This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
Previous article: 1-3, -2.05 RWBucks
Season: 68-71-6, -7.67 RWBucks
One run and one half-inning turned a potential 3-1 night into 1-3 Friday, but I'll look to bounce back Saturday with one interleague matchup and an AL showdown out west.
Tigers at Reds, 7:10 p.m. EDT
Starting Pitchers: Matthew Boyd vs. Tyler Mahle
The Pick: Reds Over 4.5 runs (-130 on DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 RWBuck
Secondary Pick: Tyler Mahle Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-110 on UniBet Sportsbook) for 1 RWBuck
Mahle is enjoying a stellar season, but he's had a difficult time in his home park on occasions, leading to a 6.00 ERA and 2.4 HR/9 there in 63 innings. He's fortunate Saturday in the sense that the Tigers arrive with a .229 average, .292 OBP, .283 wOBA and -6.1 wRAA against righties on the road since Aug. 1. Detroit's 25.4 percent strikeout rate in that split also puts me on Mahle's prop in that category, while the Reds' .336 wOBA at home against lefties since Aug. 1 gives confidence they'll get some runs on the board.
Rangers at Angels, 9:40 p.m. EDT
Starting Pitchers: Kolby Allard vs. Jose Suarez
The Pick: Rangers Over 1.5 runs first 5 innings (-125 on DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 RWBuck
Secondary Pick: Rangers Over 3.5 runs (-118 on FanDuel Sportsbook) for 1 RWBuck
Suarez has given up multiple earned runs in seven straight starts and sports a couple troublesome metrics, including a 3.7 BB/9 and 1.2 HR/9. He's also had trouble at home, where he's pitched to a 5.56 ERA, 1.72 WHIP and 0-3 record across 22.2 innings. The Rangers haven't been very effective against lefties on the road, but they did get to Suarez for three earned runs on six hits over 5.2 innings the one time they saw him this season and have very modest run thresholds to eclipse here to have the two bets cash.
