Farm Futures: Anticipating Callup Dates

Getting an Extra Year of Control

According to the current CBA, players are entitled to free agency after six or more years of major-league service time. A year of service time is defined as 172 days on a major-league roster. This year's MLB regular season stretches 186 days. As long as a player is called up with fewer than 172 days remaining in the season, they will be under their current team's control for seven years, instead of six. With most players, this is far more important than saving $10 or even $20 million by dodging Super Two status. Good players are eventually going to get paid if they stay good, but having that extra year of control puts a team in a better bargaining position when they start to talk about a contract extension with young players, and it also gives the team an extra year right in the middle of that player's prime.

None of this should be celebrated — teams never get into trouble for this, but it is technically against MLB rules to keep a player in the minors specifically for service-time reasons, and more importantly, I believe it is an unethical practice. However, it is part of my job to try to predict when players will be up, and April 10 is this year's date when teams can start calling up top prospects and retain that extra year of control.

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Top prospects expected to break camp in the majors: Gavin Lux, Luis Robert, Jesus Luzardo, Jose Urquidy, Mitch Keller, Sean Murphy, Austin Hays, Sam Hilliard, Nick Solak, Jake Fraley, Carter Kieboom, Evan White

2020 MLB ETA tied to health: A.J. Puk (shoulder), Dustin May (side), Michael Kopech (building up after TJS), Brendan McKay (shoulder)

Here are this year's top options to be called up on, or shortly after, April 10:

Dylan Carlson, OF, Cardinals

It's tough to know exactly what a front office might be thinking, but sometimes they will tell you:

If you have an Oscar Taveras/Albert Pujols type who is showing this spring that he is big-league ready, and the "incumbents" are Tyler O'Neill, Harrison Bader and Dexter Fowler, it's safe to say the Taveras/Pujols type will be up in short order. I wouldn't be shocked if the Cardinals put Carlson on the Opening Day roster, as they will need every possible win to get into the playoffs this year (FanGraphs projects them to win 83 games). If he is sent to Triple-A, I think it will be to get the Kris Bryant/Ronald Acuna/Vladimir Guerrero Jr. treatment.

Prediction: Carlson debuts Monday, April 20 at home against the Reds.

Nick Madrigal, 2B, White Sox

I called Luis Robert getting a long-term deal to eliminate any potential of service-time games about a week before it happened and I still think I will go 2-for-2 on that prediction.

At worst, Leury Garcia will begin the year as the second baseman and Madrigal will replace him in mid-to-late April. I don't think the White Sox will make the playoffs this year, but they are clearly doing everything in their power to make a run at it.

Prediction: Madrigal signs a long-term extension this month and breaks camp as the Opening Day second baseman.

Jo Adell, OF, Angels

It's possible that Adell will appear ready for the big leagues at the end of spring training, but far from a certainty. He struggled in 27 games at Triple-A (67 wRC+, 32.6 K%) and was just OK in the Arizona Fall League (.796 OPS, 29:11 K:BB in 24 games). However, sometimes special talents put it all together in a hurry (like Fernando Tatis last year), so we shouldn't rule anything out. Unlike in the case of Carlson and Madrigal, what Adell does when he is sent to Triple-A will determine when he is up. I'm guessing he will do fairly well in a return to Triple-A but will go through some growing pains in the big leagues.

Prediction: Adell debuts Monday, May 11 at home against the Nationals.

Spencer Howard, RHP, Phillies

The reason I like Howard the most for 2020 among the high-end pitching prospects who have yet to make their big-league debuts is because he not only has frontline upside, but his team desperately needs him. He may not break camp in the rotation, but he will most certainly be in the rotation as soon as the Phillies think he is ready.

Prediction: Howard debuts Sunday, April 19 at home against the Marlins.

MacKenzie Gore, LHP, Padres

The Padres could very easily decide that it makes more sense for Gore to be in the majors that at Triple-A in a season where they need everything to break their way to get one of the wild card spots. I think Zach Davies can be a very serviceable back-end starter if they keep him and Austin Hedges together (he needs a good pitch framer), but perhaps they will be willing to transition him to a swing man/long reliever role very early on. Perhaps just as likely, Garrett Richards could get hurt very early on. I admittedly don't really have a good feel for this one.

Prediction: Gore debuts Monday, May 11 at home against the White Sox.

Forrest Whitley, RHP, Astros

Whitley is a different type of pitcher than Gore — he's bigger with longer limbs and even more electric stuff — so the Astros will want everything to check out at Triple-A over a multi-start stretch before they consider bringing him to the big leagues. With a pitcher as talented as Whitley, that could mean April, but it could also mean June or July.

Prediction: Whitley debuts Thursday, May 28 at home against the Athletics.

Nate Pearson, RHP, Blue Jays

It's silly to play service-time games with pitching prospects. Most fail to live up to expectations. In many cases, they miss a chunk of the early part of their career due to injuries, and some are not the same after those injuries hit. Pearson is Exhibit A. Sure, the Jays could gain an extra year of control by keeping him at Triple-A until mid-April, but with great velocity comes great risk, and I can't help but think the UCL in his throwing elbow is a ticking time bomb. The Jays have nonetheless proven they really care about manipulating service time, so I'm not holding my breath. 

Prediction: Pearson debuts Monday, May 4 at home against the Orioles.

Jarred Kelenic, OF, Mariners

The Mariners are clearly fast-tracking their top prospects and Kelenic will be the first jewel of the farm system to debut in 2020. They are not going out of their way to make sure Kelenic "masters" each level, so his lack of experience above A-ball is essentially irrelevant in this equation if he is hitting in the minors. If Kyle Lewis AND Jake Fraley are hitting (unlikely), Mallex Smith will just move into a fourth outfielder role. Either way, Kelenic will have an everyday spot whenever the Mariners pull the trigger, and he could hit somewhere in the top four of the lineup for the final few months. This will be a 50-70% FAAB situation in NFBC leagues where he went undrafted.

Prediction: Kelenic debuts Tuesday, May 12 at home against the Athletics.

Super Two Status

Usually a player must have accrued at least three years of MLB service time before being arbitration eligible, but those awarded Super Two status are the exception. If a player has fewer than three years of service time, but more than two AND they rank within the top 22 percent of all two-year players in terms of service time, then that player will become arbitration eligible. Super Two players get four years of salary arbitration instead of the typical three, and for a really good player, this can end up costing the team more than $10 million.

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Last year's cutoff for Super Two status was abnormally low at two years, 115 days of MLB service time (written as 2.115) — the lowest threshold of the past decade. Attempting to manipulate the promotion of a top prospect because of Super Two fears is a very inexact science. Here are the last five Super Two cutoffs:

2019: 2.115

2018: 2.134

2017: 2.123

2016: 2.131

2015: 2.130

A general rule of thumb is that if a team calls up a prospect prior to June 1, that player will have a good chance of being awarded Super Two status in a few years.

Considering there is no exact date involved, and it is dependent on what is happening with other players, it is impossible to pinpoint a player's call-up date based on Super Two ramifications. That said, here are some of the top players who could be strategically called up in June or July as their teams look to avoid giving them that extra year of arbitration.

Alex Kirilloff, 1B/OF, Twins

With Kirilloff, things line up pretty nicely for the Twins, as he could probably use a couple months to put the finishing touches on his minor-league development, which would allow the Twins to call him up in June and likely avoid paying him for four arbitration years. He is not a lock to get the call in June or even in the first half if there isn't somewhere for him to play every day, but if a spot opens up at first base or in the outfield, he is the top internal option to take that spot.

Alec Bohm, 3B/1B, Phillies

Like Kirilloff, Bohm could use some time at Triple-A, but unlike Kirilloff, I don't see him as a potential difference maker in mixed leagues. Bohm did most of his damage last season in hitter-friendly environments, and while he could develop into a top-15 fantasy third baseman/first baseman, I think his upside is C.J. Cron-level production on a per-PA basis in 2020. His defense at third base is bad enough that the Phillies wouldn't gain anything by rushing him if his bat isn't 100 percent ready.

Joey Bart, C, Giants

The Giants don't have any reason to rush Bart, but he will be ready sometime this summer, and it could align nicely with a date that ensures they only have to pay him three times in arbitration. The playing time situation should be pretty straightforward, as the Giants have purposely not brought on a real second catcher who could potentially complicate matters when Bart is ready. Catching prospects, even the best ones, often struggle initially against big-league pitching and Bart's home park won't do him any favors.

Ke'Bryan Hayes, 3B, Pirates

Hayes could get the call in late April or May if he is raking at Triple-A, but if he is just holding his own, I think the Pirates will wait until June. Colin Moran is bad enough that they probably won't wait past June even if Hayes isn't banging the door down. I like Hayes a lot as a long-term prospect, but I think it could be a year or two before he is actually someone we're excited to deploy in mixed leagues.

Julio Rodriguez, OF, Mariners

Rodriguez goes into his age-19 season with a chance to force his way to the big leagues. Every assignment the Mariners gave him in 2019 was just slightly more aggressive than what most organizations would have done, and he has yet to go through any lengthy struggles. There won't be any restrictions with how fast he moves through the upper levels of the minors.

Wander Franco, 2B/SS, Rays

Franco is kind of in the same boat as Rodriguez. If he performs like I and many others expect him to at Double-A and Triple-A, the Rays won't keep him trapped in the minors for three months in a season when they are trying to win a World Series. There could be complications regarding who he replaces, as they don't project to have any mediocre players in their everyday lineup. However, he, like many of their other players, can play all over the diamond, so it should work itself out.