Justin Upton
Justin Upton
32-Year-Old OutfielderOF
Los Angeles Angels
Out
Injury Knee
Est. Return 2/1/2020
2019 Fantasy Outlook
Though he’s swapped uniforms four times over the past five years, Upton has seen little change in his overall production. Over that stretch, he’s logged at least 600 plate appearances each season and has finished with no fewer than 25 home runs, 75 runs, 80 RBI and eight stolen bases. While Upton’s first full season in Anaheim saw him reach the lower end of most of those benchmarks, the underlying numbers suggested there’s been little degradation in his performance at the dish heading into his age-31 campaign. His walk and strikeout rates were roughly in line with his career marks, while his 43.8% hard-hit rate and 8.3% barrel rate both placed him in the top 30 among all qualified batters. Upton’s activity on the basepaths should gradually tail off now that he’s on the wrong side of 30, but another season of useful power production combined with a non-toxic batting average looks attainable. Read Past Outlooks
RANKSFrom Preseason
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$Signed a five-year, $106 million contract with the Angels in November of 2017.
On crutches for 2-3 weeks
OFLos Angeles Angels
Knee
September 21, 2019
Upton (knee) received a PRP injection Friday and will be on crutches for two or three weeks, Richard Justice of MLB.com reports.
ANALYSIS
The procedure is meant to promote healing in Upton's ailing right knee. The 32-year-old was diagnosed with patellar tendinitis last week and has been ruled out for the rest of the season. He should be at full strength when spring training opens in 2020.
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Batting Stats
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Batting Order Slot Breakdown
vs Right-Handed Pitchers
vs RHP
#1
#2
#3
#4
#5
#6
#7
#8
#9
6
30
1
2
vs Left-Handed Pitchers
vs LHP
#1
#2
#3
#4
#5
#6
#7
#8
#9
6
12
3
Left/Right Batting Splits
Since 2017
 
 
+5%
OPS vs RHP
2019
 
 
+49%
OPS vs RHP
2018
 
 
+48%
OPS vs RHP
2017
 
 
+39%
OPS vs LHP
OPS PA R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
Since 2017vs Left .802 365 54 19 60 4 .241 .329 .473
Since 2017vs Right .843 1139 160 58 174 19 .262 .350 .493
2019vs Left .541 79 12 2 12 0 .136 .253 .288
2019vs Right .804 177 22 10 28 1 .248 .333 .471
2018vs Left .593 143 15 5 17 1 .195 .273 .320
2018vs Right .875 470 65 25 68 7 .277 .366 .509
2017vs Left 1.155 143 27 12 31 3 .344 .427 .728
2017vs Right .828 492 73 23 78 11 .252 .341 .486
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Home/Away Batting Splits
Since 2017
 
 
+16%
OPS at Home
2019
 
 
+17%
OPS on Road
2018
 
 
+32%
OPS at Home
2017
 
 
+16%
OPS at Home
OPS PA R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
Since 2017Home .899 712 110 44 124 10 .271 .357 .542
Since 2017Away .774 792 104 33 110 13 .244 .335 .440
2019Home .663 121 17 5 15 1 .202 .298 .365
2019Away .779 135 17 7 25 0 .226 .319 .461
2018Home .919 299 43 22 57 3 .277 .351 .568
2018Away .698 314 37 8 28 5 .238 .338 .361
2017Home .974 292 50 17 52 6 .294 .387 .587
2017Away .840 343 50 18 57 8 .256 .338 .502
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Stat Review
How does Justin Upton compare to other hitters?
This section compares his stats with all batting seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 400 plate appearances)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity and Barrels/PA % are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 400 PA) and Hard Hit Rate is benchmarked against last season's data (min 400 PA). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • BB/K
    Walk to strikeout ratio
  • BB Rate
    The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a walk.
  • K Rate
    The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a strikeout.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many of a batter’s balls in play go for hits.
  • ISO
    Isolated Power. Slugging percentage minus batting average. A computation used to measure a batter's raw power.
  • AVG
    Batting average. Hits divided by at bats.
  • OBP
    On Base Percentage. A measure of how often a batters reaches base. Roughly equal to number of times on base divided by plate appearances.
  • SLG
    Slugging Percentage. A measure of the batting productivity of a hitter. It is calculated as total bases divided by at bats.
  • OPS
    On base plus slugging. THe sum of a batter's on-base percentage and slugging percentage.
  • wOBA
    Weighted on-base average. Measures a player's overall offensive contributions per plate appearance. wOBA combines all the different aspects of hitting into one metric, weighting each of them in proportion to their actual run value.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Hard Hit Rate
    A measure of contact quality from Sports Info Solutions. This stat explains what percentage of batted balls were hit hard vs. medium or soft.
  • Barrels/PA
    The percentage of plate appearances where a batter had a batted ball classified as a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
BB/K
0.41
 
BB Rate
12.5%
 
K Rate
30.5%
 
BABIP
.261
 
ISO
.201
 
AVG
.215
 
OBP
.309
 
SLG
.416
 
OPS
.724
 
wOBA
.318
 
Exit Velocity
87.2 mph
 
Hard Hit Rate
41.1%
 
Barrels/PA
6.3%
 
Advanced Batting Stats
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Additional Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Stats Vs Upcoming Pitchers
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Recent RotoWire Articles Featuring Justin Upton
MLB Barometer: Risers & Fallers
15 days ago
Erik Halterman looks at the season's biggest risers and fallers in his farewell column. Few players outperformed their ADP as much as Kansas City's Jorge Soler this year.
Yahoo DFS Baseball: Friday Picks
26 days ago
Mike Barner recommends a Yankees stack Friday against Toronto.
Regan's Rumblings: Prospect Stashes for Next Year
29 days ago
Dave Regan does a deep dive into prospects to keep an eye on in 2020, including Tampa Bay’s Wander Franco, who stands out with his incredibly advanced plate discipline at such a young age.
AL FAAB Factor: Waiver Pickups of the Week
31 days ago
Erik Siegrist looks over the remaining talent on AL waiver wires and thinks Rangers prospect Nick Solak can offer some useful production down the stretch even in the shallowest of formats.
Yahoo DFS Baseball: Friday Picks
33 days ago
Oakland's bats make for a fine stacking option Friday against Texas.
Past Fantasy Outlooks
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
There's little upside in drafting Upton at this point, but you know what you're getting. The 30-year-old has been extremely durable throughout his career, totaling at least 620 plate appearances in each of the last seven seasons, and the fluctuation in that time in terms of quality of performance has been marginal. His strikeout rate has been elevated over 28 percent in each of the past two seasons, and indeed the batting average seems destined to fall back (.341 BABIP, .244 xBA), but it shouldn't fall off a cliff as Upton has been hitting the ball harder and he boosted his walk rate back up to over 11 percent in 2017. The flyball rate has been stable, and he ran more after the move to Anaheim at the waiver trade deadline, which bodes well as he re-upped with the Angels on a five-year deal shortly after the season ended. Best of all, Upton is now batting behind Mike Trout in the order, so his third career 100-RBI season could be in the cards.
The 2016 campaign was a tale of two seasons for Upton. From April through July, he hit .239/.294/.405 with 13 homers, 50 runs and 46 RBI in just over 400 plate appearances. Upton then went on to hit .258/.341/.584 the rest of the season with 18 homers, 31 runs and 41 RBI in just over 200 plate appearances. Overall, it was Upton's best home-run total since 2011 and his numbers were mostly in line with where they have been in seasons past, save his on-base percentage. A career-low .310 OBP cut into his stolen-base opportunities and some of that was due to the early struggles as well as a career-worst walk rate of just eight percent. He turns 30 this year, so the power should stay while the steals may be gone. Upton needs to make more contact to get back to helping with average, otherwise, he's a decent three-category player with more name value than real value.
Upton went to his first All-Star game in four years as a move to San Diego hardly put a damper in his production. He hit 26 home runs to post his third-straight 25-homer season and came just one steal away from his third career 20-20 season. But Upton also reached 150 strikeouts for the third straight year, and his .251 batting average was a career low. Upton’s best season remains his 2011 campaign, when he hit a blistering .289/.369/.529 and mashed 31 home runs for the Diamondbacks. Between San Diego and Atlanta, Upton played in two of the most difficult parks for right-handed pull power hitters. He's stuck in another pitcher's park long-term after signing a six-year deal with Detroit in the offseason, but the talent around him is significantly better than it was at his last few stops, so the run and RBI totals could tick up.
Most owners didn't profit much from Upton's production in 2014, but they got their money's worth. He supplied 29 homers (.221 ISO), good enough for fourth in the NL, and drove in a career-high 101 runs while slightly improving his average and matching his stolen base total from 2013. The 27-year-old also set a less distinguished career high with 171 strikeouts (26.7% K%), matching his brother's number and joining him in the Braves' record books for most strikeouts in a single season. Upton walked less (9.4% BB% from 11.7%) and finished with a .169/.233/.325 batting line in September, but he's a proven fantasy commodity at this point and should garner significant interest on draft day yet again. His move to Petco Park after an offseason trade to the Padres figures to result in a downgrade in power production for Upton (17.9% HR/FB with Atlanta), but his presence in the middle an improved lineup should help his counting stats.
Upton's first month in a Braves uniform was the stuff of legends, as he clubbed a whopping 12 home runs in April and appeared to be headed for a career year. Over the next three months of the season, however, Upton managed just four home runs. He got hot again in August, and finished with a team-leading 27 big flies, but it was at times a frustrating season for his fantasy owners. After recording 18-plus steals in each of his previous four seasons, Upton attempted just nine steals in 2013, as manager Fredi Gonzalez played it safe on the basepaths, and his strikeout rate jumped dramatically from 19.3 percent to 25.0 percent. By no means was it a terrible year for Upton, but he didn't live up to his price tag, and his 17.9 percent HR/FB rate is likely unsustainable. Moreover, a rebound in batting average is not necessarily a lock, as his BABIP was still above .320.
When Upton injured his left thumb sliding into second base in April, most fantasy owners probably figured he would quickly recover from the seemingly minor ailment and promptly return to elite status. Instead, the injury seemed to bother him throughout the season, despite the fact that he was able play in 150 games. The .430 slugging percentage Upton delivered was the lowest of his four seasons in the big leagues, but he still managed to get on base at a good clip (.355) while picking up 18 steals. His numbers after the All-Star break (.817 OPS, 10 of his 17 homers) and more specifically, in September (.301/.354/.544 with six homers and four steals) suggest that he started to feel better as the season progressed. For the second straight offseason, trade rumors swirled around Upton, but he's still just 25 years old and the underlying skills here still suggest 30-homer and 20-steal potential with his return to health.
Upton put all of the pieces together and stayed healthy enough to play 159 games last season. The result was the breakout campaign many had tabbed Upton for following his age-21 season, as he delivered career-highs in every standard rotisserie category other than batting average. Further, Upton eased concerns about the shoulder injury that slowed him in 2010 with the heavy workload while showing considerable skills growth in the form of a 10 percent improvement in his contact rate (79 percent). Thanks to a fast-track path to the big leagues as a 19-year-old in 2007, Upton is now 24 with over 2,000 career at-bats. He slugged .561 after the All-Star break on the strength of 16 homers over 244 at-bats and if he's able to maintain that level of power over a full season, we could be looking at 40-plus homers in 2012.
Upton's health undoubtedly played a role in his regression last season, as he fell from 26 to 17 homers despite playing in just five fewer games than he did in 2009. New general manager Kevin Towers was willing to listen to trade offers for the young right fielder during the offseason, but nothing materialized. In addition to the lost power, Upton's contact rate dipped to 69 percent even though his walk rate improved to 11 percent. He opted for rehab during the offseason rather than surgery, so all signs point to 100 percent health at the start of spring training. Don't lose sight of the fact that Upton will still be just 23 when Opening Day rolls around in April, so there's still a great deal of growth potential even after he's racked up 1,517 career big league at-bats.
There were plenty of things that went wrong for the D-Backs in 2009, but Upton was one of the few bright spots last season as he produced at elite levels despite turning just 22 years old in August. After striking out in nearly one-third of his at-bats as a rookie, Upton significantly improved his contact rate from 66 to 74 percent while increasing his power output to swat 26 homers. Touted as a complete five-tool prospect upon being drafted first overall in 2005, Upton didn't disappoint, flashing good speed on the basepaths (20 steals) and checking in as one of the league's better defensive right fielders. He should only continue to get better, with the potential for more power and better overall production ahead if his selectivity at the plate continues to improve.
Considering that he spent most of his first full season in Arizona as a 20-year-old, we're willing to give Upton a pass for his inconsistent production. After an impressive start in April (.340/.385/.577, five homers and 15 RBI), Upton slumped badly before an oblique injury knocked him out of the lineup for most of July and August. Upton raked at Chase Field with a .321/.407/.632 line along with 12 homers and 32 RBI, but struggled tremendously on the road with a .169/.291/.271 line with three homers and 10 RBI. Overall, Upton demonstrated the ability to draw plenty of walks and get on base at a good clip (.353) despite struggling to make contact while adjusting to major league pitching. We'd also be surprised if he doesn't become more active on the basepaths in 2009, as he already boasts 20-steal speed and the D-Backs are expected to emphasize the running game. Don't be scared off by the disappointing overall numbers, as there's still a ton to like here as he continues to fulfill is potential.
Upton's teammate Orlando Hudson may have said it best when he nicknamed the 19-year-old phenom "The Franchise" and proceeded to say that Upton has 10 tools instead of the standard five. His numbers across High-A, Double-A and the majors last season are outstanding given his age, while the long-term upside here is simply: superstar. By all indications, he'll be the everyday right fielder and should be an immediate 20-20 threat, as a 20-year-old. Upton is an elite talent, so don't be shy about bidding the extra dollar or nabbing him a round early on draft day.
Upton is one of the 10 best prospects in the game, and already in the outfield, so he'll avoid some of the issues that have hampered his brother's development. He has superstar, Griffey-level talent, and if you're in a position to get him in keeper leagues, run, don't walk.
The Diamondbacks took Upton, a supremely talented five-tool player, with the first overall pick in the 2005 draft. Arizona will likely start Upton out at shortstop in a short-season league in 2006 before determining if he or Stephen Drew will change positions in the long term.
More Fantasy News
Out for season
OFLos Angeles Angels
Knee
September 13, 2019
Upton (knee) will not play again this season, Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic reports.
ANALYSIS
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Out again Friday
OFLos Angeles Angels
Knee
September 13, 2019
Upton (knee) isn't in the starting lineup for Friday's game against the Rays, Maria Torres of the Los Angeles Times reports.
ANALYSIS
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Battling knee issue
OFLos Angeles Angels
Knee
September 11, 2019
Upton underwent an MRI on his right knee Wednesday, Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic reports.
ANALYSIS
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Not in lineup
OFLos Angeles Angels
September 11, 2019
Upton is not starting Wednesday against Cleveland.
ANALYSIS
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Not starting Sunday
OFLos Angeles Angels
September 8, 2019
Upton is not in the lineup Sunday against the White Sox.
ANALYSIS
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