Bernie on the Scene: Learning to Live with Wrinkles

Nothing Comes In Straight

Major League baseball players have to learn to live with wrinkles. It seems that every pitch we see now moves. Dramatically.

One of the most prominent components of this short "sprint" season is the increased use of the cutter by pitchers. And the changeup. And the slider.

The cutter is a pitch that moves very slightly toward the pitcher's glove side as it arrives at the plate. The slider has a fast, sweeping movement. The cutter has a more subtle, last-second movement that is intended to miss the barrel of the bat. And it works. 

The cutter is hurting hitters like Christian Yelich — especially from left-handed pitchers. Timing and balance are both impacted by that late, late movement. The ball looks to be fairly straight and then … it's gone. The result is weak or no contact.

Cutters, sliders and changeups are all deceptive pitches. They are less easily determined out of the hand than a curve ball. A curve ball has much more movement. 

Changeups are also killing big, strong hitters. The guys with the big bodies usually feast on fastballs. But if a pitcher can take some velocity off his fastball and get downward movement, the big hitter finds himself totally off balance. The key to the changeup is not changing the arm motion and release point at all. The same delivery while taking velocity off the ball is tough to pick up by a hitter. Lucas Giolito is a master of the changeup delivery. He is perfecting his, and it's working.

Sliders, cutters and curveballs take a great toll on the elbow. The human arm isn't designed to twist and contort the way pitchers use their arms. That's why we will continue to see an increase in elbow injuries, and as a result, the need for Tommy John surgeries.

A pitcher needs the pitch that can drift away from the hands of the hitter. That's the cutter. It might move five inches off the barrel — quickly. At the last blink of an eye. The result? Weak or no contact.

Some pitchers are living off the cutter. Shane Bieber has deployed the cutter this year more than ever. It worries me, because it causes stress. But he has perfected sequencing slider, cutter, curve. That's why he's so tough to hit. Think Mariano Rivera. He lived by the cutter. It made him a Hall of Fame pitcher. Rivera was able to stay healthy.

A great pitcher knows when to mix in the fastball. Bieber is doing that. It is no longer his bread and butter pitch.

Jon Lester and Kenley Jansen both perfected their cutters early in their careers.  Walker Buehler is another guy who relies on the cutter. So does Yu Darvish. But the list just goes on and on. Dustin May comes to mind. Chris Paddack and the Padres staff are high cutter pitchers. Each make good fantasy targets.

My point is that we are seeing depressed offensive output from traditional sluggers due to the wrinkles and movement on pitches. That means we have to be careful about how we draft these traditional sluggers in the future.

Today's pitchers are not afraid to throw any pitch in their arsenal at any count. There is no such thing as a fastball count. Those days are over. If a pitcher can last five innings, so be it.  Five innings of throwing sliders, cutters, changeups and curveballs take a toll. Pitch counts rise due to lots and lots of foul balls. Weak contact means foul balls as well as swings and misses. 

I almost think if a pitcher wants to fool a hitter, he should throw him a fastball — out of the strike zone. Up high is better. At high velocity only. 95 or higher. The pitch looks very hittable. But it isn't. Up high at 90 or 91 could be a disaster. But at 95. Bingo. A lot of swings and misses.

I have watched countless games this short season. Here are some guys I have observed struggling with cutters and changeups:

Nolan Arenado
Christian Yelich
Francisco Lindor
Miguel Cabrera
Joey Gallo
Pete Alonso
Matt Olson
George Springer
Eduardo Escobar
Marcus Semien
Adalberto Mondesi
Josh Bell
Javier Baez
Eugenio Suarez

Those guys will have to make adjustments. They will have to move up in the plate a bit to catch the ball earlier. They will have to learn the movement on the pitch in their early at-bats and see more pitches. If the ball fades quickly, it could fade outside the strike zone. Maybe they should accept more bases on balls and go deeper in counts. That's a huge adjustment for a hitter who makes a living on the long ball or gap doubles.

The Strike Zone

I have been amazed at the inconsistency of the strike zone this season. Probably more than ever, I am seeing more quality strikes missed by umpires. Why? Movement on pitches. I think umpires are being fooled by what they are seeing. They anticipate late movement and don't get it. Or the opposite. They anticipate a fairly straight fastball and get late movement.

The "automated" umps will be fooled as well. Where the pitch crosses the plate determines strike or ball. The automation may be fooled.

When a pitch crosses the plate within the strike zone and fades away, it should be called a strike. If the pitch doesn't cross the plate, between the letters and the knees, it should be called a ball. But it isn't that simple. Why? Pitches move so dramatically and so quickly it is impossible to get every pitch right. This year, however, I am finding the same pitch in the same zone called differently by the same umpire. That is frustrating hitters. It is frustrating pitchers. It is frustrating me as a fantasy player.

I am convinced that taking a pitcher deep in counts is the way to win baseball games. 

New managers like David Ross, himself a catcher, know the value of piling pitches on a pitcher's arm. Tire him. Wear him down.

Why go to the plate swinging? Yes, many guys may throw their only fastball in a sequence on the first pitch. The pitcher wants to get ahead in the count. Strike one is the most important pitch in baseball. A hitter might not see another fastball, so he swings. That plays directly into the pitcher's hands.

Popups are a result of end of the bat contact. Missing the barrel means missing the impact of bat to ball — and that's what hitting is all about. Hard contact. Not just contact, hard contact.

Why do we see hitter's swing at pitches in the dirt? Over and over. Because they look good out of the hand, the hitter is behind in the count and anxious. Late downward movement is tough to pick up. Swing. Too late to hold back. Miss. Look foolish.

Get Into The Opposition's Bullpen

A good team will do everything possible to get into the opposition bullpen as quickly in the game as possible. Relievers can't work every day. They usually work every other day. But there are only so many relief pitchers on a team. And all relievers aren't of the same quality. Get in to the pen early and wear down the opposition.

We see relievers moving from alternate playing location to the big league roster with some frequency. Teams are totally, and I mean totally, dependent upon relievers. And they are becoming much more valuable.

HEADING HOME

Last week we lost one of the greatest pitchers I ever had the privilege of watching. Tom Seaver passed away at age 75. 

Tom Terrific was.  Tom Seaver was a human illustration of why a pitcher's legs were as important as his arm. He was a "drop and drive" pitcher that owned the bottom portion of the strike zone. He used his lower body strength to get the most out of every inch of his frame.

Beside being a fabulous pitcher, Tom Seaver was a very, very fine human being. He would be the ideal role model for a young man or woman growing up with a dream of becoming a professional athlete.

I admired Tom Seaver. The baseball world will miss him, but humanity will miss him more.

Thank you for following me on Twitter @BerniePleskoff. 

I hope you will read my work at forbes.com. Here is a story I published last week at Forbes.

Have a great week everyone, and remember to thank those who have made our lives better during this horrible pandemic.