Pavin Smith
24-Year-Old First Baseman1B
Arizona Diamondbacks AA
2020 Fantasy Outlook
Smith's batting profile has been remarkably consistent year to year in his three professional seasons. His strikeout rate has ranged from 10.8% to 12.9% while his walk rate has ranged from 11.3% to 12.1%. He had 12 home runs in 507 plate appearances at Double-A after totaling 11 in 504 plate appearances at High-A in 2018. These plate skills are promising, but those power numbers are a problem, though the 2017 seventh-overall pick did at least show more gap power last year with 29 doubles and six triples, lifting his ISO nearly 40 points. If Smith is to become a major-league regular at first base, he will need more of those doubles and triples to clear the fences. We saw a massive spike in power across baseball in 2019 and many players who were not expected to hit for power did. Keep an eye out to see if more power shows up at Triple-A. It is the piece of the puzzle that will either make or break Smith. Read Past Outlooks
$Signed a contract with the Diamondbacks in June of 2017 that includes a $5.01 million signing bonus.
Joining big-league camp
1BArizona Diamondbacks  AA
January 21, 2020
Smith will join the Diamondbacks' big-league camp this spring.
ANALYSIS
Smith isn't likely to break camp with the team, but he's not far from pushing for a roster spot. He spent 2019 at Double-A Jackson, hitting .291/.370/.466.
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Recent RotoWire Articles Featuring Pavin Smith
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27 days ago
James Anderson breaks down all the prospects you need to know from the loaded farm systems of the NL West, including Dodgers second baseman and No. 2 overall prospect Gavin Lux.
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30 days ago
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363 days ago
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Farm Futures: First Base/DH Tiers
January 29, 2019
James Anderson looks over the top prospects at first base/DH and thinks Peter Alonso could make an early-season debut for the Mets.
Consensus Top 100 Prospect Rankings
March 27, 2018
James Anderson compiles the prospect rankings from five respected industry sources to produce a consensus top 100, which as expected features Ronald Acuna in the top spot.
Past Fantasy Outlooks
2019
2018
The 2017 seventh overall pick hit a mediocre .255/.343/.392 in 120 games for High-A Visalia, smacking 11 homers after failing to hit a single one in his first 51 professional games for Low-A Hillsboro the season prior. Smith demonstrated excellent control of the zone, walking 11.3% of the time while striking out in just 12.9% of his plate appearances. Players who have these kind of advanced plate skills sometimes tap into more power as they age, or they benefit from the bouncier big-league baseball. If the power never comes it will be hard for Smith to clear the very high offensive bar required for a major-league first baseman.
A college first baseman who received the eighth-highest bonus ($5.01 million) in the 2017 draft, Smith proved after signing that he is a unique offensive talent. He had more walks (27) than strikeouts (24) while finishing third in the Northwest League in average (.318) and OBP (.401) and fourth in wRC+ (136), yet he failed to hit a home run. Of the qualified hitters in that league, he was one of only seven players who failed to homer, which is concerning given his age (21) and position. It is hard to find recent precedent for a college first baseman failing to hit for power in his pro debut and going on to be a quality big-league first baseman. Smith's backers will point to his excellent hit tool -- perhaps the best in the entire 2017 draft -- and say that he will add power as he gets more comfortable against pro pitching. Unless he is going at a nice discount in dynasty drafts, it is probably wise to let someone else bet on the power showing up.
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Churns out three hits
1BArizona Diamondbacks  AA
August 13, 2018
Smith went 3-for-4 with a double and three RBI in High-A Visalia's 7-3 win over Modesto on Sunday.
ANALYSIS
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Hitting .216 for Visalia
1BArizona Diamondbacks  AA
June 2, 2018
Smith is slashing .216/.332/.359 with five home runs and two stolen bases across 196 plate appearances for High-A Visalia this season.
ANALYSIS
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Scuffling in Cal League
1BArizona Diamondbacks  AA
April 27, 2018
Smith went hitless across three at-bats for High-A Visalia in its 3-1 loss to Lancaster on Thursday. The first baseman is now slashing .171/.275/.329 with three home runs and two steals across 80 plate appearances this season.
ANALYSIS
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Opens in Cal League
1BArizona Diamondbacks  AA
April 6, 2018
Smith opened the year at High-A Visalia, going 0-for-4 with a walk, a run and a strikeout against Rancho Cucamonga.
ANALYSIS
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Connects on first professional homer
1BArizona Diamondbacks  AA
September 8, 2017
Smith went 1-for-4 with a home run and three RBI in a playoff game for short-season Hillsboro on Thursday.
ANALYSIS
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