Bernie on the Scene: NL Central Analysis & Predictions

The National League Central Division is giving me fits. I have changed my mind several times, but I think I am settled on my predictions.

The standings, lineups, win totals and player grades are mine. You may not agree, and that's perfectly fine.

In the order of their finish, here is how I see the 2021 NL Central as of this writing. Of course, things could change with injuries, trades or free-agent signings.

Please keep in mind that for me, a Grade C player is an average major league player. That's where I begin my thinking on Grades. Most major league players have average ability.

NATIONAL LEAGUE CENTRAL

MILWAUKEE BREWERS
Estimated $106M Payroll
My Estimated Win Total: 91

Lineup (grinders)

Kolten Wong, 2B, BL, Grade C+
Can hit some, but Brewers will benefit by outstanding defense he brings to the infield.

Lorenzo Cain, CF, BR, Grade C+
His slip is showing, but he is still a quality big-league player on both sides of the ball.

Christian Yelich, LF,  BL, Grade A
Returns to his former impact with a bat that will once again boom.

Keston Hiura, 1B, BR, Grade B
Playing first base full time will work for him, and he will be bordering on stardom.

Travis Shaw, 3B, BL, Grade C- (non-roster spring invitee)
The weakest link in the lineup, he will likely be part of a platoon or possibly lose his job entirely.

Jackie Bradley Jr., RF, BL, Grade C+
Big addition for the club because he can surprise with his bat and play top-quality defense.

Orlando Arcia, SS, BR, Grade C
He'll get the job done, but I don't see much offense from that bat.

Rotation (solid)

Brandon Woodruff, RHP, Grade B+
The ace of the staff, Woodruff can keep his team in games and win.

Corbin Burnes, RHP, Grade B
This year we will be saying great things about this improving, quality starter.

Josh Lindblom, RHP,  Grade C-
I liked him when he was a prospect, but I worry about his home park causing him trouble. He could go either way from really good to really, really bad. Careful here.

Adrian Houser, RHP, Grade C
Could surprise and surpass my expectations, but offers average ability, at best. Coming off a very tough 2020 with a 5.30 ERA.

Brett Anderson, LHP, Grade C
We've seen this show many times, and much depends upon his ability to stay healthy. He could be a very credible starter.

Closer (superb)

Josh Hader, LHP, Grade A
Still the best in the business, but his set-up man might get saves of his own.

Devin Williams, RHP, Grade A-
I would not hesitate to give the ball to this stud in the ninth inning.

Bench (average)

Avisail Garcia, OF, BR
I think he gets plenty of playing time and makes the most of his opportunities. Seems highly motivated.

Manny Pina, C, BR
Quality back up catcher.

Luis Urias,  2B, BR
I see him threatening for a full-time job. It won't take him long to be the full-time third baseman.

Daniel Robertson, 2B, BR
Could be challenged for a roster spot by a guy like Daniel Vogelbach or someone else.

Piece by piece, the Brewers might not look like an outstanding club. However, this is a very solid team when one considers the sum of their individual parts. No manager gets more from his entire roster than Craig Counsell, who is among the best in the game. Yelich and Hiura will lead the way, but the rest of the lineup contributes to scoring runs. Woodruff and Burnes give the club an outstanding one-two punch in the rotation. The rest of the starters don't light my fire, and it could be a huge problem that could cost the team the division. But Josh Hader and Devin Williams certainly do make a huge difference. Games will be shortened with a solid Brewers pen, meaning the starters may stay healthy and strong. But the No. 3, 4 and 5 starters give me great pause.

ST. LOUIS CARDINALS
Estimated $146M Payroll
My Estimated Win Total: 84 

Lineup (acceptable)

Tommy Edman, 2B, BB, Grade C+
A versatile, under the radar player with upside remaining, Edman may move around on defense.

Paul DeJong, SS, BR, Grade C
Prone to huge spurts of both good production and slumps, probably the No. 20 shortstop in the game.

Paul Goldschmidt, BR, Grade B
I think a healthy wrist and healthy swing could propel him even more with Arenado around.

Nolan Arenado, 3B, BR, Grade A-
Arenado has shown some negative home run and overall hitting regression, but he's still a very, very good overall player. It isn't Coors anymore, but he'll still hit his line drives.

Dylan Carlson, RF, BB, Grade C+
Carlson is due to break out and is a quality hitter with overall grade improvement coming.

Yadier Molina, C, BR, Grade C
A manager on the field, Molina's defense and handling of pitchers is still superb.

Tyler O'Neill, LF, BR, Grade C+
This guy could hit 25 homers and strike out in droves.

Harrison Bader, CF, BR, Grade C
Not an offensive threat, but a quality baseball player who adds to their chemistry.

Rotation (solid)

Jack Flaherty, RHP, Grade B-
I  am concerned about his inconsistency, and I know he can still improve. I'm not totally sold that he deserves all the solid hype. Prove me wrong, Jack.

Kwang Hyun Kim, LHP, Grade C+
Knows how to pitch and is a craftsman with breaking balls that are tough to barrel.

Adam Wainwright, RHP, Grade C+
This guy is remarkable and I never count him out. He's a winner and knows his craft. Every pitcher on their team learns from him.

Carlos Martinez, RHP, Grade C

I don't ever get excited because he always lets me down. Maybe this is finally his year. Or, maybe it isn't.

Miles Mikolas, RHP, Grade C
Good command and control as he provides the team a steady, quality fifth starter.

Closer (very good)
Any one of four could win the job.

Alex Reyes, RHP, Grade B-
If  they keep his arm on his body, he could be a great closer.

Giovanny Gallegos, LHP, Grade B-
He will steal saves from Reyes and take over if Reyes falters at all or gets hurt again.

Andrew Miller, LHP, Grade C+
When he's good, he's good. When he's bad, he's bad. I've seen both of those guys.

Jordan Hicks, RHP, Grade C+
He could either set up or close as part of a terrific Cardinals bullpen.

Bench (weak)

Andrew Knizner, C, BR

Matt Carpenter, INF, BL
Remember when he flew off draft boards really early?

Edmundo Sosa, INF, BR

Justin Williams, OF, BL

Imagine getting Nolan Arenado for prospects and getting Colorado to pay his salary?  Well, that's what the Cardinals did. The Rockies are on the hook for a year of Arenado's paycheck. And he'll make a huge difference in a Cardinals lineup that needs his bat. Given Arenado and Goldschmidt hitting in tandem, that could be exciting. The outfield is still the weakest part of the team. The Cardinals will have quality starters who can get to a terrific bullpen. The pitching could keep the team in the hunt if the starting pitching performs well enough. They will miss Wong's defense. But … Don't ever rule out the Cardinals.

CHICAGO CUBS
Estimated $158M Payroll
My Estimated Win Total: 82

Lineup (not too threatening)

Ian Happ, CF, BB, Grade C
The club is hoping he becomes what it had hoped for all along. We'll see. A sleeper.

Anthony Rizzo, 1B, BL, Grade B
I still think this guy brings a solid bat to the plate and fear to the opposition.

Kris Bryant, 3B, BR, Grade B
Not what we thought he would be, but he's still a guy who can swing a solid bat and produce.

Willson Contreras, C, BR, Grade C+
One of few fantasy catchers that may provide at least average offensive production.

Joc Pederson, LF, BL, Grade C+
Wrigley Field may be tricky for his home run swing, but he can hit 30 if the wind cooperates in his home park. A feast-or-famine guy.

Javier Baez, SS, BR, Grade B-
Too much swing-and-miss, too many strikeouts, but he still has power in that bat. He has a payday waiting, and I wonder if he'll cash in. Recent comments about his lack of motivation will hurt him at the free-agent pay window.

Jason Heyward, RF, BL, Grade C
An average hitter, a solid defender and a good player. But not a game-changer on offense.

Nico Hoerner, 2B, BR, Grade C+
He has to show he belongs as a regular on this club. They need him to hit.

Rotation (mediocre)

Kyle Hendricks, RHP, Grade B-
He's still under the radar and should be in the conversation that includes solid starting pitchers. Somehow, he gets forgotten.

Jake Arrieta, RHP, Grade C
Don't count on strikeouts or on lengthy outings. Actually, don't count on much at all.

Zach Davies, RHP, Grade C+
I see him as a nice addition to this staff. He is credible and fairly capable as a mid-rotation starter.

Alec Mills, RHP, Grade C
An average pitcher, he should be able to eat some innings and keep his team in most games.

Trevor Williams, RHP, Grade C-
Probably starts 20 games and will be looking over his shoulder for the guy that replaces him.

Closer (iffy)

Craig Kimbrel, RHP, Grade C+
I've seen the good, and I've seen the bad. The Cubs have no idea which one shows up on a given day. The good Kimbrel is a better than average closer.

Bench (above average)

Austin Romine, C, BR
He could really help on both sides of the ball.

David Bote, INF/OF, BR
Versatile guy could threaten for a full-time role at some point.

Ildemaro Vargas, INF/OF, BB
Frankly, I really don't know what he brings.

Jake Marisnick, OF, BR
A very fine defensive centerfielder who replaces Albert Almora.

The Cubs have reduced both their payroll and their fan interest. This is not a team that will threaten anyone on a consistent basis. They may beat up on some Central foes, but their pitching is not deep and they can't afford an injury or poor performance. I do think Rizzo and Bryant will hit, but the strikeout rate of Baez is a major concern — especially with men on base. He just swings too hard and misses too much. They'll miss Yu Darvish and even maybe Jon Lester. They have little pitching depth. And I do think they'll miss Kyle Schwarber's power. This team is disappointing right now.

CINCINNATI REDS
Estimated $126M Payroll
My Estimated Win Total: 79

Lineup (could score runs in a very hitter friendly park)

Jesse Winker, LF, BL, Grade C+
Winker is a good gap hitter without much power, but he could surprise.

Nick Castellanos, RF, BR, Grade B-
I think he is under the radar this year in fantasy. He can still rake.

Joey Votto, 1B, BL, Grade C+
Old man time is catching up, but he is still dangerous and a very fine player.

Eugenio Suarez, 3B, BR, Grade B-
Power off the charts. I look for him to come back and barrel some balls. Make or break year for him.

Mike Moustakas, 2B, BL, Grade B-
What's not to like about Moose?  He always surprises and he'll hit again in that park.

Nick Senzel, CF, BR, Grade C+
Is this the year? When do the Reds give up on his power potential? Good trade chip.

Kyle Farmer, SS, BR, Grade C-
I think he'll be replaced sooner than later in a trade.

Tucker Barnhart, C, BL, Grade C-
Part of a platoon at the position, but the Reds catching is weak overall.

Rotation (top heavy)

Sonny Gray , RHP, Grade B
I'm sure he didn't appreciate the trade rumors. He sill is a quality starter in a tough home park.

Luis Castillo, RHP, Grade B
He's a good pitcher that any team would want. I hope for his sake they trade him.

Tyler Mahle, RHP, Grace C
Middle of the road starter in the middle of the rotation.

Wade Miley, LHP, Grade C
This cat has like 15 lives. He could be gone to a team looking for a lefty.

Michael Lorenzen, RHP, Grade C
Should win the fifth starter's job, but may be inconsistent.

Closer (strong options)
A potential committee looms 

Amir Garrett, LHP, Grade B-
Could get the first crack at the job.

Lucas Sims, RHP, Grade C
Not to be dismissed as a potential late-inning option.

Sean Doolittle, LHP, Grade C
His experience in the roll will be tempting to his manager.

Bench (mediocre)

Tyler Stephenson, C,  BR

Kyle Holder, INF, BL

Dee Strange-Gordon, INF, BL
In camp as an invitee. This may be his last rodeo.

Shogo Akiyama, OF, BL
This is the guy who could get outfield playing time.

After showing signs that they would spend money and try to be competitive last year, the Reds returned to keeping a double-lock on the office safe. They have managed to return from hopeful last year to frugal and indifferent this season. If he had any shelf life left as a pitcher, every starter was seen as "available" to be traded. They have reduced their payroll by $18M, which is the equivalent of two very solid major league players. Reds fans deserve better.

Lack of starting pitching depth will be the downfall in a long season. But … they could surprise if they add some depth on the mound. Don't count on it. But yes, they can hit. Pitching will be their nemesis.

PITTSBURGH PIRATES
Estimated $45M Payroll
My Estimated Win Total: 60

Lineup (average, at best)

Adam Frazier, 2B, BL,  Grade C
Not yet 30, it just seems like he's been around forever, but maybe he can help a woeful club.

Ke'Bryan Hayes, 3B, BR, Grade B-
This is the best overall player on the team, with a chance to really get good in time.

Colin Moran, 1B, BL, Grade C
He showed some signs of life — finally. Former No. 1 pick could carry an even better bat this year.

Bryan Reynolds, LF, BB, Grade C
A huge disappointment last year, but I still think there is life in his game. He has to step up.

Gregory Polanco, RF, BL, Grade C
I always expected more from him, but he's still only 29 going into the season. Can he improve?

Anthony Alford, CF, BR, Grade C-
Couldn't make it with Toronto, and now he has new life and a starting role.

Jacob Stallings, C, BR,  Grade C
A better hitter than many assume, he can be a hidden fantasy option at catcher.

Kevin Newman, SS, BR,  Grade C
Hello, Newman. It looks like the job can finally be yours. But what will he produce?

Rotation (dreadful)

Steven Brault, LHP, Grade C
Might be the best they have after trading starters. That's not saying much.

Chad Kuhl, RHP, Grade C-
ERA could be close to 5.00 by the time the season is over. A fifth starter on many clubs, he has to give them innings and stay healthy.

Tyler Anderson, LHP, Grade C
Signed as a free agent, the Pirates really need him to come through. Don't be the farm on it.

Mitch Keller, RHP, Grade C
Pirates continue to hope he can pitch. I think he'll have some real problems, but he has promise.

JT Brubaker, RHP, Grade C-
Could win the No. 5 starting job on a very bad rotation in his first full year at the big-league level.

Closer (meh)

Richard Rodriguez, RHP, Grade C
The job is his with not much competition in a very weak and shallow bullpen

There is no team in baseball that has been allowed to disintegrate into a Triple-A organization more than the Pittsburgh Pirates. They have again cut payroll, this time by $17M. They have also traded Joe Musgrove and Josh Bell, two quality major leaguers. In return they got what they wanted — a reduction in their payroll as well as mediocre prospects. I think they will struggle to win 60 games.

Heading Home

We are heading into the heart of fantasy draft/auction season. Now is the time to review all the available players and see who among them you want to root for on your fantasy teams. I say that because I don't think 2020 was a good indication at all of what a player is capable of producing. Two spring trainings and a short season messed up the minds, bodies and abilities of many, many players. I suggest a thorough evaluation of every player before draft day. Look at 2019 as a base, not 2020.

• As we head to the middle of March, clubs will be trying to make decisions about position battles and roster depth. The 26th man on the roster may the guy who is a yo-yo, going from the big leagues to the minor leagues with frequency. Check out who gets cut last. He may return.

• I am always happy to answer any of your questions here on the site. Just use the comment portion below to fire away. I'll do my best to offer my thoughts. However, i don't know your league rules or your roster depth. So I will do my best if you ask me player decisions on this site or on Twitter.

• Thanks for the fantastic interest in the Bernie on the Scene fantasy leagues. Both leagues are sold out. We'll be back next year, so act early when you see the notices.

Follow me on Twitter @BerniePleskoff.  My work may be found at forbes.com as well.

Have a great week.