This article is part of our MLB Barometer series.
Plans to reopen the baseball season continue to percolate, though this past week was somewhat light on specific developments. The league and the players' union have initiated a conversation on the various safety measures that will be necessary if baseball is to come back during the middle of a pandemic, though the details have yet to be finalized.
Meanwhile, discussion on the more thorny economic issues appears set to take place this week, with owners continuing their attempts to renege on an agreement made with the players in March regarding their prorated salaries. Reporters generally seem optimistic that a deal will eventually be reached and that baseball will eventually be played, but it may not be until next week that we can properly analyze all of the specific oddities which will define the upcoming season.
In the meantime, the KBO in South Korea and the CPBL in Taiwan continue to play. Those leagues, especially the KBO, as it's being shown six days a week on ESPN, are doing their part to scratch the itch for baseball-starved fans in America, at least those who are willing to deal with time-zone differences or re-broadcasted games. (Here's a shameless plug for our KBO content for those who are still holding out on the best baseball being played in the world right now. The games are worth watching, and the wide-open fantasy landscape rewards players who bother to do their research, like, say, people who are still reading fantasy baseball articles 10 weeks after
Plans to reopen the baseball season continue to percolate, though this past week was somewhat light on specific developments. The league and the players' union have initiated a conversation on the various safety measures that will be necessary if baseball is to come back during the middle of a pandemic, though the details have yet to be finalized.
Meanwhile, discussion on the more thorny economic issues appears set to take place this week, with owners continuing their attempts to renege on an agreement made with the players in March regarding their prorated salaries. Reporters generally seem optimistic that a deal will eventually be reached and that baseball will eventually be played, but it may not be until next week that we can properly analyze all of the specific oddities which will define the upcoming season.
In the meantime, the KBO in South Korea and the CPBL in Taiwan continue to play. Those leagues, especially the KBO, as it's being shown six days a week on ESPN, are doing their part to scratch the itch for baseball-starved fans in America, at least those who are willing to deal with time-zone differences or re-broadcasted games. (Here's a shameless plug for our KBO content for those who are still holding out on the best baseball being played in the world right now. The games are worth watching, and the wide-open fantasy landscape rewards players who bother to do their research, like, say, people who are still reading fantasy baseball articles 10 weeks after play was shut down.) They're also providing a window into what will hopefully be our future on this side of the Pacific.
Two weeks ago, I used this space to check on the early returns from the CPBL and KBO, in a search for insight into how the MLB landscape might look as players return from a disrupted offseason. With more data coming in after two more weeks of games, it's worth another look:
| 2019 KBO | 2020 KBO | 2019 CPBL | 2020 CPBL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Runs per game | 4.55 | 5.30 | 5.47 | 6.98 |
| HR/9 | 0.71 | 0.96 | 1.10 | 1.35 |
| Strikeout rate | 17.2% | 17.9% | 17.9% | 18.5% |
| Walk rate | 8.5% | 8.7% | 7.1% | 7.6% |
Unfortunately, data from the CPBL may be largely worthless if we're looking for insight into the 2020 MLB season. The league released the results of its tests on its 2020 baseballs, and the balls' coefficient of restitution (which determines a ball's bounciness and therefore how far it flies off the bat) was found to be considerably higher than it was in the previous three seasons. Offense has skyrocketed in that league to the point where the league is discussing plans to de-juice the ball midseason.
Meanwhile, the KBO insists its ball is the same as it was last year, when the league deliberately changed the ball to rein in run-scoring, or is at least within the range of specifications set out in the rules. American baseball fans are used to that song-and-dance, with the MLB long denying that its ball had changed despite independent research indicating otherwise. Still, it's certainly possible that the KBO is more honest, especially given that the league was very open about its decision to de-juice the ball in the first place.
If we're to take the KBO at its word, that means it's providing evidence that we should expect an increased run environment at least early in the season once MLB returns. It does make some sense that offense would be up in a season where pitchers' preparations were significantly disrupted.
On a related note, KBO analyst Daniel Kim mentioned during an in-game interview on ESPN that he'd heard from players who said that the lack of fans in the stands was leading to a lack of adrenaline for pitchers, and therefore worse performances. It's not entirely clear to me why that wouldn't be canceled out by a similar lack of adrenaline for hitters, but hitting and pitching are different skills which presumably require different mental states, so it's not out of the question that the idea has some merit.
It's also possible that a year in which basically everyone is slightly "off" benefits the hitters overall. If a hitter is off for one pitch, the worst that can happen is he swings and misses. If a pitcher is off for one pitch, that could mean a meatball down the middle of the plate that gets crushed for a homer. Pitchers simply have more to lose on any given pitch.
Fantasy-relevant news remains little more than a trickle, but this week's barometer will take a look at a handful of players who are rising and falling based on recent reports, as well as a few who could benefit if Kim's hypothesis is correct.
RISERS
Anthony Rendon, 3B, Angels: If Kim's idea that pitchers are affected by a lack of adrenaline due to a lack of fans in the stands is accurate, we should see an increase in mistake pitches. Without an ability to read pitchers' minds, we can't really get data on which pitches are indeed mistakes. What we do have, however, is this Statcast leaderboard, which shows which hitters did the most damage against pitches over the heart of the plate. Rendon leads that leaderboard, indicating that he was the best in the league at crushing easy pitches last season. In a world that could potentially have more crushable pitches than ever, Rendon could potentially see a small bump.
Bryce Harper, OF, Phillies: Harper comes in third on the above list of presumed mistake-pitch crushers. Unlike Rendon, who seems to be something of a one-year wonder when it comes to getting so much out of pitches over the heart of the plate, Harper finished in the top 20 in each of the three seasons for which this data is available. The outfielder does seem like the kind of player who feeds off the energy of the fans (not that that's in any way measurable), so it's possible he's hurt by empty stadiums, but if that's not the case, he looks set to benefit more than anyone if the reduced adrenaline leads to a higher percentage of grooved pitches.
Eugenio Suarez, 3B, Reds: Suarez's recovery timeline from January shoulder surgery, a procedure made necessary after the third baseman injured himself in a swimming pool, wasn't entirely clear before play was shut down, though he was thought to be in contention for the Opening Day roster. The delayed season has bought him the time to recover without a rush to get back on the field. Reds president of baseball operations Dick Williams said last week that Suarez will be "full go" when play eventually resumes. Suarez's stock had understandably fallen in pre-shutdown drafts, but it should be more or less all the way back up now that he's healthy.
Nick Senzel, OF, Reds: Senzel underwent shoulder surgery back in September and was under some limitations during spring training. He'd been able to play as a designated hitter in a handful of Cactus League games but had yet to play the field when play was shut down. Like his teammate Suarez, however, Senzel also got the "full go" from Dick Williams, so it seems as though there's little reason to worry about his shoulder heading into this season. Of course, that doesn't mean that Senzel is without risk. He's battled his fair share of injuries over the past two years and didn't set the world on fire in games as a rookie, hitting .256/.315/.427, though his 12 homers and 14 steals hinted at his potential.
Victor Caratini, C, Cubs: Caratini is almost certainly one of the best 30 catchers in baseball and could potentially be in the top 20, as he hit a solid .266/.348/.447 with 11 homers in 279 plate appearances last year. As long as he's stuck on the same team as Willson Contreras, though, he won't get the chance for the playing time behind the plate that he probably deserves. Reports this week indicated that Caratini could benefit significantly from the presumed introduction of the universal designated hitter this season, however. Kyle Schwarber may be the name fans first think of when they think about a Cubs' DH, but he's become a passable outfielder, at least according to UZR. (DRS and Statcast's Outs Above Average are less convinced.) If Caratini gets the opportunity to start multiple times per week, which could be made easier if expanded rosters allow the Cubs to carry a third catcher, he suddenly becomes a considerably more interesting option at a very shallow position.
FALLERS
Aaron Judge, OF, Yankees: While there's been positive news about many players recovering from injuries, the tone seems more muted surrounding Judge. Tests revealed a stress fracture in the outfielder's first right rib in early March, an injury he first suffered when making a diving catch late last season. He avoided surgery, and the delayed season has given him time to rest and heal, but it's evidently quite a slow process. He's still yet to resume swinging, with general manager Brian Cashman indicating he won't be ready to play until "summertime," which isn't particularly precise. It's hard to pin down an exact timeline for the slugger's return, but it seems fairly likely that he'll still wind up missing time unless Opening Day gets pushed back into the fall, which doesn't currently seem to be the plan.
Brent Honeywell, SP, Rays: Things just keep getting worse for Honeywell, who last pitched in a game back in September of 2017. Since then, he's undergone both Tommy John surgery and surgery to repair a fractured elbow. We can now add a third elbow surgery to that list, as Honeywell underwent a decompression procedure on his right ulnar nerve last week. He was already unlikely to make his MLB debut this season, as he needed to prove his health and may not have gotten the chance to do so if the minor-league season wound up getting scrapped. He did the opposite of proving his health, unfortunately, and he's now unlikely to throw off a mound at all until the fall. Honeywell was formerly a rather interesting prospect, thanks in part to his unusual screwball, but it's quite hard to have much faith in him at this point in dynasty leagues.
