This article is part of our Collette Calls series.
I threw up a poll on Twitter the other day to take the temperature of followers to see whether they thought Bo Bichette's 2020 ADP would end up being even higher than what we witnessed with Adalberto Mondesi this year. I was honestly surprised by how close the final results were:
There appears to be a heavy dose of recency bias given that Mondesi's ADP at the peak of draft season was 41. However, the more surprising result here is that 52 percent of the voters believe Bichette is a top-40 player. Thanks to the work @smada_bb does online, we have some early ADP from five leagues FanGraphs' Justin Mason has put together for early mock drafts (#2EarlyMocks). The folks participating in those drafts do not agree with the voters as his current ADP is 69, going as high 58 and as low as 79 in the five drafts so far as the 15th shortstop off the board. Mondesi currently has a ADP of 21 and has been the fifth shortstop off the board. Gleyber Torres is currently the player occupying the 40th overall ADP spot on the draft board, sandwiched in between Jonathan Villar and Blake Snell.
What would Bichette have to do to close the nearly 30-spot gap between his current ADP in a sample of size of n=5 and where 176 voters currently see him as a top 40 player?