Mound Musings: The Sixth Man

One of the most intriguing questions fantasy owners will need to contend with when the season begins will be the impact of a compressed schedule on starting assignments and bullpen usage. Discussions suggest teams might play more than the usual days in a row with scheduled doubleheaders sprinkled (perhaps fairly liberally) into the mix. When and how the schedule will take shape is still being bantered about. The last plan standing will make all the difference, but we'll keep trying, and we'll continue to do all we can to help with the many twists and turns. There are so many things to look at, so let's go.

The sixth man could almost be a baseball necessity: In basketball, the sixth man is the first person off the bench, charged with providing a burst of energy to teammates perhaps beginning to suffer some level of fatigue. In the 2020 version of MLB, the sixth man pitcher(s) could take one or more forms ranging from a sixth starting pitcher to a start by committee bullpen with openers and a greater number of relievers trying to shoulder the heavier workload of the anticipated compressed season.

This week, we'll focus on potential six-man rotations. But, before we rush to add these sixth starters to our draft lists, maybe we should start with a little history. Fifty years ago approximately 20 teams had four-man rotations (roughly 80 primary starters) who pitched a lot of innings. For example, did you know that over his amazing 27-win season in 1972, Steve Carlton made 41 starts, tossing complete games in 30 of those, as he amassed a jaw-dropping 346 innings? Can you imagine a pitcher handling that workload today? Nope, certainly not. In a normal season these days, 30 teams employ five-man rotations (roughly 150 primary starters, rarely starting more often than every five days) with only a handful surpassing 200 innings. It shouldn't be too surprising that the bottom tiers of starters in today's game aren't terribly reliable.

So now we jump forward to 2020, and the very real possibility that teams could play more than five games over the span of five days. Therefore we are looking at possible six-man rotations for the 30 teams (potentially about 180 primary starters), and I'm about to list a handful who might – repeat after me, might – be potentially useful in deeper leagues. In truth, genuine sixth starters won't help. If a sixth starter were capable of helping a fantasy team, he would be higher on the MLB team's food chain.

That completes the background. Here are a few pitchers likely to begin the season as a "sixth" starter. None of these guys are likely to be top-of-the-rotation arms, but some could perform at a level more representative of a mid- to back-of-the-rotation fantasy starter in leagues with deep rosters. Don't get carried away on draft day, but remember some teams have deep enough systems to field six viable starters.

• Ryan Borucki (Blue Jays) – Toronto has a revamped rotation, and while Borucki is not even assured a sixth spot, his health is more of a concern than his abilities. He caught my eye a couple years ago, but elbow problems washed out his 2019 campaign, and more elbow tenderness popped up this spring. If he's healthy, I like him, and reports have been positive during the delay.
• Kwang-Hyun Kim (Cardinals) – Kim comes over from South Korea following 12 fairly successful seasons (he's 31 years old, so a seasoned veteran). He doesn't have dominating stuff, but his pitch mix and command should be sufficient to keep him in games. The southpaw is potentially fantasy-relevant.
• Austin Voth (Nationals) – He's now listed as the sixth starter on the Nats' depth chart, but I like him better than their five, Joe Ross. He is not dominating either, but he can throw four pitches for strikes including a pretty nice curveball. As with those listed above, he may be somewhat mislabeled as a sixth starter.
• Merrill Kelly (Diamondbacks) – I whiffed on Kelly last year. I expected him to be a solid starter, but inconsistency and homers were a problem most of the season. Inconsistency like allowing 23 runs over five starts, then just six in his next five. I'm going to give him a mulligan, and look for him to smooth things out in 2020.
• Chris Bassitt (A's) – I might put a bit of a gap here. Bassitt is an adequate swingman who might be overexposed if thrust into a regular turn in the rotation. The A's have some excellent depth, but their starters, on the whole, are young, and it would be understandable if the A's carefully monitor workloads this season.
• Cal Quantrill (Padres) – Also perhaps better suited as a swingman, Quantrill was expected to open the season in the Padres' bullpen. He still might if the team opts to go with occasional bullpen games. That would probably help him, and he's still young and still may have some modest upside. Tread cautiously.
• Tyler Mahle (Reds) – I watched Mahle a few times last year and thought his stuff was a bit better than the peripherals would indicate. He showed a decent fastball and splitter, but his breaking pitches were very inconsistent. He threw strikes, but not always where he wanted them. That's the description of a pitcher who needs to take it up a notch to become a viable member of a rotation.
• Elieser Hernandez (Marlins) – He's a fringy starter on a weak team, but he's likely to see some innings. His core pitches aren't bad, but I'm not sure he has the off-speed stuff to keep opposing hand hitters honest. Right now he might be better suited to a bullpen role to limit is exposure.

You might notice none of the highest profile kids were included in the sixth starter list. Guys like MacKenzie Gore in San Diego, Matt Manning and Casey Mize in Detroit, Nate Pearson with Toronto, Dustin May with the Dodgers, Michael Kopech with the White Sox, Forrest Whitley in Houston, and even someone like Brady Singer in Kansas City, to name a few, could certainly have an impact if all the pieces fall into place, if the final schedule resumption timing is favorable, if their team is in contention later in the season, and if a playoff possibility seriously outweighs long term financial considerations. The problem is, that is a lot of "ifs," and that makes them hard to rely on for this rather unusual year.

If a sixth starter is not a viable option: For the past several seasons, some teams have tinkered with "bullpen" games, deploying an opener followed by a succession of relievers. The reason is simply a lack of quality starting pitching. These teams generally feel a fifth starter would be less likely to provide them a chance to win. The downside would be taxing the bullpen. With the concerns related to finding a fifth starter, the problems associated with finding a sixth starter are pretty obvious, I think we'll see more bullpen games than we have in the past, compounding problems in the fantasy arena.

Expanded rosters will certainly help the respective MLB teams. In fact, with additional bullpen games, a deeper bullpen will be a necessity. The fantasy challenge comes about with the inability to always (or almost always) use relievers in specific roles, making wins more difficult to predict while likely diluting holds and possibly even saves. Relievers rarely will pitch twice on the same day (doubleheaders), and all but the most rubber-armed won't be able to appear more than three days in a row. The most valuable relievers will probably be those who contribute strikeouts while helping with WHIP and ERA.

The one thing we know for certain is that unprecedented events will give us a season with no template to follow – assuming the season happens. I think it will, in some yet to be fully determined format. Baseball is our national game. Rotations and bullpens could be in a state of flux all year. We'll just need to be ready to adjust, so go ahead and ask those questions. We'll do our best to provide news, thoughts and insight.

Some Notable Rotation Ramblings:

• The Dodgers are one of those rare teams that can actually fill a six-man rotation with reasonably viable starters. I didn't include Ross Stripling on the above list because it looks like he will work out of the pen. However, should injuries arise (they always do), he could get the nod to take over a regular rotation spot.
• Similarly, the Yankees, when healthy and active, have more than their share of starting depth. James Paxton should be ready to go, and I anticipate a breakout season from Jordan Montgomery meaning they need to find room for Domingo German when he returns from suspension about 60 games into the season.
• Felix Hernandez likely will open the year as Atlanta's fifth starter, but there will also be room for at least one of their top pitching prospects. While I'd love to see Ian Anderson, I think his day is still in the future. Despite a rough year in 2019, I think the lion's share of the innings will go to an improving Kyle Wright.
• One more fifth/sixth starter candidate. Houston's Josh James has second starter stuff while often displaying middle reliever command. That translates into huge upside if he can ever consistently throw strikes. I saw some positive signs at times last year so maybe he is on the brink of taking that next big step.

Endgame Odyssey:

This unprecedented preseason continues to complicate role assignments for pitchers coming back from extended injuries. For example, in Milwaukee, Corey Knebel is rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. It has gone fairly well as he has progressed to throwing side sessions, but things have stalled since he hasn't had an opportunity to face live hitters. I still believe he can get into the saves mix, but the question is when. I remain leery of Hector Neris being able to maintain firm grip on the closer's gig in Philadelphia. David Robertson (only a so-so option) is questionable to return this year, so who is next in line? Here's a thought. He's definitely not next up today, but I was very bullish on Drew Storen once upon a time. Perhaps he could put it all together again. While bullpens will probably be a scramble in many cities, and there are a few options to consider, scanning the depth chart, I still feel relatively confident Nick Anderson will end up being the primary closer in Tampa Bay.