approach in today's game – guys who really should only DH are frequently being squeezed into lineups on a daily basis – it's becoming even more important.

I tend to look up the middle. And, with the nightly fireworks, I would suggest considering who will be manning centerfield behind your starting pitcher. You may not think it will make much difference, but perhaps you saw the Twins/Yankees game the other night? Aaron Hicks made a game-saving catch with the bases loaded for which Chad Green owners should be very appreciative. There are many examples. The Rays pitchers regularly benefit from the defensive prowess of Kevin Kiermaier. Here's a huge one. When the Giants acquired Kevin Pillar from Toronto, their pitcher's WHIPs and ERAs took an abrupt turn in a positive direction (while Blue Jays' pitchers took a hit in their peripherals). Sometimes, even an injury can be a factor. The Braves will be much better in the outfield with the recent return of Ender Inciarte. Ronald Acuna is definitely an offensive juggernaut, but his defense in centerfield, despite his speed, is not an asset. Just remember, it's more about range (denying hits) than errors.

There you have it – a few thoughts on what to watch for, who to watch and sometimes overlooked factors to consider when evaluating pitching choices for our fantasy teams. I anticipate having some significant trades to discuss next week.

Some Notable Rotation Ramblings:

• With injuries and ineffective performances rampant, I'm always looking for arms hoping for a second half boost. The Reds' Alex Wood will likely be activated soon after missing all season to date with back woes. He's certainly a competent starter when healthy and could be worth a waiver wire claim.
• Sean Manaea is another worthy of consideration. His first couple rehab starts were pretty ugly, but I don't put much emphasis on rehab peripherals, as they are more like spring training innings. Keep in mind, Manaea has been out longer and his injury was to his pitching shoulder, so there is inherently more risk.
• Phillies' right-hander Nick Pivetta has been on a roller coaster all season. He looked outstanding for a few starts, then pitched so poorly he was banished to the minors. He returned, initially pitched well again, then imploded and went to the pen. His stuff looks okay, but his release point is often a moving target.
• The pitcher who might impress me more than any other these days is Tampa Bay's Charlie Morton. I'm not saying he's the best pitcher in the game, albeit he could be included in that discussion, but he just keeps getting better with age. He's 35-years-old, and he's quite possibly pitching better than he ever has.
• Milwaukee's playoff chances took a huge hit when Brandon Woodruff, easily their best starting pitcher, landed on the injured list with an oblique strain. He's likely out until September, and it might be very difficult for the team to find enough quality arms to continue their quest for a wildcard playoff spot.
• M's veteran Mike Leake has probably pitched himself into the trading deadline consideration set. His 4.25 ERA, mostly compiled with a mix of very good and very bad outings, and a lackluster 1.24 WHIP, isn't going to excite many fantasy owners, but those numbers would be a step up for some contending rotations.

Endgame Odyssey:

Texas has lost Shawn Kelley to injury after he left the mound without throwing a pitch in a recent game. This likely reopens the door to saves for Jose Leclerc who has filthy stuff when he's right. Chris Martin is also a possibility, but I'd grab Leclerc if available. Hunter Strickland may return to Seattle's active roster next week, and I think there is a very good chance he'll see save chances fairly soon, especially with Roenis Elias being mentioned prominently in trade rumors. I'm sure the Royals would someday like to see Josh Staumont pitch the ninth inning. He can be almost unhittable but he's also prone to wildness. For the foreseeable future, Ian Kennedy's contract probably makes trading him unlikely, so he should continue closing. In St. Louis, Carlos Martinez is doing a respectable job since stepping in for the injured Jordan Hicks, and Andrew Miller appears to have turned his season around, but they are reportedly shopping for another arm to help out in the pen. The Brewers' rotation is a shambles, even more so with the injury to their top starter, while closer Josh Hader continues to shoulder an exhaustive workload. It remains to be seen if they will be buying at the deadline or opt to run up the white flag. Ray's top ninth-inning option, Jose Alvarado is hurt, and Diego Castillo has not returned to early-season form, ceding closer duties to homer-prone Emilio Pagan. A bullpen acquisition would seem to be in their immediate future.