The Z Files: New Beginnings

Perhaps the biggest challenge this season is deciding when to adjust expectations based on a player's early numbers. Normally, the prudent approach for starting pitchers is relying on more than two or three early starts. However, there isn't time for patience in this abbreviated and condensed campaign.

Complicating matters is the data clearly points to pitchers being ahead of batters, even moreso than normal. That said, there are indications hitting is catching up, as run-scoring has picked up significantly this week.

Furthermore, early studies demonstrate the air resistance on the baseball is at the 2018 level, well down from the fun ball of last season. Not to mention, word leaked out this week that the Red Sox, Mets and Mariners had a humidor installed at their venues, which will skew their own and opponents' numbers.

My initial expectation for starting pitching is particularly important since it helps drive the Weekly Pitching Rankings. To briefly review, I generate a rest-of season expectation based on initial projections, then massage it based on what has happened in-season. The rest-of-season projection still fuels the pitching rankings.

Twenty innings isn't enough to really move the needle formulaically, so it's necessary to give the initial projections a hard, unbiased review. Years of tracking early results and delineating what's real from noise has taught me to trust the system. However, every year there are some big misses, so it's also obligatory to study those and strive to minimize their number.

All this is the set up for divulging that some of my initial expectations have been altered. My heart tried to minimize the amount, but my head kept harping on the shortness of the season and the need to take chances.

That said, there's a big difference between aggression and recklessness. A tangible reason was needed to override the initial peripherals. Last week, the shortcoming of using stabilization points was discussed, so a deeper cause was necessary to tweak the baseline. Here are the starting pitchers I've adjusted, in some cases quite reluctantly. Please keep in mind the adjustment is to the initial projection. In-season performance then affects the rest-of-season expectation.

Yu Darvish, Chicago Cubs

You know the deal. Darvish's post-break numbers last season made a vintage Clayton Kershaw jealous. Regression was obviously impending, and it appears I was far too bearish on the landing point. For the record, I didn't rely strictly on my usual projection engine; I gave last year's second half more weight. An adjustment to account for the universal designated hitter was also included.

Driving the latest adjustment is that Darvish's 2020 velocity and spin rates on his six-pitch arsenal are closer to the 2019 second-half levels than his numbers before the break. That is, whatever Darvish did to alter his repertoire and dominate has carried over this season.

In 2019, Darvish's second half ERA was 2.76, wholly supported by his 2.83 FIP and 2.37 xFIP. An argument can be tendered my rest-of-season ERA for the veteran righty is still half a run too high. However, I'm comfortable with the current adjustment as 3.33 ERA/1.09 WHIP is still elite.

Trevor Bauer, Cincinnati Reds

Since becoming a full-time starter in 2014, Bauer posted four xFIPs between 4.13 and 4.60 along with 3.60 in 2017 and 3.14 in 2018. In retrospect, a 4.38 initial ERA projection was harsh, even accounting for the universal designated hitter, since Bauer already had to deal with it most of the time between 2017 and 2019. His xFIP over that three-year span was 3.73, so after accounting for the park switch, something a tad below 4.00 feels fairer.

The reason the new adjusted ERA is now even lower is also related to spin rate. Bauer is a student of pitching and when he puts his mind to something, results usually follow. One can argue he hasn't faced stellar competition, but that doesn't take away from a huge spike in fastball and curveball spin.

Dylan Bundy, Los Angeles Angels

A spreadsheet can translate numbers from Camden Yards to what they would have been in Angels Stadium, at least on paper. However, the fact the Orioles are off to a better start than the Halos notwithstanding, an algorithm can't factor in the peace of mind garnered from leaving one of the best hitting venues in the league and moving to a pitcher's paradise, not to mention the perceived weaker lineups in the AL West.

While my initial projection did assume better numbers than what a strict translation would have produced, it likely wasn't enough. Bundy's velocity is actually down, but his spin rates are essentially identical to his career levels. However, he's altered his five-pitch arsenal, throwing fewer fastballs in lieu of more sliders, with a couple additional sinkers, curves and changeups. Whether it's increased confidence or something else, Bundy's exhibited pinpoint command and control, perhaps aided by working with two of the best framers in the league, Jason Castro and Max Stassi.

Max Fried, Atlanta Braves

Mea culpa, I'll take the L on this one. Reverse engineering the initial projection, Fried's minor-league numbers from 2017 and 2018 should have been ignored, or at least significantly discounted. Recording a 3.22 xFIP last year despite the spike in offense should have been ample cause to soften the MLEs. His current 3.69 rest-of-season ERA is in lockstep with his career FIP and a little better than his career SIERA.

 Alex Cobb, Baltimore Orioles

Who knew The Thing would return? There was no reason for optimism heading into 2020, as Cobb missed most of 2019 with back and hip woes. In his 12 1/3 frames, the oft-injured righty allowed nine homers. In 2018, he registered a 4.90 ERA and 1.41 WHIP.

This adjustment could be too optimistic, but Cobb's velocity is a career best, yielding an impressive 12 mph delta from his vaunted changeup. The less flighty baseball also feeds into his improvement.

Tyler Chatwood, Chicago Cubs

This would have been a much easier sell if it was before the royal beating he took at the hands of Kansas City his last time out. However, in his previous two outings, Chatwood fanned 19 with just four free passes in 12 2/3 stanzas.

The allure with Chatwood is that he's always shown great stuff, with excellent spin rates, he just couldn't hone his control. However, he found his groove working out of the bullpen late last season, registering a palatable 8.5% walk rate after the break. He can't be expected to carry that over as a starter, but increased confidence should pave the way for Chatwood to be useful. His rest-of-season projections are essentially league average.

Alec Mills, Chicago Cubs

It's probably merely coincidental, albeit curious, that three of the seven pitchers discussed here are Cubbies. Don't worry, Jon Lester didn't make the cut, he's just been silly lucky. Truth be told, Mills has also benefited from good fortune, it's just his initial expectation was too pessimistic.

Like Fried, the culprit was a heavy dose of poor MLEs. The difference is Mills didn't have quite the MLB track record to overlook the minor-league numbers. He did display some intriguing skills splitting the time between the rotation and bullpen last season though, notching a 27.6% strikeout rate and reasonable 7.2% walk rate.

There you have it, seven starting pitchers on whom I've changed my mind. You can bet I'll be circling back to these decisions come October, though another six or so starts won't really be enough to gauge if the adjustments were warranted.