This article is part of our Category Strategy series.
Welcome to my first NBA player prop recommendations article on RotoWire. I'll be coming at you every Thursday for the remainder of the season with some of my favorites to target, so let's try to start things off strong during Thursday's six-game slate out of the All-Star break.
All odds via the FanDuel Sportsbook.
Joel Embiid, PHI vs. BKN: OVER 35.5 Points + Rebounds (-118)
Embiid has dealt with his share of injuries this season, which has limited him to 39 games. He is still dealing with a finger issue that previously forced him to miss a stretch of nine straight games, but the good news is that he will reportedly ditch the splint that he was wearing on his left hand in favor of tape for this game. When healthy, his ceiling is clearly through the roof when you combine his 32 percent usage rate with his ability to dominate the boards.
Embiid has been sidelined for each of the Sixers' previous three games against the Nets this season. That's a shame considering he torched them across four games last season, averaging 30 points, 14.3 rebounds and five assists. The Nets have still struggled to slow down opposing big men despite the addition of DeAndre Jordan to back up Jarrett Allen, so I'll take a chance on Embiid hitting the over on this combined number.
Miles Bridges, CHA at CHI: OVER 14.5 Points (-122)
The Hornets didn't have much quality depth heading into the season, so it was expected that Bridges would receive a significant boost in playing time. He's done just that, jumping from his average of 21 minutes a game during his rookie campaign to 31 minutes a night this season. His numbers might not be great given that significant increase in playing time, but he's still averaged a respectable 13 points and 5.5 rebounds.
The key with regards to this prop is that Bridges has seen his playing time increase even more recently. Part of that has to do with the Hornets buying out a couple of their veterans, but it's also been because they need to continue to build up Bridges to be an important part of their future. As a result, he's logged at least 33 minutes in seven straight games. That enabled him to score at least 16 points in each contest and he even topped 20 points five times. With the Bulls missing most of their best defensive players because of injuries, the over for Bridges is very appealing.
Devonte' Graham, CHA at CHI: OVER 7.5 Assists (-134)
Graham has been one of the biggest pleasant surprises across the league. While all the news surrounding the Hornets entering the season surrounded around their addition of Terry Rozier, Graham has emerged to be arguably their best player. He is no stranger to jacking up shots from behind the arc and is a good passer, which has enabled him to average 18.1 points, 3.6 rebounds, 7.8 assists and 3.5 three-pointers a game.
Graham entered the break having dished out at least eight assists in four straight games, three of which he registered at least 10 assists. Playing time is never a problem for him since he's averaging 35 minutes a night. He's already had plenty of success against the Bulls this season in terms of assists, generating at least eight of them in two of their previous three meetings. The one time he failed to reach that threshold, he just missed with seven assists. Continuing to focus on the fact that the Bulls are missing the majority of their best defensive players, Graham has the potential to once again be very productive in the assists department.
Duncan Robinson, MIA at ATL: OVER 3.5 Made Three-Pointers (-128)
As good as Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo have been for the Heat, they would not currently be occupying the fourth seed in the Eastern Conference without the success of some of their supporting cast. A key part of that secondary group has been Robinson. He quickly worked his way into the starting five and is averaging 29 minutes a night. With Tyler Herro (foot) still not ready to return, Robinson's playing time should be further cemented for this matchup with the Hawks.
Robinson's strength is his ability to shoot from behind the arc. Not only is he averaging 3.5 three-pointers a game, but he's shooting 43.8 percent from deep. He's been especially dialed in lately, draining at least five triples in four straight games. The last time he took the floor against the Hawks, he made a whopping 10 of his 14 three-point attempts. The Hawks have played at the seventh-fastest pace and have allowed the 12th-highest three-point shooting percentage in the league, so I'll take the over here with Robinson.