This article is part of our Mound Musings series.
Last week we explored reasons to believe some pitchers who experienced disappointing seasons in 2019 might be candidates to bounce back in 2020 – of course assuming there is a 2020. The guys who do turn things around in a positive way are very likely to offer value on draft day because most recent numbers are frequently over-emphasized when fantasy owners do their player analysis. This week we'll look at the flip side of that coin. Some pitchers enjoyed very strong, even surprisingly strong, seasons last year. Can we expect the same (or in some cases even better) this season? If the draft day bidding reflects last year's numbers, and this year's results don't match up, the result is negative value. Obviously, that is something we all want to avoid. Let's take a look at that coin and see if there are some pitchers we might want to avoid.
The Best Play Might be to Stay Away: I'm always on the lookout for pitchers who could provide positive value. Find enough of them, and it's likely you will compete for a championship in your league. Conversely, there will be players who had very impressive seasons last year, leading to frequently inflated prices on draft day even though a repeat of 2019 seems unlikely. Pretty simple really, it amounts to Value 101, and that's the way to win fantasy leagues.
Our primary premise is, fantasy owners often weight their draft/auction values on what the player did the previous season. Obviously that