The Z Files: The Two-Headed Monster

One down, far too many to go. Earlier this week, we put the raps on the Premature Edraftulation draft, the first official National Fantasy Baseball Championship league of the 2021 season. Knock on wood, we'll play this one out, as last season's edition was put to pasture by the pandemic.

Premature Edraftulation is an NFBC satellite, commencing the final week of the previous season. It's a standard 15-team league with seven reserves and FAAB. For the past several years, I've partnered with the smoothest voice in fantasy podcasting, Derek VanRiper. This season, DVR and I drew the eighth pick -- more on that in a moment.

While I will be reviewing the squad, it won't be in the standard boilerplate manner. Instead, I'll share my mindset at the time of some of the selections.

By means of a setup, I don't usually team up in drafts. Other than this annual pairing with Derek, I fly solo. There have been a handful of exceptions over the years, including a couple of high-profile victories, but my preference is to go it alone.

Other than it's fun to cyber-hang with DVR for a couple of weeks and I respect his fantasy baseball acumen, there's a selfish reason to get the "Industry Scum" together each September. While DVR and I have some overlap in terms of player analysis and game theory approach, there are differences which I find enlightening.

If co-managers contend each would have drafted the exact same team without the other's input, they're lying. I don't care how long they've been working together; the team would have been different if drafting alone.

To be clear, I was on board with all 30 selections. However, there are times in a draft where there are multiple possible directions a roster can go in, so it's a matter of team build and not player evaluation driving the selection. In these scenarios, there is no singular right choice. That said, the contributions and characteristics of the player could send the roster out of one's comfort zone. When it comes to preseason preparation, I'm a huge fan of testing uncharted waters, so agreeing to a player that forces an alternate focus is a great learning experience.

The issue is here is sometimes this goes only one way, as one partner is doing what they would have done anyway. Hence, I deem the reasons I co-manage with DVR as selfish. The underlying trust is that while I may not have gone down that road, DVR's track record is solid, so the direction is not wrong, simply different.

Another reason I team with Derek: this draft is done blindly in terms of knowing market price. There is no ADP on which to base decisions. It helps to have someone else venture a guess as to where a player may be picked.

Furthermore, as most of you know, formulaic rankings are my drafting foundation. Sure, I understand team construction involves frequently straying from the list, but it's comfortable for me to have a spreadsheet-driven means of estimating player performance. I'm borderline certifiable when it comes to this sort of thing, but even I don't have 2021 projections done before the 2020 season even ends. Many might consider this irrational, but ranking players without a ballpark idea of how everyone will do gives me the willies. Having DVR to help restore some feng shui is invaluable. Hmm, come to think of it, I'm not really sure why Derek keeps me around.

If there's any takeaway from this exercise, it's to find a partner and draft a team or two. It doesn't have to be a money league so long as all participants treat it seriously. Even you're as obstinate as me and eschew teaming up "when it counts", the experience will enrich your preparation for the real thing.

With that as a backdrop, here is the 2021 entry for "Industry Scum", a team name bestowed upon us by league member Bryan Vogel, an all-around good guy who is a friend of the site, an accomplished high-stakes player and a diehard Atlanta Braves fan.

1.08 Juan Soto

Ronald Acuna, Fernando Tatis, Shane Bieber, Mookie Betts, Mike Trout, Jose Ramirez and Gerrit Cole were the first seven picks in order. As an aside, the initial seven rounds of the draft are discussed HERE.

Derek and I are both Trea Turner fans, and initially the lean was in his direction, but we agreed steals could be found later and grabbed Turner's teammate, Soto. While I'm not done with my first-run projections and rankings yet, the hitting engine is complete and I snuck a look at several of the top batters and my guess is Soto will be in my top five… that's overall, not just among hitters.

2.08 Max Scherzer

Again, I signed off on every pick, but this probably wouldn't have been my choice without DVR. We talked about a bunch of players and I knew this was the ideal time for Derek to take the reins and set the team down an unfamiliar path, at least for me. In fact, I told him he could take anyone… except Alex Bregman. There will be a time I'll get into specific players, for now suffice it to say I continue to lag the market on Bregman. However, I did agree to consider him if he made it to the next round.

Announcer: He was drafted four picks later.

It's fair to wonder if not Scherzer, then who? I can feel the eyes rolling, but I really missed having projections available here. My usual approach would have been a second batter, but no one passed the sniff test, despite having arms taken the previous three picks. The past couple of seasons, the numbers said to pop a Starling Marte or J.D. Martinez. For different reasons, neither was in play. I can't say definitely, but Lucas Giolito would likely have been my selection. Scherzer has a higher ceiling, but Giolito's health is better and his floor/ceiling combo is fine.

In my mind, Scherzer added some risk to the team. When that happens, there are different means of proceeding. You can either balance out the risk with safer players, or steer into the skid. In a standalone league, I usually favor the former.

Announcer: Zola is old-school and is too much of a wuss to take many risks

3.08 Adalberto Mondesi

Projections are not needed for Mondesi. His plausible outcomes range from hitting .220 with "at least he hit 10 homers and stole 18 bases" to the top hitter in fantasy. We decided to address steals with someone in the running to lead the league. We also added to the risk profile.

Announcer: Zola nearly broke out in hives

4.08 Luke Voit

With Voit, the concern isn't a projection, but rather a feel for the market. Traditionally, recency bias dominates this draft. Examples are DJ LeMahieu at 1.12, Bo Bichette at 2.09, Jose Abreu at 3.02 and Eric Hosmer at 4.11. It was surprising Voit and his league-leading 22 dingers was still on the board. While he would have been hard-pressed to maintain the pace over a longer schedule, I'm confident Voit's power is real, in part because he can go the other way and take advantage of the dimensions in Yankee Stadium.

5.08 Sonny Gray, 6.08 Jose Berrios

With a nice base of power and speed in place, it was time to address pitching. DVR had been talking up Gray, which was fine by me as I'm a big fan. I don't know if Derek ceded the Berrios pick to me because he felt he got his guy (which was in fact our guy) the prior pick, but Berrios was definitely my top choice here, and would have been the one I suggested if Gray was sniped in the fifth.

7.08 J.D. Martinez

The seventh round featured several 2020 disappointments including Eugenio Suarez, Ketel Marte, Max Muncy and Nick Castellanos. Derek and I waffled between JDM and Nelson Cruz. To be honest, we almost took one in the sixth but rolled the dice one would be available now, and we assumed Berrios would have been picked. We guessed right and with Cruz going the previous pick, the decision was made for us.

In terms of risk, Gray and Berrios counter some of the Scherzer uncertainty. However, the bats are lining up to score either 70 points or 30.

8.08 Matt Chapman

The good thing about picking eighth in a 15-team league is you don't have to worry about messing up the round and pick number when doing one of these reviews. I proposed Chapman, so I hope DVR was on board. We talked it out, reviewing his injury issues and decided he should be healthy and in line for a rebound. That said (remember, I'm a wuss), in my mind, I owed Derek a pick since I pushed pretty hard for Chapman.

9.08 Zack Greinke

I'm pretty sure we were in lockstep here as we had talked about Greinke for several rounds. The risk/reward balance felt right in the ninth. The veteran has been a borderline SP1 forever but at some point, they'll be those who wish they didn't draft Greinke one year too late. This is deep enough that even if he slips, it's baked into the price.

10.08 Michael Brantley, 11.08 Ian Happ

Derek and I were on the same page with Brantley as he adds batting average stability to a lineup featuring potential torpedoes in Mondesi, Chapman and perhaps Martinez. Happ, on the other hand, was the make-good pick for Chapman. Derek has mentioned Happ for several rounds, believing there's another level along with fairly secure playing time. After reviewing the Statcast data, I agreed. That said, there's no way Happ would have been on my radar, another salient reason for drafting with someone else.

12.08 Gavin Lux

We had casually talked about Lux for a few rounds, pondering why he wasn't trusted by the Dodgers as he was late last season. In the end, the judgement was it was one of those things and Lux should be fine. He's not a pick I'd normally make. It's nothing personal towards Lux, but I don't usually draft younger, unestablished hitters at this point, preferring someone like Kolten Wong.

Announcer: Zola is a dumbass as Wong wasn't drafted until the 28th round

13.08 Austin Nola

Catcher is another example of where I longed for projections and, I'll say it… ADP. My usual approach is to identify a handful of backstops I favor more than the market. It can be anyone from J.T. Realmuto in an early round, as it was this season, to an end-game receiver. Without the aid of my little black box and an idea where others rank the inventory, I was blind. That said, I like Nola's ability to play all over, and with the Padres still in the playoffs when the pick was made, if he had been a big hit, the "what have you done for me lately" crowd would have been all over him.

14.08 Gary Sanchez

Announcer: Zola is trying to think of the right way to say this

I prefaced this by saying I rubber-stamped all 30 picks, Sanchez included. However, this isn't an indication I expect a big bounce-back (though Statcast does portend a rebound), but rather that Sanchez fits well into the risk profile of the team.

As discussed in the preamble, I consciously wanted the roster to be off course. It has more risk than I usually incur, and we still have speed and saves to address. When we podcasted together, Derek often talked about playing the game with an "if everything goes right" approach. Drafting Sanchez fits that mold.

15.08 Kirby Yates, 16.08 Will Smith (P), 17.08 Caleb Smith, 18.08, Michael Kopech

Being devoid of saves at this point usually means waiting even longer and throwing darts at speculative closers. That's a defensible ploy in this landscape, especially in such an early draft, but there was one guy still out there. Perhaps it was out of sight, out of mind, but a couple months ago Yates was one of the first closers off the board. Pitchers usually recover from bone chip surgery, but Yates will turn 34 a week before Opening Day.

Kopech is another risk, but with four solid starters and Caleb Smith impressing down the stretch, he's a fun dart. The schedule may not be regional next season, but the AL Central will still be weak, so Kopech should have plenty of weeks where he's in a good streaming spot.

Announcer: Remember, Scum is now in 'if everything goes right' mode

19.08 Jon Berti

It's well documented Berti is a personal favorite and I waited long enough to bring him up. For the record, this (not Round 12) is when I first started to make a case for Kolten Wong.

20.08 Wander Franco, 21.08 Julio Rodriguez

Oy vey. This is something I never do. I mean, in this draft it's a perfectly reasonable gamble since there will be so many emerging players available to backfill if one or both of the young prospects doesn't break camp. Still, this sort of move flies against every fiber of my DNA (which helps explain why I haven't been as successful as others in the high stakes arena).

Announcer: After seeing these picks, Clay Link may ask to be a co-manager

The rest of Industry Scum…

22.08 Josh Lindblom

23.08 Carlos Santana

24.08 Miguel Andujar

25.08 Clarke Schmidt

26.08 Austin Gomber

27.08 Jared Oliva

28.08 Emmanuel Clase

29.08 Luis Patino

30.08 Garrett Crochet

There's nothing too enlightening here, just a combination of upside arms and a couple of potential rebound bats. For those wondering, there is a FAAB period before the season. Derek and I may end up exhausting our budget so we can field an active lineup, but that's OK.

Announcer: Thanks for reading. I hoped you enjoyed the review, and it prompts you to take heed and pair up with someone for an early draft or two.