Dylan Carlson

Dylan Carlson

25-Year-Old OutfielderOF
St. Louis Cardinals
10-Day IL
Injury Shoulder
Est. Return 5/8/2024
2024 Fantasy Outlook
Just a few short years ago, Carlson was regarded as a promising, up-and-coming big leaguer, but his shine has taken a considerable hit on account of his .230/.316/.364 batting line over the past two seasons (743 plate appearances). He injured his left ankle in mid-May of last year and battled the ankle throughout the campaign before ultimately undergoing surgery in September. The outfielder was cleared for running and baseball activities in December, but he will still be brought along slowly in spring training. Cardinals manager Oliver Marmol once considered Carlson his leadoff hitter of the future, and his optimism was justified after a 2021 season in which Carlson had 53 extra-base hits and a .343 OBP at the age of 22. Now 25, Carlson figures to bounce back with better luck on the health front, though he is not assured a regular role out of camp and may in fact open the year as the Cardinals' fourth outfielder. Read Past Outlooks
RANKSFrom Preseason
#576
ADP
$Signed a one-year, $2.35 million contract with the Cardinals in January of 2024.
Takes part in tee work
OFSt. Louis Cardinals
Shoulder
April 15, 2024
Carlson (shoulder) was expected to hit off a tee Monday and will progress to soft toss this week, Katie Woo of The Athletic reports.
ANALYSIS
The outfielder is in the very early stages of his ramp-up after being shut down for over two weeks following a March 29 cortisone injection in his left shoulder. He will need to advance to batting practice and ultimately face high velocity before the team can start plotting out the when and where of a minor-league rehab assignment.
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Batting Stats
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2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2024 MLB Game Log
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2023 MLB Game Log
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2022 MLB Game Log
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2021 MLB Game Log
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2020 MLB Game Log
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Left/Right Batting Splits
Since 2022
 
 
+32%
OPS vs LHP
2024
No Stats
2023
 
 
+30%
OPS vs LHP
2022
 
 
+33%
OPS vs LHP
OPS PA R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
Since 2022vs Left .819 226 29 5 22 3 .291 .372 .447
Since 2022vs Right .620 517 54 8 47 5 .204 .292 .327
2024vs Left 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2024vs Right 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2023vs Left .771 85 8 2 7 1 .268 .376 .394
2023vs Right .592 170 19 3 20 2 .196 .288 .304
2022vs Left .845 141 21 3 15 2 .305 .369 .477
2022vs Right .633 347 35 5 27 3 .207 .294 .339
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Home/Away Batting Splits
Since 2022
 
 
+14%
OPS at Home
2024
No Stats
2023
 
 
+2%
OPS at Home
2022
 
 
+22%
OPS at Home
OPS PA R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
Since 2022Home .727 370 49 8 42 5 .238 .327 .400
Since 2022Away .635 373 34 5 27 3 .224 .306 .329
2024Home 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2024Away 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2023Home .657 140 18 3 16 2 .220 .307 .350
2023Away .643 115 9 2 11 1 .219 .330 .313
2022Home .771 230 31 5 26 3 .249 .339 .431
2022Away .631 258 25 3 16 2 .226 .295 .336
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Prospect Rankings History
Advanced Batting Stats
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Additional Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Batted Ball Stats
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Stats Vs Upcoming Pitchers
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Recent RotoWire Articles Featuring Dylan Carlson See More
NL FAAB Factor: Waiver Pickups of the Week
16 days ago
Jan Levine surveys the fallout from the opening week and provides his top recommendations.
NL FAAB Factor: Waiver Pickups of the Week
23 days ago
Jan Levine kicks off the column for 2024 and examines all the NL positional battles.
Spring Training Job Battles: NL Central
46 days ago
The NL Central is full of job battles as always this spring, though in a pleasant turn from most recent seasons, many of them feature exciting players like Chicago's Christopher Morel.
Breakout Breakdown: Isaac Paredes
91 days ago
Isaac Paredes clubbed 31 homers last year despite not making much hard contact overall. What should we make of him for 2024?
Collette Calls: Value in the Scrap Heap for 2024
138 days ago
Jason Collette highlights 10 hitters and 10 pitchers who have been nearly forgotten about in the first handful of 2024 drafts, including shortstop Tim Anderson.
Latest Fantasy Rumors
Can be had via trade
OFSt. Louis Cardinals
December 4, 2023
The Cardinals have let other teams know that Carlson is available via trade, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports.
ANALYSIS
Both Tyler O'Neill and Carlson, who is coming back from ankle surgery, have been squeezed out of the Cardinals' outfield picture and are on the trade block. Carlson has just a .680 OPS over the last two injury-shortened seasons, but he's still only 25 and under team control through 2026, so other clubs might view him as a buy-low opportunity.
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
2023
2022
2021
2020
Carlson's own manager was driving the hype train last spring, predicting big things for a player he envisioned as his leadoff man. That train went off the rails in a hurry as Carlson mostly struggled before landing on the injured list in May with a hamstring strain. A thumb sprain put him back on the shelf in September and the outfielder couldn't really get going in between. In the end, Carlson slashed .236/.316/.380 across 488 plate appearances. After popping 18 home runs in 2021, Carlson managed eight long balls last season to go along with five steals in seven attempts. If there's a silver lining it's that Carlson trimmed his strikeout rate five percentage points to 19.3%. Keep in mind too that Carlson is still only 24 years old and will be for the entirely of the 2023 season. While far too young to give up on, the switch hitter had dramatic platoon splits and the Cardinals may be forced dial back his playing time slightly if his struggles against lefties continue.
Many prospects cruising through Double A and Triple A when they're 20 years old are overmatched in the majors if they debut the next season. Such was the case for Carlson in 2020 before he picked things up down the stretch. Carlson's follow-up was much better as he demonstrated many of the skills earning him top prospect status. Specifically, Carlson improved his plate discipline by walking more and fanning less. His overall average exit velocity was only 29th percentile, but it was closer to league average on flyballs, supporting power. A low exit velocity on grounders combined with 73rd percentile sprint speed and a little good fortune yielded a .250 BABIP on groundballs, 11 points above average. It all added up to a 113 wRC+, impressive for a 22-year-old. Carlson has 25-15 upside, just temper expectations this season. Pay for moderate growth, likely from continued improvement with his plate discipline.
The best Cardinals hitting prospect since Oscar Taveras, Carlson was a spring training standout and would have spent the bulk of the year in the majors under normal circumstances. He eventually got the call in mid-August when the Cardinals resumed play following a team-wide COVID-19 outbreak. He struggled and was demoted in early September. While it's damning with faint praise, Carlson was the Cardinals' best hitter after getting recalled Sept. 18. Including three playoff games, he hit .288/.389/.533 over his final 54 PA. Strikeouts were still an issue over that stretch (27.8 K%), but he got a lot more patient (13.0 BB%) as he settled in against big-league pitching. He doesn't have eye-popping exit velocity readings or blazing speed (74th percentile), but the 22-year-old switch hitter projects to be good at every aspect of the game. He should open the year with a prime lineup spot and everyday role.
In just one season, Carlson went from an interesting sleeper in the Cardinals' system to a top-10 prospect in all of baseball, and he is now knocking on the door of the majors. He was the second-youngest player and second-best hitter (142 wRC+) in the Texas League, and his 10.8 BB% and 20.3 K% are marks we would expect from a player several years older. Carlson's 33.3 Oppo% and 25.9 LD% on that circuit were also elite marks and his above-average speed led to 18 steals on 25 attempts. The switch hitter posted the best statistics of his career in 18 games at Triple-A, but there was obviously a lot of noise in those numbers. Carlson has a chance to be a plus contributor in all five roto categories, but it's his high floor that makes him so appealing in dynasty and redraft leagues. Regardless of who the Cardinals open the year with in the outfield, Carlson should force the issue sometime in the first half.
More Fantasy News
Set to ramp up activities Monday
OFSt. Louis Cardinals
Shoulder
April 12, 2024
Cardinals manager Oli Marmol said Friday that Carlson (shoulder) will ramp up his rehab process Monday, John Denton of MLB.com reports.
ANALYSIS
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Still not cleared for activities
OFSt. Louis Cardinals
Shoulder
April 8, 2024
Carlson (shoulder) has yet to be cleared to begin baseball activities, Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat reports.
ANALYSIS
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Visiting team doctors
OFSt. Louis Cardinals
Shoulder
April 6, 2024
Carlson will have his left shoulder examined by team doctors Saturday, John Denton of MLB.com reports.
ANALYSIS
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Yet to resume baseball activities
OFSt. Louis Cardinals
Shoulder
April 1, 2024
Carlson (shoulder) is participating in strengthening exercises but has yet to be cleared for baseball activities, John Denton of MLB.com reports.
ANALYSIS
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Gets injection in shoulder
OFSt. Louis Cardinals
Shoulder
March 29, 2024
Carlson received a cortisone injection in his left shoulder Friday, Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat reports.
ANALYSIS
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