Regan's Rumblings: ... And That’s a Wrap

The end of the regular season is upon us, and I have to admit that it snuck up on me a bit. Let's take a look, by position, of the breakout stars and fantasy duds. We knew we would see high-profile players end up with poor numbers, just as we knew that formerly lesser players would put up numbers in 60 games that they wouldn't likely manage in a full season.

Catcher

Stud – Travis d'Arnaud, ATL

d'Arnaud was fine last year, batting .251/.312/.433 with 16 homers in 391 plate appearances, but he's been elite this year, batting .338/.400/.568. It seems unlikely he'll do anywhere near that over a full season, but he's certainly not fading this month, posting a 1.071 OPS in September. I'm pretty sure a .418 BABIP is not sustainable, but, then again, d'Arnaud has posted an excellent 50.5 percent hard-hit rate. He should be able to at least hang on for a few more years now and would be one of many players who could benefit from an NL DH should he stick with the Braves or another NL club.

Dud – Gary Sanchez, NYY

Sanchez is hitting .267/.333/.667 in his last eight games, but there's really no time to save a season for a guy batting .151/.253/.396. He does have 10 home runs, so the power hasn't fallen completely apart, but a 36.7 K percentage is going to make any hitter's line look poor. He's somehow posted a .155 BABIP despite a halfway decent 41.8 percent hard-hit rate, but we will have to see next year whether the Yankees think he's really their catcher going forward.

First Base

Stud – Luke Voit, NYY

Voit had a 1.069 OPS in 161 plate appearances back in 2018, and 21 home runs and an .842 OPS last year, so he was at least somewhat established, but I certainly wasn't expecting this in his age-29 year: .286/.348/.654. He has three more homers (21) than any other player, which is a massive lead if you project this over a full season. How's he doing this? Voit's flyball rate is up nearly seven points to 41.6 percent, his hard-hit rate sits at a strong 45.3 percent, and his launch angle is way up to 16 degrees. Fifteen of his home runs have come at home, so he's clearly liking his surroundings, so while we can't expect 60 homers over a 162-game season, the power is real.

Dud – Pete Alonso, NYM

I didn't expect another (prorated) 53-homer season, but I also didn't expect .207/.303/.424. That's a year-over-year ISO drop from .323 to .217. His strikeouts are actually down, but his hard-hit rate (an ugly 29 percent), exit velocity and barrels rate are also suboptimal. Alonso sports a career 26.2 K percentage, so he's not going to win batting titles, but he does have a 10.2 BB percentage, so the value should be there in OBP leagues, but the big question is the power. Will it return? It should, but how much of 2019 was due to the juiced ball?

Second Base

Stud – Jake Cronenworth, SD

Where was I on this guy?  Probably a common question for analysts. As a 25-year-old in Triple-A last season, Cronenworth hit a strong .334/.429/.520, but there is a long list of mid-20s guys who killed it in the PCL and failed in the big leagues. Not this guy, I guess. Hitting .303/.370/.516 with four homers and three steals through 173 plate appearances, Cronenworth has grabbed the second base job from Jurickson Profar and looks to be a long-term second base solution for the Padres. They'll figure out where to slot Cronenworth and top prospect CJ Abrams come 2022/2023. His ultimate power output is the big question, but with a minor league career 11.7 BB percentage and 16.6 K percentage, his control of the strike zone is impressive.

Dud – Jose Altuve, HOU

Altuve sacrificed some average for power last year, but in 2020, he's had neither, hitting a paltry .213/.279/.311 with three home runs and just two steals in 179 plate appearances. After swiping 32 bases in 2017, Altuve has just 25 in 262 games since, so if he's not hitting for average or power, what is he? Altuve looked like a future Hall-of-Famer entering the year, but 2020 has left us really wondering. Altuve's elite contact skills seemed to have deserted him, as his 78.7 percent contact rate is easily the lowest of his career, and, combined with an absence of power, we're left with a dilemma. We can't say that 100 percent of his past results came via "help" from knowing what pitches are coming, so it's probably best to just chalk this up to a lost year.

Shortstop

Stud – Corey Seager, LAD

It's true that Fernando Tatis has exceeded expectations, but we still knew he'd be good. No one else really jumped out here as having an unexpectedly good season, so we'll go with Seager despite his being a former NL ROY and top-three MVP finisher. Limited to 160 games from 2018 to 2019 due to Tommy John surgery and other ailments, Seager hit a so-so .271/.337/.468, but he's now back to his former glory, hitting .311/.362/.589. His .278 ISO is a career-best, and he's striking out just 15.9 percent of the time while posting an elite 52.9 percent hard-hit rate. It's going to take a lot of money to lock up Seager long-term, as he's set to hit free agency after next season.

Dud – Javier Baez, CHC

The counting stats (29 HR, 11 SB last year) paint Baez as a fantasy star, but with a .205/.242/.364 season that includes just two stolen bases, 2020 has been a disaster. He did enter the year with a career 4.9 BB percentage and 28.1 K percentage, so the BA downside was always there, but now his BB/K sits at an ugly 0.10, and his BABIP is down to .272 after four seasons of .336-plus. It does make one wonder whether he's hurt. There's been no indications of any underlying injury, but Baez did miss most of last September with a thumb injury, and those things tend to linger. Maybe rest and a "normal" spring training (I hope) will help him next year, but there's real reason to question Baez' ability to be a star going forward.

Third Base

Stud – Alec Bohm, PHI

Bohm entered the season with just 63 games above Class-A ball, but the 23-year-old has quickly asserted himself as a cornerstone type player. The former No. 3 overall pick was hitting .331/.389/.496 through 149 plate appearances. The power isn't quite fully developed, but anyone with his skills, pedigree and 6'5" frame can't be discounted as a threat to hit 30-plus homers annually. Just realize it may not happen right away, but Bohm looks like a future All-Star.

Dud – Eugenio Suarez, CIN

I saw that Suarez recently returned from the paternity list, so it does make one wonder whether his struggles this year relate to his being distracted by his personal life. Believe it or not, these guys are human as well, so Suarez hitting .195/.312/.460 after combining for .271/.364/.521 the previous three years could possibly be explained by small sample size and personal "distractions." His walks are actually up, and a .265 ISO is still very good, so I would expect a .202 BABIP isn't sustainable. I think he'll be okay.

Outfield

Stud – Mike Yastrzemski, SF; Wil Myers, SD; Clint Frazier, NYY

Yastrzemski – He's cooled off a bit in recent weeks, but a .285/.390/.553 season validates last year's .852 OPS and does cement Yaz' status as at least an MLB regular. Is he an All-Star? Maybe. A great story? Obviously. He also turned 30 in August, so it's fair to question how long this will last. Yastrzemski hits lefties even better than righties, so there's no fear of a platoon, so we have to question whether the 621 career plate appearances are enough to have him as what, a seventh-round pick next year? I say yes.

Myers – In zero of the six previous full seasons Myers had accrued did he have a .800 OPS. So of course, this being 2020, Myers entered Monday's game batting .298/.365/.624 with 14 home runs and a 25.0 K percentage that's improved over last year's 34.3 percent mark. Myers is set to make $22.5 million in each of the next two seasons, and suddenly, that's not looking quite as horrible. His hard-hit rate sits at an elite 50.4 percent, and he's still just 29, so perhaps Myers has rediscovered the form that got him this contract in the first place.

Frazier – Frazier received an off-day Monday, but he's still a starter even with the returns of Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton. At least he had better be, considering he's hitting .296/.410/.574 with eight home runs in just 139 plate appearances. It's been a remarkable run for the former top prospect, who quite possibly was getting his final chance in his fourth big league season to establish himself in New York. His 25.9 K percentage is still elevated, but he's balanced it with a 15.1 BB percentage in relegating Brett Gardner and Mike Tauchman to bench bats.

Dud – Bryan Reynolds, PIT; Jo Adell, LAA; Austin Meadows, TB

Reynolds – From .314/.377/.502 to .180/.279/.335, Reynolds is part of a large Pittsburgh contingent who have had disastrous 2020's. His 0.45 BB/K is actually up over last year, but poor Statcast metrics have his BABIP at .220, and his ISO is down 34 points. Reynolds is still just 25 and he's a career .312/.373/.472 hitter in the minors, so this probably is just a bump in the road.

Adell – Not everyone is Juan Soto in overcoming a lack of upper-level minor league experience and excelling right away in the big leagues. A 41.6 K percent has Adell sitting with a .464 OPS in 125 plate appearances, and make him seemingly a lock to spend a good chunk of 2021 in Triple-A. I'm not quite ready to say his 2020 diminishes Adell's long-term outlook, but it does leave him with something to prove in 2021.

Meadows – The hype was big coming off a .922 OPS/33 HR/12 SB season, but a bout with COVID-19 may very well be a large part of why Meadows is hitting .205/.296/.371. He's also probably done for the year due to an oblique injury, so maybe he drops to round five or six next year, making him a potential buy low. The 25-year-old continues to have third-round upside, but he'll enter 2021 with something to prove.

Starting Pitcher (min. 40 IP)

Stud – Corbin Burnes, MIL; Max Fried, ATL; Dinelson Lamet, SD

Burnes – He may be the favorite for the NL Cy Young award coming off a season in which he posted an 8.82 ERA. That alone is amazing, and at least speaks in part to the randomness of a 60-game season, but either way, Burnes has been great, particularly in limiting the home run ball (0.16 HR/9 vs. last year's bloated 3.12 mark). It will be interesting to see his ADP next year, as at least in the 56 innings he's tossed this year, he's looked like a frontline starter.

Fried – At 7-0 with a 1.96 ERA, Fried will garner some Cy Young votes and may have even been the favorite if not for a brief 10-day IL stint with a back injury. His 8.2 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9 aren't overwhelming by any means, but allowing no home runs all season has certainly helped. We'll see if he continues developing into a top-of-the-rotation level starter in 2021.

Lamet – Last year's 13.0 K/9 gave us a hint of what was to come, but a 3.7 BB/9 and 1.5 HR/9 led to a so-so ERA in 2019. This year, Lamet has taken a bit step forward, posting a 2.07 ERA in 65.1 innings to go with an improved 2.6 BB/9 and 0.7 HR/9. He's also upped his average fastball a full mph to an elite 97.1 mph. Cy Young 2021?

Dud – Patrick Corbin, WAS; Mike Minor, OAK/TEX; Frankie Montas, OAK

Corbin – Perhaps a 3.99 FIP indicates he hasn't been as bad as a 4.76 ERA indicates, but it is concerning to see his fastball on average has dipped from 91.9 mph in 2019 to 90.1 mph this year. He's never been a flamethrower, but losing that much could indicate a mechanical issue or possible undisclosed injury. Having made 98 regular-season starts from 2017 to 2019 would seem to indicate his past injuries are behind him, but maybe not.

Minor – Minor has had four starts in which he's allowed zero or one runs, but in his seven other outings (one in relief), his ERA sits at 10.01. Cherry picking admittedly, but after last year's 3.59 ERA and 200 strikeouts, expectations were a bit higher. We can't blame it all on the new park in Arlington, as Minor's 5.70 road ERA is nearly as bad as his 6.11 home mark.

Montas – Was it the PEDs? After posting a 2.63 ERA and 103:23 K:BB in 96 innings before his suspension last year, Montas has a 5.96 ERA in nine starts this year. He's lost nearly a full tick on his fastball, and his control has gone south (4.2 BB/9 vs. 2019's 2.2). He did change his pitch mix last year, but they'll be a lot of skepticism around his name next year.

Relief Pitcher

Stud – Alex Colome, CHW

Even with last year's 30 saves and a 2.80 ERA, many wondered whether Colome was barely hanging onto the job. After all, his 4.07 FIP and .215 BABIP screamed "regression." This year, all he's done is record 12 saves with a 0.90 ERA. He's yet to allow a homer, and his ratios (6.6 K/9, 3.5 BB/9) are both mediocre, leading to a 3.02 FIP, so yeah, he's probably been a bit lucky. Still, he's just 31 with 138 career saves, so there should be interest in his services on the free-agent market.

Dud – Craig Kimbrel, CHC

Kimbrel has been a lot better lately, posting a 1.59 ERA in 11.1 innings since an August 6 outing that took his ERA to 23.63, but I'm pretty sure most were expecting more from him than a 5.79 ERA and two saves. Kimbrel has seen his K/9 pop to 16.7 this year, but at the same time, his BB/9 has skyrocketed for the third consecutive season to 7.7, a far cry from the 1.8 mark he had in 2017. Jeremy Jeffress leads the team with eight saves and has a 1.69 ERA, but he's also been wild with a 5.1 BB/9. I'd expect the Cubs to give Kimbrel every shot to be their closer next season, but it's safe to wonder whether he's approaching the end of his career, even at 32.