NFBC: Beat James Anderson Recap

Last night was the NFBC Beat James Anderson RotoWire Online Championship. It's a $250 buy-in with a $25K grand prize for the overall winner and $1K to the winner of each league. 

I was picking eighth out of 12 — ideally I would be picking as close to first as possible, but you can put together a great roster from any draft spot if you're prepared.

My plan, which I shared on Wednesday's Prospect Podcast roughly five hours before the draft started, was as follows (bold are the actual picks):

1.8 Trea Turner/Jose Ramirez

2.17 Mike Clevinger/Clayton Kershaw

3.32 Ozzie Albies/Javier Baez/Adalberto Mondesi

4.41 Yu Darvish/Charlie Morton

I did not get my first choice at those draft spots until the fourth round, when I got Darvish, but that's fine. The key was to walk away with two power/speed hitters and two aces so that I could be very flexible for the rest of the draft. That plan worked, and I'm ecstatic about my team — as any prepared manager should be after a 12-team draft.

Here is the full draft board:

As has been the case ever since NFBC drafts started back up, closers got pushed up the draft relative to where they were going in March. I would have taken Roberto Osuna if he'd made it to me in the sixth round, and I may have taken Kenley Jansen if he made it to me in the eighth round, but I knew going in that I wasn't going to "reach" for a closer in the first 10 rounds. 

Even in a 12-team league, you're not going to get studs for every category and every position. In this draft, my sacrifices were that I only ended up with one top-18 closer (Archie Bradley) and I waited until the 23rd round to take my first catcher (Jason Castro). I think I'm pretty loaded everywhere else, and I think I did an adequate job of getting enough saves onto my roster to compete for the overall prize.

Here is the offense I will deploy for the first lineup period (7/23-7/26):

If you've listened to me on podcasts or radio this year, you'll probably know that I love Matt Olson, Tim Anderson, Matt Chapman, Tommy Edman, and Lorenzo Cain this season. I don't go into drafts "targeting" those players, but I end up with them on almost every team because I value them so much more than the market does. I probably won't be getting a .300 batting average from my top two hitters, Jose Ramirez and Javier Baez, but I think I could get a .300+ average from Anderson, Edman and Cain, in addition to 6-10 steals apiece. Olson and Chapman won't hit near .300, but I think they can each hit around .265, and in a 60-game season they could do better (or worse) than that. The reason I love them this year is that I think they each have a chance to finish top-10 in home runs and R+RBI. They are high-end category anchors and Olson freed me up to not worry about reaching for a first baseman later. With regards to the rest of my offensive starters, I was prioritizing batting average in the middle rounds and players on good offenses who could be big counting stat contributors. I also prioritized filling my infield spots early because outfield is ridiculously deep in a 12-teamer — I ended up with eight outfielders I'd happily start and I only took one (Ramon Laureano) in the first 12 rounds.

Here is the pitching staff I will deploy in the first lineup period (7/23-7/26):

You will also know I love Sandy Alcantara this season if you've been listening to me on podcasts or radio. I have 100% exposure to Alcantara in my five NFBC leagues to date. This FanGraphs article explains why you shouldn't just look at his statistics on the whole from 2019. He closed the season pitching like an SP2 or SP3, and you can draft him as your SP7 or SP8 (in 12 teamers). I am targeting pitchers on good teams because that's where the wins should be, so Dodgers and Twins pitchers, specifically, are top targets for me. I don't think Wade Davis is particularly good anymore, but he could also finish top-10 in saves this year. Yes, Davis has to deal with Coors Field, but there shouldn't be a 10-round gap between him and Craig Kimbrel, who is also washed up and valuable only because he has the closer's job. I will be going week to week with my non-Bradley relievers. I may opt to bench Davis when the Rockies have a week's worth of home games, and who knows how long Zack Britton will be startable in a 12-team league. Since I didn't invest top resources in saves, I will be scrambling there all season, but I think it's doable. 

Here is my seven man bench to open the year:

I typically want to have more pitchers than hitters on my bench so that I can avoid bad matchups with my lesser pitchers when possible. I plan to be swapping Daniel Hudson in whenever Davis is spending the week in Coors or whenever Aroldis Chapman takes the job back from Britton (could be Opening Day for all we know). I'm expecting Hudson and Sean Doolittle to have a 60/40 saves split in Doolittle's favor, but Doolittle hasn't been particularly durable and hasn't even fully committed to playing this season. Jordan Montgomery, Anibal Sanchez and Mike Fiers are solid pitchers on really good teams who should be streamable, and they won't be painful cuts if I see someone I want to add on waivers. Trent Grisham, Miguel Andujar and Yoshi Tsutsugo are high upside hitters who could warrant a spot in my lineup, but I can afford to wait and see how they perform and how much they play early on.