MLB Betting: July Futures Update

MLB Betting: July Futures Update

This article is part of our MLB Betting series.

This article is part of our MLB Betting series.

I am going to cover last month's article which was written on June 14th and then update with the current odds for Mid-July and see where things have changed.

AL MVP

It is now a two-horse race and both of them (Shohei Ohtani, Vladimir Guerrero) would have to suffer season-ending injuries to fall out of contention.

Ohtani is now -335 as a consensus and Guerrero Jr. is +220. If you wanted a dark horse, I would throw a dart on Marcus Semien at +5000. He is a solid #3 and a legit shot to see his odds move significantly especially if Guerrero Jr. missed significant time.

You could have had either one at over +3000 with upwards up +5000 before the season started.

AL CY YOUNG

This has become a three-horse race now, with Gerrit Cole now -125. Cole has struggled since June 1st, and there is no value on him at this price.

The next two pitchers are from the Chicago White Sox with Carlos Rodon +200 and Lance Lynn +400. It is hard to figure out which one I would want so I am passing on both.

Shane Bieber was +600, now +3000 after being injured. 

Tyler Glasnow was +650, but looks to be done for the season.

I mentioned Chris Bassitt last month at +8000, he is now +3300. Again, it is not about whether he will win the award but if he presents value in a cash-out situation like PropSwap. I still think there is value and could see him dropping to +1500.

Other notables

Kyle Gibson +3000. Gibson has had an incredible season and if he ends up on a contender in the American League, his odds could drop considerably.

Nathan Eovaldi +3500. I really like Eovaldi here especially if the Red Sox win the AL East and have the best record in the American League. Tremendous value at +3500.

NL MVP

Ronald Acuna Jr was +375 last month, but a torn ACL has him done for the next 9-12 months.

Jacob deGrom is -115 as of this writing, but he is on the injured list again and I would seriously take him out of consideration at least at this price.

Juan Soto was +2500, now +8000. He would have to go on a serious two-month tear to get back into consideration.

Mookie Betts was +3000, now +5000. The Dodgers have not played up to expectations and he has been in and out of the lineup with nagging injuries still.

Fernando Tatis Jr was +400, now -115, and could end up -300 to -400 very quickly with the deGrom news. There is no value at this price, and I am looking at another player who I love.

Jacob deGrom was +1500, now +200. I wrote about deGrom last month being a steal at +1500. The Mets are now in 1st place and playing good baseball. The value is gone and while I don't expect him to win MVP, I am not surprised that a ton of money has come flowing in on him.

Other Notables

Trea Turner +3000. Again it is not about whether he will win, but what can his price get to. I think it can get to +1000 especially after the deGrom news. He is on pace to hit .300 with 35-40 home runs and 35-40 stolen bases. The Nationals were on a run until Kyle Schwarber tore his hamstring, so I don't know if they can jump back into the NL East race, but Turner is having a MVP type season.

NL CY YOUNG

Jacob deGrom was -225, now -1250. I would expect this number to change considerably given the injury news. You have to start looking at other options for NL Cy Young.

Corbin Burnes (opened at +4000), was +850, now +2200.  I think he is a buy at +2200, his odds could easily get to +1000 in a couple of weeks.

Trevor Bauer was +3600, now +7500. Probably will not pitch again in 2021.

Max Scherzer was +2500, now +3500. Nationals made a run, but they are fading again and Scherzer could end up getting traded to the American League.

Kevin Gausman was +2200, now +1500. Loved him at +2200, still like him at +1500, but the buying window is shrinking. With the deGrom news, I could see Gausman moving into the drivers' seat for NL Cy Young.

WORLD SERIES

We are now 60 percent through the baseball season and can start to tell who are going to be sellers at the July trading deadline. This means we also have to know who the buyers will be and who will have the most ammunition to acquire talent.

I have been touting the Rays, Astros, and Brewers as my three teams all year and I will stick with them. I am shifting towards the Rays winning the American League, the Astros to win the World Series, and the Brewers to win the National League. I am not sure the Rays have what it takes to win it all. I feel confident in the Astros (+600) to win it all based on experience and the ability to go trade for what they need. The Brewers still need to trade for at least one big-time bat or two secondary bats. But they have the pitching to get to the World Series.

The Giants are now +1800 which is where I said they needed to be last month. I can see them getting to +1000 to +1200 this time next month. Especially with the Dodgers losing Clayton Kershaw and Trevor Bauer.

The Yankees have fallen all the way to +2500 but the oddsmakers are still overvaluing them on a per-game basis and I have taken advantage still.

The White Sox are +800, but look to get Eloy Jimenez and Luis Robert back. I would also bet on them acquiring a few pieces before the trade deadline. I think they can get to +300 to +400 in the next month. 

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Michael Rathburn
Known as “Rath” in the Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) community, he has helped run operations for two prominent daily fantasy sports startups. Michael has taken his insider knowledge and expertise in daily fantasy sports to the content side. Rath won the 2016 FSWA "Baseball Article of the Year, Online" award and was a finalist for the FSWA Best Baseball Series in 2011.
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