The Z Files: Fun With the First Round

My approach to drafting may seem contradictory. A deep understanding of projection and valuation theory unveils the inaccuracies of both, yet I prefer to work from an objective foundation, generated from projections and valuation. That is, rankings are a starting point. Drafting isn't about taking one from the top; it's about team construction, reading the room and managing risk. Rankings are not absolute.

If rankings are not absolute, it helps having an idea how far one can stray. One approach is factoring in the error of projections and the resultant expected earnings to determine error bars. This is viable and will be looked at in future discussions. Today though, we'll take a different approach, having some fun with the batters likely to be drafted early in the first round of 2020 leagues.

I'm currently churning out my first-run projections with the disclaimer they're subject to change. We're going to look at seven hitters: Ronald Acuna, Cody Bellinger, Mookie Betts, Francisco Lindor, Mike Trout, Trea Turner and Christian Yelich. All have been taken in the top five in early drafts or mocks.

Below are my projections, giving 650 plate appearances to each. I don't have the complete set of 2020 batters done, so to determine projected earnings, I replaced their 2019 final numbers with the projection and computed values for a 15-team mixed league.

You can quibble with my projections, but for the sake of this discussion, they're just numbers. They'll be plenty of opportunity later to call me out on any of the actual projections. The takeaway is the above would be my rankings after taking playing time out of the equation.

Here's my initial playing time expectation for each:

Projecting playing time is another discussion worthy of its own treatment. I've written about it previously with the primary lesson being it's rare to maintain an elevated level of playing time, so the conservative route is most prudent. Based on some of the above, I should practice what I preach considering I have a very aggressive expectation for several of the batters, especially Acuna and Trout.

Projecting playing time for Trout is a chore. He's averaged 129 games with 572 PA the past three seasons, yet no one seems to label him as injury prone. By comparison, Bryce Harper has averaged 142 games with 623 PA over the same period. Granted, Harper's numbers have fallen off, but he's also penalized for missing time when discussed in a fantasy baseball sense. The thing with Trout is prior to this past season, the bulk of time he missed emanated from jamming his thumb (2017) and wrist (2018) while sliding. In 2019, his campaign was cut short with a sore foot, ultimately requiring surgery to remove a neuroma. A full recovery is expected. None of these issues can be deemed chronic, but his playing time is still a dart throw, especially since the Angels outfielder averaged 158 games from 2013-2016.

Yelich also ended the year with an injury, fracturing his kneecap. He's also expected to be 100 percent by spring training, so an expectation similar to 2017 and 2018 is reasonable.

I know you're curious, so here's my rankings incorporating the above playing time.

I don't know if I can classify it as a surprise, but there's no change in order with the primary difference being Acuna closes the gap to the point any of Trout, Yelich or Acuna are in play for the top overall pick. That said, there's a couple of major considerations when opting between the three, keeping in mind you may disagree with my baseline expectations. There's little room for Acuna to play more than anticipated, whereas Trout and Yelich have some upside with respect to plate appearances. Furthermore, the above assumes Trout and Yelich will miss some time, allowing for another hitter to fill that roster spot while they're out. It essentially boils down to who I feel will play more, Trout or Yelich. However, the gap between Acuna and the rest render the Braves superstar my third choice, as there's a buffer if he happens to miss some action.

For players at this level, 15 PA equates to about $2 of earnings. Again, ignoring the intrinsic margin of error in projections and values, all it takes is some combination of two players with $2 of earnings gaining and losing 15 PA for them to flip in the rankings. Adding 10 PA to Bellinger while stripping Turner of five jumps Bellinger over Turner. This further emphasizes how rankings are a starting point. Turner and Bellinger are essentially worth the same, but they're completely different players, eligible at different positions, offering a different array of production. This feeds into the roster construction element of drafting.

The chief lesson from this is playing time is as important, if not more so, than rate of production. The best part is while you may not want to go through the tedious process of generating a baseline projection, you can easily formulate an opinion on playing time. The dirty little secret of projections is the skill aspect between sources differs, but the driving force is playing time. If you're more bullish on a player's playing time, that's enough to push them up your rankings.

Another thing I like to do with raw rankings is play, "What would it take?" This calls into play the range of projections and earnings. If team construction calls for power from an outfielder but the highest ranked players are infielders or outfielders with speed, I ask, "What would it take for this outfielder to be ranked ahead of the rest?" If the necessary stats are plausible, there's nothing wrong with selecting that player. To illustrate this, let's play, "What would it take to be the first overall pick?", based off my initial expectations. The assumption is the other six guys stay the same.

Christian Yelich

Simply adding 17 PA thrusts Yelich into the top spot. Since he accrued 695 PA in 2017, there's precedence for 684. If you're not worried about Yelich coming back from his fractured kneecap and expect him to continue batting from the two hole, 684 PA is optimistic, but it's well within reach.

Ronald Acuna

This one is easy, and I suspect something many of you already believe to be likely. All Acuna needs to do is steal two more bases, bringing his total to 28. Considering he swiped 37 this past season, 28 seems like nothing. In fact, my projection of 26 seems light – and maybe it is. From a game theory point of view, I put less trust into steals than the other categories. Yes, there's skill involved, but there also opportunity and desire. I'm not saying Acuna doesn't want to steal bases, it's just that so much must fall into place, especially for such an important player. Still, anyone expecting at least 30 pilfers from Acuna is perfectly justified taking him first overall.

Trea Turner

Now it gets harder as Yelich and Acuna both were already on Trout's heels. In Turner's favor is how valuable steals are in today's landscape. Giving the shortstop 30 more PA and 48 steals vaults him to the top spot. Finishing with 681 PA isn't a huge stretch, as Turner's injuries have come from being hit by a pitch, once while bunting. In 2018, he amassed 740 PA. Swiping 48 bags is a sizable leap, but within the realm of possibility. He nabbed 46 in 2017 in only 98 games. Turner is more reliable for speed than Acuna, hence is more likely to continue to run. From a team philosophy standpoint, the Nationals led the league in steals over the second half. Turner was selected with the fourth pick in a league I've already drafted. While I'm not saying I'd take him there, there's a plausible path to being worthy of the pick.

Cody Bellinger

Obviously, no one is calling for Bellinger to be the top pick, but could he end up as the top fantasy performer? He can if he gets 30 more PA while smashing 46 homers and stealing 17 bases. Bellinger is at a disadvantage in terms of playing time, as he's occasionally benched against tough southpaws and the Dodgers have a deep bench with capable fill-ins to give him a day off. Still, the first baseman/outfielder set a career best with 660 PA last season, so jumping to 674 is doable. He bopped 47 homers in 2019, so whacking 46 is obviously viable. The steals will be tougher, but he's trending upwards with 10, 14 and 15 this season, so 17 isn't out of the question. A lot has to go right, but an argument can be made for Bellinger occupying the top spot.

Mookie Betts

Betts was the top fantasy player in 2016 and 2018, so it's obvious he'll return to that level in an even-numbered year, right? Maybe, but based on my initial projection, it won't be easy. First off, he'll need to add 20 more PA, but since Betts has eclipsed 700 in three of the past four seasons, 705 is reasonable. Next, Betts must improve his average to .318 while knocking 35 out of the yard and pilfering 27 bags. A couple fewer long balls with an extra steal or two will also do the trick. Betts has matched or surpassed all these numbers in the past, so who's to say he can't do it again? To be honest, Betts inclusion serves as a reminder that recency bias is pushing him out of the top five. He easily belongs there and is looking like the rare first-round bargain in early drafts.

Francisco Lindor

Lindor's presence here also has ulterior motives as can be witnessed via the above rankings. Many are drafting the Indians shortstop in the top five. While I of course feel he's a great player, that's an overdraft. But, in the spirit of this exercise, what would it take for Lindor to crack the top quintet? The easy adjustment is playing time as he rarely missed a game before this season, average 735 PA from 2017-2018. Let's plug that in. Next, the chief reason Lindor trails the rest is batting average. He batted .306 in his first two seasons but has averaged .278 the latter three campaigns. Let's say he has some batted ball luck and returns to the .300 mark. His career bests are 38 homers and 25 steals. Adjusting lifts Lindor to the fifth spot, where some have taken him. All he must do is perform as he's done in the past, without getting hurt and getting some good fortune on balls in play. While I'm not saying it can't happen, my lean is Betts in the fifth spot, disagreeing with the current market.

We all know the saying, "You can't win a league in the first round, but you can lose it." Taking any of Trout, Acuna or Yelich with the first three picks is fine. Choosing any one of Bellinger, Betts, Turner or Lindor with the fourth through seventh is perfectly acceptable. That said, it's more than a matter of picking a name from a hat.