Collette Calls: Spring Training Grab Bag

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Published on March 30, 2021

Let's be real; draft season is essentially over for everyone save the hardliners who hold true to the original Rotisserie rules and draft one weekend after Opening Day. I know such leagues exist because I am in one and I am delaying celebrating my 18th wedding anniversary for my AL keeper league and to sub-draft for a good friend the following morning. My anniversary is not technically until the Monday afterward, but it is a good thing I've built up quite the balance my my relationship cache lately. I am writing this piece over the weekend where I find myself without a draft for the first time all month and I am at peace with that. It has been tempting to get into one more NFBC event, but it has also been rewarding to catch up on my projects lists and cross many items off the list that had moved into past due status for my target dates.

We have reached the point of spring where specific advice articles have reached their shelf life and now it about applying everything you have learned in the offseason. Leagues are not won or lost in the opening week of the season, but I am drooling over what Mookie Betts and company could do at Coors Field opening weekend. Betts is the anchor of my Rotowire OC team, and it is the first time he has made an appearance on my roster, so I am excited to see what he does in

This week, I want to look at a few things at a high level from spring training to get you thinking about the weeks and months ahead.

Josh Bell is hitting the ball hard again. The Grapefruit League does not yet have StatCast data available in all parks, but the ones where it is available have shown Bell hitting the ball hard with seven of his 11 recorded batted ball events at least 100 mph with a max of 108.6. Bell exceeded that max velocity total six times in the 2020 season. The strikeout rate from 2020, the worst of his career, has stuck around this spring, so we may need to temper our expectations around a batting average resurgence, but it is nice to see Bell raking again after his dismal 2020 campaign.

Bobby Dalbec has picked up where he left off in 2020. Dalbec has seven homers, 16 RBIs and a healthy .311/.392/.822 batting line in 45 at-bats this spring. I honestly do not know what to make of the guy. I am on record that I am pessimistic about his 2021 potential, but the power and the situation of playing in the comforts of the AL East is getting tougher and tougher to ignore. If we combine his 2020 stats and what he has done in spring training this year, they look like this:

PA: 143
HR: 15 (one every 9.5 PA)
Triple-slash: .280/.371/.680
BB%: 11%
K%: 41%

A strikeout rate that high is a tough thing to overcome, as not many active major leaguers have that on their resume. Most players who had a strikeout rate that high did not do much in any season after that, but the ones which have survived in recent years have overall seen positive outcomes the following season. The graph below shows the percentage increase or decrease for existing major leagues the season following the 40 percent or higher strikeout rate:

Aaron Judge does not exactly blow the curve for the group as Jared Walsh is not too far behind him there. On the other end of the spectrum lies Tyler O'Neill and Joey Gallo, and Gallo is particularly concerning because he spent nearly the entire season in the minor leagues the next year. Judge went on to hit 52 homers the next season, so the range of possible outcomes for Dalbec is truly all over the place. The average year-over-year impact of the group above was 18 percent, which translates to a .472 wOBA for Dalbec in 2021. Only Juan Soto had a higher wOBA than that figure in 2020.

Dalbec also swung and missed at 21 percent of the pitches he faced last season. Only Jorge Alfaro, Tom Murphy, Tyler O'Neill and Luis Robert remain in the major leagues and have done that. Alfaro swung and missed at one of every four pitches last season and nearly the same amount in 2018. Simply put, Dalbec's success is going to live and die by his ability to make contact. Only 2015 Gallo and 2018 O'Neill have posted lower Contact% rates than the 57 percent Dalbec posted last season. Most do not expect Boston to contend, so Dalbec should have a longer leash than he would have had in Boston in recent years.

Tim Anderson is making more contact. Anderson has a career 25 percent strikeout rate, which has been a bit better in recent seasons but he has yet to have a season where that rate has been below 21 percent. Anderson is having a strong spring, hitting .309 in 55 at bats, but more important, has a 16 percent strikeout rate. He has hit higher than .320 in each of the last two seasons despite the strikeout rate due to the quality of contact he makes as well as his ability to hit the ball to all fields. An increase in contact could add some nice protection to that batting average as it fuels his on-base percentage given Anderson rarely accepts his walks.

Seattle is on the move while San Diego is stalled. Manager Scott Servais has had the petal to the metal in Arizona as the Mariners lead the majors both with 42 stolen-based attempts and 32 steals. Sam Haggerty is 6-for-6 while Jake Fraley has gone 4-for-6 in his steals chances. Servais' team led the American League in stolen bases in 2020 with 50, besting the Royals by one. They trailed only the Padres and Royal in attempts, but Seattle has maintained a 75 percent stolen-base success rate from 2020 into this spring. They are over the break-even point of 72 percent on steals, which means Seattle is likely to continue its movement on the bases, and that speaks well for J.P. Crawford, Dylan Moore, Taylor Trammell and Sam Haggerty assuming he makes the roster.

San Diego, meanwhile, is 13-for-26 this spring (48 percent success rate) coming off a season in which it led the league with 55 steals and converted 80 percent of attempts. Jorge Mateo is 3-for-6 while Jurickson Profar has failed in all three of his attempts as that duo has accounted for nearly half of the team's unsuccessful attempts. CJ Abrams is 3-for-3, but we are unlikely to see him for most of this season, so the loaded Padres lineup may be more station to station this season. That, or the stars are just resting their legs for the regular season.

Pitchers and their new toys. By my count, 52 pitchers are working on one or two new things this spring. There were several pitchers working on two pitches, which tells me at least one will stick whereas pitchers normally do not leverage the new pitch in the regular season around half the time. The two-pitch tinkerers this spring were:

Junis is working on a cutter and a changeup, recognizing he needs something to keep lefties at bay after they hit 39 points higher off him than righties since 2018. Either one of these pitches would help narrow the gap, otherwise he is going to be stuck in the bullpen as a long reliever.

Stroman is playing the up-down game working on his four-seam fastball as well as his split-change. The latter pitch has already showed up this spring and it looks excellent, so there could be some much-needed whiffiness coming to his game after a year off.

Lopez is working on two breaking balls as he continues to look for a way to narrow his splits. Lefties have hit 58 points higher against him than righties since 2018 even though Lopez's secondary pitch is his changeup. It is unusual to see someone throw a changeup as much as Lopez (30 percent) struggles against opposite handed hitters, but here we are.

Conversely, Corbin has never had even a decent changeup and righties have hit him hard, but the lefty is working on re-shaping his changeup and working on a cutter. Either offering would help him narrow his splits, and I believe the cutter is the one that will stick as he will be able to work it in on the righties for weaker contact.

Bieber is not satisfied with winning the Cy Young and is working on re-shaping his slider and his split-change fending off any regression as well as resumption of a normal schedule that does not involve facing the weaker teams in the AL Central over an entire season.

Skubal is looking for a successful sophomore season while deciding whether a re-shaped changeup or a splitter is going to be his offspeed pitch, and Glasnow has added a slutter this spring to give him a third legit offering off his overpowering fastball and hammer curveball.

Amir Garrett is human. Entering Sunday, Garrett had faced nine hitters this spring and struck out each one of them. His dream of an immaculate spring ended Sunday as he has now allowed three batters to but a ball in play. He has faced 13 batters this spring, holding them hitless while striking out 10. Manager David Bell says the closer job is wide open, and it very well could be because Garrett could end up being another Josh Hader.

Alcantara is Spanish for ace. Sandy Alcantara is the Opening Day starter for the Marlins, and with good reason. The righty has struck out 33 percent of the hitters he has faced this spring with a 1.33 ERA in 20.1 innings. He made strides last season, taking his strikeout rate from 18 to 23 percent while improving his K-BB% for a third consecutive season. Much focus is given to Pablo Lopez and (since-demoted) Sixto Sanchez, but Alcantara looks poised for a big year in 2021.

Logan Webb is ready to roar. Webb enters 2021 with a career 20 percent strikeout rate with the league hitting .281 against him in 94 innings. Webb has worked just 11 innings this spring, but has scattered three hits while striking out 17 batters (44 percent!) in that time. San Francisco has been able to work some pitching magic in recent years with donations such as Kevin Gausman and Drew Smyly, but they may have found something with this homegrown arm. I watched his last outing and was very impressed with his pitchability.

All that is left now is teams setting their final rosters so we can set our final lineups for Opening Day weekend. I'll reiterate my annual stance that Opening Day should be a national holiday, which is why I have taken this Thursday and Friday off from work so I can focus on my favorite weekend of the year.