This article is part of our MLB Barometer series.
It was not a great April to be a baseball fan. It wasn't a great April to be a human being on planet Earth, frankly. But the turning of the calendar to May, which should have brought with it a handful of exciting prospect callups, the stabilization of early season stats and the panic of fantasy owners struggling to reshape their teams after realizing all their draft picks were wrong, might still be bringing signs of optimism for baseball-starved fans.
With countries around the globe emerging from their respective lockdowns at varying paces, baseball fans will have something to watch while they wait for MLB to return. The CPBL in Taiwan began its season in front of empty stadiums in mid-April. While the quality of play isn't quite what MLB fans are used to (it's considered to be roughly Double-A level), it's gone a long way toward scratching the itch for me, personally. There's nothing quite like crack of the bat, and the offense-friendly CPBL has plenty of those. Best of all, the league has taken advantage of its status as the only active baseball league in the world by streaming games for free on Twitter with English commentary.
Beginning this week, the KBO in South Korea will be opening its season as well. The league offers a higher level of play than is found in the CPBL and is generally considered to be about the Triple-A level. It's the place where the likes of Eric Thames, Merrill Kelly
It was not a great April to be a baseball fan. It wasn't a great April to be a human being on planet Earth, frankly. But the turning of the calendar to May, which should have brought with it a handful of exciting prospect callups, the stabilization of early season stats and the panic of fantasy owners struggling to reshape their teams after realizing all their draft picks were wrong, might still be bringing signs of optimism for baseball-starved fans.
With countries around the globe emerging from their respective lockdowns at varying paces, baseball fans will have something to watch while they wait for MLB to return. The CPBL in Taiwan began its season in front of empty stadiums in mid-April. While the quality of play isn't quite what MLB fans are used to (it's considered to be roughly Double-A level), it's gone a long way toward scratching the itch for me, personally. There's nothing quite like crack of the bat, and the offense-friendly CPBL has plenty of those. Best of all, the league has taken advantage of its status as the only active baseball league in the world by streaming games for free on Twitter with English commentary.
Beginning this week, the KBO in South Korea will be opening its season as well. The league offers a higher level of play than is found in the CPBL and is generally considered to be about the Triple-A level. It's the place where the likes of Eric Thames, Merrill Kelly and Josh Lindblom resurrected their careers before returning stateside. It's also the place where Korean players like Hyun-Jin Ryu launched their careers before crossing the ocean and starring for MLB clubs. There is no doubt that there will be major-league talent on display when the league re-opens Tuesday.
If nothing but major-league ball will satisfy you, there are signs of optimism for you to turn to as well. The eventual date to reopen the season remains unclear, and it's probably not anywhere close, but signs point to league and union leaders being quite confident that the season will indeed eventually take place in some form. Reports from ESPN's Jeff Passan and USA Today's Bob Nightengale reflected that optimism last week.
Per those reports, the specifics of the plan to reopen the season are hard to pin down, as an endless stream of ideas is being considered. The hope, however, is to begin play no later than early July, with a schedule of at least 100 games seemingly possible. Everything from the entire league being held in Arizona to teams playing in their home stadiums, with potentially realigned divisions to reduce travel, appears to be on the table. If the season ends up delayed until late summer or even fall, a plan for a completely scrapped regular season and a giant, 30-team playoff tournament is also being considered.
There's also the question of the minor leagues. It's hard enough to find a way to get all 30 MLB teams playing, let alone hundreds of minor-league teams. The minors also don't come with anywhere near the same financial incentives, which will help drive MLB to finalize a plan to resume play. There have been rumors that all minor-league seasons will be cancelled, though Minor League Baseball released a statement denying that any such decision has been made. Still, the uncertainty surrounding the minors undoubtedly adds risk to all the players who fantasy owners hoped to see debuting this season.
While plenty of uncertainty remains, the optimism that the season will eventually take place in some form pairs quite nicely with the warm weather that's returning across the country. This week's column will look at players whose stocks are affected by the potential changes to the season, as well as a few players whose fortunes have changed due to recent bits of news.
RISERS
Howie Kendrick, 1B/2B, Nationals: Kendrick hit an excellent .344/.395/.572 last season, though the Nationals limited him to just 370 plate appearances, in part due to competition for starts in the infield and in part due to a desire to ease the strain on Kendrick's 36-year-old legs. The potential addition of a universal designated hitter this season, something which might be required if divisions realign, would help solve both of those problems, as it would help clear out the team's infield logjam and give Kendrick the chance to play without taking the field. You might be tempted to write off Kendrick's numbers last season as primarily a small-sample fluke, but Statcast would disagree strongly on that point. His .622 expected slugging percentage suggests the luck actually went in the other direction. The veteran had carved out a long career as a contact hitter but had never shown much power. He's embraced the flyball revolution, however, increasing his launch angle from 0.8 degrees in 2017 to 11.0 degrees last season. If a universal designated hitter keeps him healthy and keeps him in the lineup on a regular basis, he could become a huge bargain.
Yasiel Puig, OF, Free Agent: Prior to the shutdown, Puig looked like he might be stuck in the same position Dallas Keuchel and Craig Kimbrel were in last season, potentially being forced to wait until midseason to reach a deal with a team. While the outfielder still doesn't have a contract, reports this week have suggested he's nearing a deal with the Giants, though an agreement isn't expected to be finalized until the plan to resume play becomes clear. Even if the Giants rumors are inaccurate, the delayed season has bought Puig extra time to find a deal with a club. He still probably shouldn't be drafted as high as he was early in the offseason, as the uncertainty is still there and the Giants' tough home park wouldn't make for the ideal destination, but his stock should certainly be rising as it's now far less likely that he misses a substantial portion of the upcoming season.
Michael Conforto, OF, Mets: Conforto strained his right oblique in mid-March, an injury which likely would have sent him to the injured list to open the year had the season started on time. The delayed season has bought him time to get healthy, however, and he's now taking regular batting practice. He's expected to be fully ready to go once the Mets are allowed to resume workouts. Conforto does have something of an injury history, as a shoulder injury limited him to 109 games in 2017 and seemingly affected his performance early in the 2018 campaign, so the fact that he's already been injured once this season is at least cause for caution. Still, his price should rise to close to where it was pre-injury, as he's seemingly no longer at risk of missing time at the start of the campaign.
Dominic Smith, 1B/OF, Mets: The potential for a universal designated hitter seems tailor-made for a player like Smith. After some early career struggles, Smith enjoyed a miniature breakout in 2019, hitting .282/.355/.525 in 197 plate appearances. He's probably good enough to be at least a low-end starter at first base at the big-league level, but he's never going to fill that role on a team that includes Pete Alonso. The Mets tried him in left field last season in an attempt to get his bat in the lineup, but he earned quite poor marks at the position according to both DRS and UZR. If the Mets do get to use a designated hitter every day, there's no guarantee Smith is the one to get the nod, as Matt Adams and potentially Yoenis Cespedes (depending on how the team's outfield situation shakes out) could be part of the picture, but it would at least give Smith a far easier path to playing time and make him far more worthy of a late-round pick.
Alec Bohm, 3B, Phillies: Bohm is the third baseman of the future in Philadelphia, but some of the potential changes to the 2020 season could result in that future coming sooner than anticipated. The 2018 third-overall pick recorded a strong .305/.378/.518 slash line across three levels last season, finishing the year with 63 games at Double-A Reading. His plate discipline was particularly impressive for a slugger, as he paired a 10.6 percent walk rate with a 13.5 percent strikeout rate. The Phillies likely would prefer that he spend some more time in the upper minors before calling him up, but if the minor-league season does end up getting cancelled, it wouldn't make much sense for the team to delay his debut by a full year. Additionally, the universal designated hitter rule could be a boon to Bohm's chances of carving out a significant role, as it would remove his biggest weakness (his defense at third base) from the equation.
Jimmy Nelson, SP, Dodgers: This one is for very deep leagues only, and it might be advisable to stay away even there. With that disclaimer out of the way, Nelson is a riser in that he's jumped from completely off the board back into fringe consideration, as the back and groin ailments that prevented him from making a case for a roster spot prior to play being suspended are apparently no longer an issue. Additionally, a hypothetically expanded roster would potentially clear a path for Nelson to break camp with the team. He would likely do so as a reliever, and expectations should be low for him even then. The 30-year-old has only had one season of success, but it was quite a good one, as he struck out 27.3 percent of batters en route to a 3.49 ERA back in 2017. He missed all 2018 with a shoulder injury and struggled greatly in his attempt to return last season, posting a 6.95 ERA in 22 big-league innings. The Dodgers have a reputation as a smart organization, however, so it's possible they'll help him turn things around, and the delayed season and expanded rosters should at least give him the chance to do so.
FALLERS
Trey Mancini, OF, Orioles: Mancini revealed in a piece for The Players' Tribune last week that he expects to miss the entire season while undergoing treatment for colon cancer. Doctors caught the issue in early March, and Mancini underwent surgery shortly thereafter. Even with a significantly delayed schedule, the 28-year-old doesn't expect to play, as he'll be undergoing chemotherapy for a full six months. In his absence, Chris Davis should see more playing time at first base, while Anthony Santander, Dwight Smith and DJ Stewart should see less competition for playing time in the outfield corners.
Emmanuel Clase, RP, Indians: Getting busted for PEDs is a surefire way to tank your fantasy stock. Receiving an 80-game suspension in a season that might not last a whole lot longer than 80 games certainly isn't ideal, and that's exactly what happened to Clase last week when he tested positive for Boldenone. After coming over in the Corey Kluber trade, Clase made for an interesting saves speculation option behind Brad Hand thanks to his 2.31 ERA in 23.1 innings as a rookie. A February lat strain took him out of that conversation temporarily, but the delayed season appeared to move him back in the picture. Now that he's no longer going to be a factor until late in the season, James Karinchak may be the setup man to target in Cleveland.
