Mound Musings: Life, the Universe and Everything

I can hardly believe the season is winding down! Mid-September means the annual awards edition of Mound Musings is next up, and finally, the Kids on Parade edition will follow to wrap up the 2019 baseball season. As we close it out, I thought I would cover a few random thoughts including my choice for the World Series, a key change to MLB roster composition next year, and some of the biggest surprises – at least to me – from the current season. Time to dive in, so let's go.

The 2019 World Series goes to: A little drumroll please … the Houston Astros take home the honors this October! Post-season success depends on many things, including some potent hitting. The Astros have that covered. Just ask the Oakland A's who suffered through a pair of games earlier this week where Houston piled up 36 runs. However, perhaps more importantly, a World Series champion needs at least three top-of-the-rotation starting pitchers.

Consider the scary prospect of facing off against Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole, and then Zack Greinke. Greinke has only been there about six weeks, but if you combine the stats of those three arms, it looks something like this. They have a 39-11 record, with a WHIP below 1.00, an ERA well below 3.00, and an incredible 577 strikeouts in 427 innings. That inning total has an impact, too. They are averaging nearly 6.60 innings per start, saving wear and tear on a pretty solid bullpen. Speaking of their bullpen, they are hoping to have ace set-up man, Ryan Pressly, back from a knee injury for the last  seven to 10 days of the regular season, in time for him to tune up in preparation for the playoffs.

I'm not even sure who will face the Astros in the finale. I lean to the incredibly deep Dodgers, but Atlanta has so much youthfully exuberant talent, and potentially lurking in the shadows, only the Washington Nationals with Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg and Patrick Corbin can possibly match that playoff rotation.

Rosters will be a bit different next season: There is a rule change due to take effect next season regarding roster size, and it could have fantasy implications. For most of the season, until August 31, teams will be able to carry one additional player on their active roster. That 26th man could very possibly be yet another pitcher. On the flip side, when rosters expand in September, the roster size will only increase to 28 rather than the current 40 man rosters. It makes fantasy more manageable, but we may see fewer kids.

Most teams have expanded their pitching staffs with the frequency of "bullpen" games steadily increasing. As much as I hate to see it, very few teams have enough arms capable of consistently giving them six or seven innings, facing the opponent's batting order three or four times. That extra player could make it even easier to use the "opener" approach to pitching assignments. Unfortunately, that will make it even more challenging to build a winning fantasy staff and will probably make good traditional starters somewhat more valuable, especially in quality start leagues.

Coincidentally, to make that possible, many teams are relying heavily on a new breed of super utility players. With a short bench, these versatile players like DJ LeMahieu and Marwin Gonzalez, who can play a different position every day, are becoming a huge key to success. And, they are also playing key roles on many of the top fantasy teams.

Would you call it dedicated, stubborn or just plain crazy: Most regular readers know I am generally resistant to "churning" my pitching staff. That is, I don't make an excessive numbers of drops and/or additions during the season. I sometimes get asked why. Obviously, it happens most often when one of my pitchers is struggling, while others, potentially on the waiver wire, are enjoying success.

Am I that dedicated to the struggling pitcher? Am I just stubborn, and refuse to cut the struggling guy? Or am I, as some would probably say, just plain crazy? The answer to all three is yes! I suppose the most important factor is confidence in my evaluations of specific pitchers. I am FAR from perfect, but I have enjoyed enough success to believe a pitcher worthy of my interest in having him on my roster will ultimately perform. There have been some rough rides to be sure. Most famous among them is probably the human roller coaster, Kevin Gausman. He recently tossed two innings in relief, striking out all six batters he faced without breaking a sweat. In his next outing, he couldn't spot anything and he was totally ineffective.

Maybe there is one other consideration. A long time ago, I gave up on a couple pitchers, and they blossomed into everything I thought they would be – on another owner's roster. That was hard! I have Gausman stashed on all my rosters right now. I'm going to have some hard decisions this winter. This season has been brutal, for the most part, and he's now 28-years-old. It may be time for me to run up the white flag. But, if I do, you might want to consider grabbing him. It's there. I still see it.

My leader board for 2019 surprises and my anticipated futures for these guys: To be honest, I could list many "surprises" here, so I had to be pretty picky in narrowing it down to just a few. These are pitchers who have posted some impressive numbers on the positive side of the ledger. There are plenty who could balance it out on the negative side, but let's take a look at a few who had big seasons in 2019, and also see if we can pull out the crystal ball to predict what we can expect going forward.

• Eduardo Rodriguez – If I had told you last spring that I wanted to place a bet on Rodriguez winning more games for Boston in 2019 than Chris Sale, David Price and Nathan Eovaldi combined, I'm guessing you would have given me very long odds. It's going to happen. He has 17 Ws while the other three have combined for just 16. He has pitched better in the second half (at the break, his ERA was a rather unsightly 4.65), but there is a lot to be said for run support, and the Red Sox explosive offense has averaged nearly eight runs a game in his starts. He's an ideal example of why you shouldn't pay just for wins on draft day. Expect back-of-the-rotation production next year.
• Dakota Hudson – The Cardinals are likely to be in the postseason, and Hudson is a big part of the reason why. He wasn't even in the Cardinals' rotation the first month of the season, but he now owns a 15-6 record with a tidy 3.40 ERA. To put that in perspective, fellow Cards' starter Jack Flaherty is just 10-7. Hudson's season actually has a number of red flags. He has just average stuff, but his delivery is a bit deceptive (which helps). He doesn't miss a lot of bats, and perhaps most worrisome, a high walk rate has helped inflate his WHIP to a hazardous 1.40. Realistically, I think he is a fringy starter going forward. So if a St. Louis pitcher is on your wish list next spring, I'd invest in Flaherty.
• Shane Bieber – This one may be more of a surprise to me than to some other analysts. I'll admit, while I thought he might top out as a league average starter, he has stepped up and made huge strides this year. Bieber's stuff is similar to last season. He has a good pitch mix and excellent command of the entire repertoire. So why the different outlook? In a word, maturity. He displays a remarkable mound presence, his pitch sequencing continues to improve, and he clearly has a detailed plan for every hitter. He has pretty much won me over. I think he status as a very reliable starting pitcher is likely to continue.

There you have it – a few thoughts on what to watch for, who to watch and sometimes overlooked factors to consider when evaluating pitching choices for our fantasy teams.

Some Notable Rotation Ramblings:

• The Giants had to be excited about Johnny Cueto's return. He needed just 69 pitches to cover five scoreless innings against the Pirates. He allowed one hit, and struck out four while walking just one, which is the biggest reason for optimism. Limited value this year, but 2020 could be a productive season.
• Trevor Richards is another worthy of consideration. The Rays have deployed him as both a traditional starter and a primary reliever, but I think he has a good chance of ending up as a starter in their rotation. Tampa Bay's success rate with young arms they acquire boosts his prospects for fantasy relevance.
• One of the next pitchers expected to return from the injured list in the near future is San Diego's Garrett Richards. He tried rest and rehab rather than undergoing Tommy John surgery, but eventually underwent the procedure. His recent rehab appearances have been mixed, but the velocity is back. An intriguing possibility.
• After a rocky beginning, Seattle's Justus Sheffield has pitched reasonably well in his last couple starts, but he's going to have to improve his command to become a trusted fantasy starter. A fulltime rotation spot is in his future, and he has pretty good stuff, but young southpaws often take time to lock in.
• I want to add one more name to the pitchers to target list. Sonny Gray has been consistently adding to his futures value on the strength of reliable command of a nice arsenal, especially one my favorite curveballs. You hear "rolling off a table" all the time to describe nasty breaking balls, but his really does. Wow.
• Just after making my list of potential pitchers to target next spring, the Twins' Michael Pineda was handed a 60-game suspension for a banned substance. He'll miss the rest of this season – a big hit to their playoff hopes – and the first few weeks of next year. It's really hard to judge how this will impact him.

Endgame Odyssey:

Pittsburgh has lost reliever Kyle Crick for the rest of the season due to an injury he sustained when he and closer Felipe Vazquez apparently got into a clubhouse altercation. Not the best situation for the Pirates. Carlos Martinez has done a solid job after stepping into the closer's gig when Jordan Hicks underwent Tommy John surgery. Indications are he could return to the rotation next year, and with Hicks out until at least midseason, the Cardinals could hold open auditions for an interim closer. Once one of the strongest bullpens in baseball, a couple deadline deals, and injuries to a few others including top set-up man, Tony Watson, and closer Will Smith, have left the Giants searching for answers, The near future could turn out to be auditions for 2020 as well. A deep sleeper for holds and perhaps even an occasional save may be emerging in Seattle. Dan Altavilla has not been scored upon since returning from the injured list earlier this month, and he's beginning to see higher leverage innings. Keep a close eye on his usage. I just read that Cleveland's Brad Hand is scheduled for an MRI to assess an unspecified arm injury after not bouncing back as expected from his last outing. At this stage of the season, that certainly doesn't bode well. If he is forced to miss much time, the endgame in Cleveland could get interesting. They used three pitchers – each retiring one batter with no hits – to close Wednesday's 4-3 win.