AL FAAB Factor: Early May Update

Normally on Sundays, I'd be writing and posting the AL FAAB article, highlighting and analyzing players who are worth picking up (or occasionally, trying to talk you out of throwing too much of your budget at a player likely to draw high bids). However, with the MLB season held in suspended animation like a bug in amber, there are no FAAB or waiver periods to worry about. At least I hope not – there's probably a couple of leagues out there that drafted early and might be plowing ahead anyway, but spending any portion of your budget right now would just be silly, when things as fundamental as the number of games that will be played and the size of big-league rosters are still up in the air.

That doesn't mean, however, that there aren't players and roster situations worth discussing in the meantime. Each week until the season is finally ready to begin, we'll take a look at players gaining or losing value, to prepare you for that eventual first FAAB period.

Starting Pitcher

Gio Gonzalez, White Sox: The veteran southpaw had a bit of a delayed start to spring training due to shoulder soreness, but he's apparently 100 percent now. Gonzalez was signed this offseason to provide the White Sox with some reliable depth at the back of the rotation while the team waited for guys like Carlos Rodon and Michael Kopech to get healthy. Obviously, those plans could now be moot if both younger pitchers are recovered in time for whenever Opening Day will be, but I still like Gonzalez to see regular action this season. He might be a WHIP risk, but he's one of those guys who simply gives you some stability in a rotation spot, and that could be important on a team with a young staff that thinks it could be in playoff contention this year. Gonzalez's days of posting a FIP in the 3.00 range are probably in the past, and he doesn't offer big-time strikeout upside, but he can still be useful in rounding out a fantasy rotation.

Jordan Montgomery, Yankees: The 27-year-old left-hander did nothing but earn plaudits this spring with a 16:1 K:BB in 11 innings, and those rave reviews have continued during the current hiatus. Despite his lack of work the last couple years – Montgomery threw only 35 total innings in 2018 and 2019 due to Tommy John surgery – he's apparently refined his mechanics to put less stress on his arm while getting better extension on his pitches, which has made his changeup even more dangerous. The Yankees seem confident he can hold down a regular rotation spot, and while the organization has plenty of depth to cover for him, Montgomery is a prime candidate for a breakout if he does manage to stay on the mound. 

Relief Pitcher

Ryan Borucki, Blue Jays: Add another name to the 'potential depth starter as part of an expanded roster' pile. Borucki missed his chance to win a rotation spot with the Jays due to elbow soreness, but he's on track to be healthy again when the season begins. A prototypical crafty lefty, the 26-year-old models his pitching style after former Toronto hurler Mark Buehrle, and he uses his changeup to keep hitters off balance and generate weak contact. That approach yielded solid results in 2018, and if he's healthy there's little reason to think he can't do it again if he gets a chance.

Zack Britton, Yankees: It wasn't that long ago Britton was viewed as one of the game's top closers, but now he's just another expensive, name-brand arm lost in the shuffle of the Yankees' bullpen. His ratios returned to an elite level in the second half last year, though, as he used his slider a little more often to contrast with his sinker, and it's possible he's got one or two more great seasons left in the tank. Britton probably won't be getting saves regularly again, at least not in the Bronx, but he could still deliver top-shelf set-up value in 2020.

Catcher

Jake Rogers, Tigers: In last week's FAAB Factor I talked about some top prospect arms on rebuilding clubs who need playing time, and who could find themselves in the majors if they don't have a minor-league season to participate in. That principle could also apply to some position players, such as Rogers. While he's not in the same class of prospect as Detroit's elite young arms, the 2016 third-round pick has been viewed as the organization's catcher of the future ever since he was part of the haul from Houston for Justin Verlander. Rogers needs more development time though after struggling at the plate last year in his first action above Double-A, and a big part of the reason why the Tigers signed Austin Romine to a one-year deal was so they wouldn't have to rush Rogers to the majors again. Whoops. Getting the 25-year-old work as a third catcher would still be better than having him spin his wheels in sim games, if it comes to that, but it's still not going to be ideal for his progress either way. The best-case fantasy scenario here for 2020 is probably a low batting average and occasional pop, but Rogers does have a bit of appeal in dynasty formats.

First Base

Chris Davis / Ryan Mountcastle, Orioles: With Trey Mancini now officially ruled out for 2020 as he recovers from colon cancer, the other 1B/DH/corner outfield options for Baltimore look a little more promising. It's hard to buy in on Davis at 34 years old and coming off two dreadful seasons at the plate, (and a fairly mediocre one before that), but he did have an amazing spring that included a 9:3 BB:K in 26 plate appearances. He won't hit 50 homers again, but if he's found a way to make contact a little more consistently, he could surprise with 30. As for Mountcastle, he has little left to prove in the minors offensively, but the organization still isn't quite sure what to do with him defensively. Having him bounce around the bottom of the defensive spectrum in an everyday utility role would be the best option for his fantasy value, but the O's would probably prefer to let him get comfortable at one spot instead and live with his glove's growing pains. If it weren't for the three years and $51 million left on Davis' contract, that spot would probably be first base.

Second Base

Luis Rengifo, Angels: Another player who could work his way back into the roster mix in the majors is Rengifo. He'd already been optioned to Triple-A Salt Lake when spring training was put on pause, as the club decided it would rather have him playing every day in the PCL rather than sitting on the bench behind Andrelton Simmons and Tommy La Stella. La Stella is far from a sure things at the keystone, though. His 2019 campaign was remarkable, but also a total outlier compared to the rest of his career – his personal best in homers for a full season, across all levels, was only six heading into last season, so 16 bombs in 80 games seems very much like a product of the happy fun ball. If the 31-year-old returns to his slap-hitting ways, Rengifo would likely get a chance to replace him, especially if he's already in the bigs as part of expanded rosters. The 23-year-old might not be more than a decent source of batting average himself, but his minor-league numbers at least suggest some steals upside, even if his 5-for-13 success rate between Triple-A and the majors last year was pretty awful. 

Third Base

Rio Ruiz, Orioles: As the dominoes fall around the Baltimore lineup, Ruiz could end up being the one that falls off the table. If Davis keeps his career afloat and Mountcastle hits well enough to stay in the lineup, they'll likely end up as the regular first baseman and DH in some combination. That would bump Renato Nunez and his 31 homers over to third base, and it would leave Ruiz – who's coming off a much less impressive campaign – on the bench. Of course, that's a lot of ifs. Davis could be done, Mountcastle could have rookie struggles, Nunez could regress. In any of those scenarios, Ruiz probably finds himself getting a majority of starts at the hot corner again, whether in a platoon with Nunez or someone else, and while his 2019 numbers were lackluster at best, Ruiz did have a little more success at the plate at Triple-A in the Atlanta system. He could yet prove to be a useful only-league stick.

Outfield

Dwight Smith / DJ Stewart, Orioles: Anthony Santander and Austin Hays seem locked into two starting spots in the Baltimore outfield, but with Mancini out of the picture, Smith and Stewart will battle for the other corner spot unless someone like Yusniel Diaz has a breakout (a possibility I don't think you should overlook). The duo both hit left-handed, so this won't be a straight platoon, but Santander could sit against tough RHP to get both lefties in the lineup. Of the two, I like Stewart a little better and he has had marginally more success at the plate in the high minors, but the resumes of the two are remarkably similar, and they'd seem to offer a standard 'decent BA and power but nothing special' profile. This will likely be a situation where you grab one off the waiver wire when they're hot and have forced their way into the everyday lineup, then cut them loose again when they cool down and start to lose playing time.