MLB Betting: Wagers to Consider This Week

As the end of the regular season draws closer, the postseason will offer many opportunities to bet on baseball. Let's look at some wagers to think about with less than a week until the playoffs start.

Futures

I found an interesting wager on BetMGM involving the winner of the American League. Here are the odds for the winner by division:

AL East -110
AL Central +210
AL West +300

Eight teams will come out of the three divisions, and the AL Central has three teams that have clinched — White Sox, Twins and Indians. For the wild card series, every team plays and it's only a three-game series. So even though the Yankees and Rays have some of the best odds to win, anything can happen in a short series. I like the AL Central the best considering the teams, and that there's three teams for sure.

Odds for the National League by division are:

NL East +270
NL Central +290
NL West -125

Normally, I'd rather take the plus-odds, but I think there's still value in taking the NL West. Both the Dodgers and Padres have clinched spots and won't play each other in the first round. They would likely face each other in the second round, but odds are at least one would make it there. That puts one likely in the league championship series where either would be a favorite much higher than -125.

Wagers For This Weekend

Looking at Friday night's slate, Chris Mazza and the Red Sox visit the Braves, who are battling the Cubs for the No. 2 seed in the National League. Mazza's 1.72 WHIP suggests his 5.40 ERA should in fact be much higher. Kyle Wright will take the mound for the Braves, so I like the over in this one, which should be about 9.5. I like taking the Braves run line over a bit better, which should be around five runs, maybe 5.5. 

The Rays will send Charlie Morton to the mound Friday night, and he looks to be rounding back into form. He hasn't allowed more than three earned runs in any of his last four starts since returning from injury and threw five innings of one-run baseball last time out. Morton faces Vince Velasquez, who has a 5.46 ERA and allowed five home runs in less than 30 innings. While the line will probably be in the -150 range, taking the Rays -1.5 runs should be about +110 to +120.

Moving to Saturday, southpaw Trevor Rogers has to start for the Marlins in Yankee Stadium. The Yankees have a .196 ISO against left-handed pitching this season, seventh highest in the league. I like to take multiple Yankees to homer in this one, such as Luke Voit, Aaron Judge and Clint Frazier. Each should be in the +300 to +400 range, and only one needs to hit for this to be profitable. 

The team I like the most to bet is on the Rockies, as they go into the desert to face the Diamondbacks. German Marquez has been on point lately, allowing a 2.75 ERA in his last three starts. His opponent, Madison Bumgarner, had a good outing last time out but allowed at least two home runs in each of his previous five starts. Without Nolan Arenado (but with Trevor Story) the Rockies are likely to be about even money to win this game. I like them despite being on the road; it'll likely take only three or four runs to support a Marquez win.

Finally, let's look at Sunday's action. Austin Voth finally had a good outing last time on the mound, but before that there was a more indicative story of his talent level. He allowed 19 earned runs in his previous four starts, totaling 14.2 innings leading to a 6.25 ERA. Look for the Mets to hit an over for their team runs, which should be about 4.5. It's tough to tell if the Phillies will have a big game on the line to make the playoffs. If they do, it would be smart to back them given it  likely would be Aaron Nola taking the mound. While he struggled the last time out, it's rare for a stud pitcher to have two bad outings in a row, especially if the stakes are high. Back Nola at the Rays, which should tip the odds in our favor.