MLB Betting: World Series Preview

MLB Betting: World Series Preview

This article is part of our MLB Betting series.

Championship Series Results

I recommended Rays -167 on Draft Kings. I didn't like the value of Dodgers -225, although I said it was the best series line. I did, however, recommend Dodgers 4-2 at +350 and/or Dodgers 4-3 at +440, both of which are on FanDuel. I also recommended a Rays/Dodgers World Series at +135, which is on FD and DK. 

Division Series Results

I went 3-for-3 on my DS picks: Rays +114, Astros +116 and Dodgers -220, all on FD. I recommended staying away from the Braves/Marlins series, as I felt the Braves should have been closer to -160 — the best you could do was -194. 

I liked the Dodgers +350 and Rays +700 to win the World Series before the playoffs started. 

WORLD SERIES

1 Rays vs. 1 Dodgers (at Globe Life Field)

It's possible the Dodgers will pitch Clayton Kershaw in Game 4 on short rest, although I would advise against that, given how well the Rays hit southpaws. We can expect some combination of Julio Urias, Dustin May and Tony Gonsolin to log bulk innings in at least Game 3 and whoever isn't used in Game 3 would either follow or open for Kershaw, assuming he pitches in Game 4 on short rest. There are no notable injuries on either side.

Projected rotations:

Game 1 (10/20): Tyler Glasnow vs. Clayton Kershaw (L)

Game 2 (10/21): Blake Snell (L) vs. Walker Buehler

Game 3 (10/23): Charlie Morton vs. Dodgers bullpen

Game 4 (10/24): Rays bullpen vs. Clayton Kershaw (L)

Game 5 (10/25): Tyler Glasnow vs. Walker Buehler

Game 6 (10/27): Blake Snell (L) vs. Dodgers bullpen

Game 7 (10/28): Charlie Morton vs. Clayton Kershaw (L)

Road wRC+ vs. RHP: Rays 104, Dodgers 106

Road wRC+ vs. LHP: Rays 107, Dodgers 110

The sports books are treating this like the Dodgers are the overwhelming favorites, but a large reason for that is because they know that way more money is going to come in on the Dodgers than the Rays, given the size of the markets and fanbases and public familiarity with the team, so the sports books need to protect themselves. In reality, these two teams are incredibly even, so the value bets will be on the Rays side of things. I really think this is one of those series where if they played 10 seven-game series, the teams would split and win five apiece.

Here are my favorite value bets:

Rays +160 on FD and DK

Rays +1.5 games -112 on DK

Dodgers 4-2 +370 on FD

Dodgers 4-3 +460 on FD

Rays 4-3 +650 on DK

The pick: The World Series isn't necessarily the time to try to make a big profit. You could have done that with a pre-playoffs bet on either of these teams or by compiling your winnings from the Dodgers, Rays and Astros throughout the playoffs. These are all pretty tempting, but I'm going to play things safe and go with the Rays +1.5 games at -112 on DK. This pays out if the Rays win in any number of games or if the Dodgers win in seven games. If you'd rather get a bigger pay day, I'd recommend Rays +160 or one of the 4-2 or 4-3 bets.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
James Anderson
James Anderson is RotoWire's Lead Prospect Analyst, Assistant Baseball Editor, and co-host of Farm Fridays on Sirius/XM radio and the RotoWire Prospect Podcast.
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