The Z Files: Top 50 Fantasy Hitters So Far

The Z Files: Top 50 Fantasy Hitters So Far

This article is part of our The Z Files series.

Once in awhile, everyone gets writer's block. When this happens in-season, one of the tricks I've developed is to run player earnings, as that helps identify players to discuss, both good and bad.

After patiently waiting for Wednesday's action to conclude, I did just that. Then it hit me. Why not present the top 20 earners with commentary?

The problem was, some interesting players just missed the cut, so the top 20 became the top 30, then the top 40, before I finally settled on the top 50.

Please keep in mind my valuation system is slightly different than the one utilized on site by RotoWire. It really doesn't matter; as I've discussed, valuation is flawed regardless of the process. Doing this gives me a chance to dig deep on a few fast or slow starters with an eye on the rest of the season.

It worked out that a home run is worth a little under a buck, while a steal earns around $1.60. These are estimates since value over replacement is used, but these numbers are close enough to make the following point: two steals equates to around $3 in earnings. As you'll soon see, $3 separates #31 from #50. As such, try not to get bogged down by the raw rankings. Once you're out of the top 10, adjacent players are almost the same.

Rank

Player

TM

$Earned

BA

HR

R

RBI

SB

1Fernando TatisSD$650.3121226296
 Hey, his BABIP

Once in awhile, everyone gets writer's block. When this happens in-season, one of the tricks I've developed is to run player earnings, as that helps identify players to discuss, both good and bad.

After patiently waiting for Wednesday's action to conclude, I did just that. Then it hit me. Why not present the top 20 earners with commentary?

The problem was, some interesting players just missed the cut, so the top 20 became the top 30, then the top 40, before I finally settled on the top 50.

Please keep in mind my valuation system is slightly different than the one utilized on site by RotoWire. It really doesn't matter; as I've discussed, valuation is flawed regardless of the process. Doing this gives me a chance to dig deep on a few fast or slow starters with an eye on the rest of the season.

It worked out that a home run is worth a little under a buck, while a steal earns around $1.60. These are estimates since value over replacement is used, but these numbers are close enough to make the following point: two steals equates to around $3 in earnings. As you'll soon see, $3 separates #31 from #50. As such, try not to get bogged down by the raw rankings. Once you're out of the top 10, adjacent players are almost the same.

Rank

Player

TM

$Earned

BA

HR

R

RBI

SB

1Fernando TatisSD$650.3121226296
 Hey, his BABIP has indeed regressed… to .355. HR/FB elevated, but fully supported by exit velocity and average fly ball distance. 
2Mookie BettsLAD$420.294921213
 No letting up after signing huge deal.
3Charlie BlackmonCOL$400.424319240
 Run at .400 obviously impressive, but where is the power? Average fly ball distance (302 feet) is silly low, especially for Coors Field
4Nelson CruzMIN$400.333919250
 Apparently, 2020 isn't "one year too late".
5Brandon LoweTB$390.330822230
 Increase in HR/FB and FB% driving early power.
6Trevor StoryCOL$380.291723154
 Quietly doing his thing.
7Anthony SantanderBAL$380.297920250
 Increase in contact very good sign, but power spike not fully supported by average fly ball distance
8Bryce HarperPHI$370.338621164
 Some luck with .346 BABIP, but career best 15.1% strikeout rate bodes well for a soft landing
9Mike YastrzemskiSF$360.313623211
 Making Grandpa proud, but underlying metrics suggest he's playing over his skis
10Mike TroutLAA$340.2841017201
 Just 5-for-27 the last week. SeLl wHiLe yoU cAN.
11Tim AndersonCWS$340.37962293
 92nd percentile exit velocity, 96th percentile Hard Hit%, 90th percentile Barrel%, 90th percentile Sprint Speed -- everyone should be so lucky
12Kyle LewisSEA$340.351517172
 Unfortunately, underlying metric scream regression (28th percentile exit velocity, 18th percentile Hard Hit%), though 25% K rate more in line with expected after 39% last season.
13Whit MerrifieldKC$330.302518174
 Good to see Merrifield running after he stopped in 2H last season and hinted he may not run much this season.
14Luke VoitNYY$320.3111016200
 Huge spike in fly ball rate (46%) and HR/FB (43.5%) driving power uptick, but both unsustainable
15Kyle SeagerSEA$320.301515223
 Three steals could be the most impressive aspect of resurgence
16Jose RamirezCLE$300.242519185
 Low average but steals are buoying earnings
17Dansby SwansonATL$300.303321163
 Carrying over 2H surge from last season
18Juan SotoWSH$290.417715161
 All this in only 56 PA - by contrast, Tatis has 122.
19Dylan MooreSEA$280.282516106
 May not sustain current level, but it's fully supported via 89th percentile exit velocity, 88th percentile Hard Hit% and 90th percentile Barrel% - plus six bags
20Aaron JudgeNYY$280.290916200
 Set to hold court again over the weekend
21Teoscar HernandezTOR$280.289813162
 Like Moore, crushing it, but for how long? 99th percentile exit velocity, 99th percentile Hard Hit% and 83rd percentile Barrel%
22Nick CastellanosCIN$270.259917200
 Power there, but run production low as Reds are 20th in runs per game
23Bo BichetteTOR$260.361511134
 Hoping to come back in September, will be tough to match start but a .353 xBA suggests it was supported.
24Matt ChapmanOAK$260.248818200
 Numbers don't look great, but 38 runs produced tied for eighth highest in the league. Still, crushing the ball but fanning at elevated 32% clip
25Michael ConfortoNYM$250.312417132
 Drop in fly balls helping average but hurting power.
26Jose AbreuCWS$240.292516190
 Steady as always
27Cavan BiggioTOR$240.244618133
 17-for-17 in steals since last season, could run more
28Starling MarteARI$240.337216113
 .284 xBA, 28th percentile exit velocity and ninth percentile Hard Hit% portend huge regression, needs to add power and speed to help mitigate
29Luis RobertCWS$240.276513134
 The rookie is playing as advertised, including 34% strikeout rate, usually a harbinger of a cold spell
30Manny MachadoSD$240.235618172
 Good example of how low the league-wide average is, top 30 despite a .235 BA
31Kyle TuckerHOU$230.239321173
 Should continue to produce with Yordan Alvarez out. More experience should aid plate skills and improve BA
32J.T. RealmutoPHI$230.274814210
 Was top 10 until recent 2-for-13 stretch
33Wilmer FloresSF$230.322612170
 Playing, and producing vs. RHP, though 32nd percentile exit velocity and 25th percentile Hard Hit% warn of dropoff
34Dominic SmithNYM$230.323611210
 Production not a surprise, though 11 runs is low relative to his slash
35Eloy JimenezCWS$220.275811190
 Get used to it, should see this for at least another decade
36Hanser AlbertoBAL$220.321218131
 Appears to be validating last season's .300 BA, but .261 xBA a concern.
37Corey SeagerLAD$220.296615170
 Statcast darling with 97th percentile exit velocity, 96th percentile Hard Hit% and 92nd percentile Barrel%, plus career best 11.5% strikeout rate
38Xander BogaertsBOS$220.282514152
 One of few bright spots in Beantown
39Ian HappCHC$220.315613141
 Walking at a 17% clip along with solid Statcast metrics - sneaky goodness in OBP and points leagues.
40Austin SlaterSF$210.34741066
 Great production for just 58 PA. Nice supporting numbers (.328 xBA) should mean Slater stays in the lineup.
41Mitch MorelandBOS$210.360710170
 .342/.432/.895 vs. RHP
42Max KeplerMIN$210.233613163
 Across the board production compensating for low BA, which is needed with a dip in exit velocity and Hard Hit% compared to last season
43DJ LeMahieuNYY$210.41121581
 Hopes to return in September.
44Mark CanhaOAK$200.279315172
 .303/.400/.636 last nine games, but also fanned at a 32.5% rate over that span
45Donovan SolanoSF$200.386114150
 Career .257 guy batting .346 as a Giant since last season. Still, support numbers indicative of closer to a .300 hitter.
46Eddie RosarioMIN$200.228616191
 Like teammate Kepler, exit velocity and Hard Hit% down, but good lineup and good park boosting numbers
47Renato NunezBAL$200.283517150
 Camden Yard helps, but underlying numbers across the board are weak
48Anthony RendonLAA$200.289615150
 Still productive, but hurt by park switch and fanning a little more, though walking a ton.
49Joey GalloTEX$200.218714162
 .258 xBA (his highest in Statcast era) hints at a rise in BA, could be worth seeing if he's available
50Wil MyersSD$200.267612171
 Rebounding from last season, and then some. Best part is Statcast says it's real, despite a high 33% strikeout rate.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Todd Zola
Todd has been writing about fantasy baseball since 1997. He won NL Tout Wars and Mixed LABR in 2016 as well as a multi-time league winner in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship. Todd is now setting his sights even higher: The Rotowire Staff League. Lord Zola, as he's known in the industry, won the 2013 FSWA Fantasy Baseball Article of the Year award and was named the 2017 FSWA Fantasy Baseball Writer of the Year. Todd is a five-time FSWA awards finalist.
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