One Big Fantasy Question for All 30 Teams: Northwest Division

As maybe you've noticed, we're answering One Big Fantasy Question for every NBA squad.  This is our Northwest Division break down.  Here are links to our Atlantic, Central, Southeast and Southwest editions.  The season starts in three days, so let's dive in!

Denver Nuggets

Clearly this is Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray's team.  But Michael Porter is poised to break out in his second year of Association play. In fact…

Could Michael Porter have more fantasy value than Jamal Murray?

This is not a farfetched question. The RotoWire Projections have Murray ranked #48 in 8-category leagues and Porter at #54. With Jerami Grant now in Detroit, Porter should make the leap from 16.4 minutes per game last season to roughly 30 minutes a game in 2020-21. Plus one would assume more minutes with the starters means more sweet assists to Porter from the Joker. Porter shot 45% last year on catch and shoot attempts, good for 25th in the NBA (minimum 20 C&S FGA). That means he should be a fantastic fit in this starting rotation. The other starters haven't changed for Denver:  Paul Millsap is still at power forward and Gary Harris returns at shooting guard. Grant averaged a modest 8.9 field goal attempts last season. For Porter to reach #54 value, he'll need over 13 shots per game.  Some of those probably come from aging Millsap, whose shot attempts have been on a four year negative slide (only 8.6 FGA/gm last year).

Also, Porter's move to the starting five and Grant's move to the Pistons leaves a surprisingly thin Denver bench. Will Barton missed the playoffs last year due to knee problems, putting his total minutes in 2020-21 at risk. Porter and his young legs may be expected to also lead the second unit as its top scorer.

But while we're heaping praise on Porter, remember that Murray, after four NBA seasons, is still entering only his age-23 season. Upside still remains for Murray. For instance, maybe he improves his 4.8 assists per season. And he could certainly top his career-high of 18.5 points per game from last year.

While Porter has a ton of upside for this upcoming season, Murray is the safe bet to also improve and have more value than Porter.

Minnesota Timberwolves

Is it just me, or does there seem to be very little hype for first overall draft pick Anthony Edwards?  Edwards shot only 40.2 percent during his lone year at Georgia. That does not display the catch-and-shoot qualification you'd like to see with D'Angelo Russell and Karl-Anthony Towns as fellow starters. Let's take a deeper look at the star point guard.

Can Russell return to his 2018-19 All-Star form?

In his last season with Brooklyn, Russell posted 21.1 points, 7.0 dimes, 3.9 boards, 2.9 triples and 1.2 swipes per game in 81 regular season contests. But this year with the T-Wolves, he's got veteran Ricky Rubio as his backcourt mate. That might make it tough reach five assists per game, though Rubio should also hand Russell some easy buckets. Russell's points per game oddly went down last year when he was traded from Golden State to Minnesota, from 23.1 with GS to 21.7 with the T-Wolves. But he played in only 12 games with Minnesota, so let's ignore the small sample size.

KAT will and should get his shots, but the other starters will certainly differ to Russell.  Rubio attempted only 10.6 shots last year, continuing a three year trend. Edwards, like most rookies this year, can't be expected to do much and needs to learn NBA rotational defense. And power forward Juancho Hernangomez has never taken more than 5.1 shots per game in his four year career.

The fear with Russell is field goal percentage. He's a career 41.2 percent shooter over five seasons. The guard peaked at 43.0 percent in 2018-19. Presumably a KAT-Russell focused offense could create more easy shots for Russell to return to that accuracy level. In Phoenix last year, Devin Booker shot a career-high 48.9 percent with Rubio by his side. That speaks well for Russell nearing the mid-40's from the field. Finally, Russell's turnovers should also go down with the Spaniard handling the rock. The West is stacked with top tier point guards, so an ASG is unlikely, but I expect Russell to return to his 2018-19 form and maybe even do better.

Bonus questions: Karl-Anthony Towns has had a tragic off-season.  Will it affect his play?

Oklahoma City Thunder

Yeah, you could say a few things have changed in OKC.  Can you name a starter other than Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Al Horford?  Right now we suspect the three other starters will be Hamidou Diallo, Luguentz Dort and Darius Bazley. SGA is clearly a fantastic building block for the Thunder. But what about Big Al?

Will Big Al Horford have a nice bounce-back year?

Horford is 34 years old and coming off his worst season since his rookie year of 2007-08.  But all is not bad. With OKC, he no longer has to share the key with Joel Embiid or, frankly, any other proven NBA rebounders. Horford posted 11.9 points, 6.8 boards, 4.0 assists and 0.9 blocks over 30.2 minutes per game last year while awkwardly joining a Sixer squad in desperate need of spacing. But check out Big Al's numbers the prior three years with Boston: 13.5 points, 7.0 rebounds, 4.6 assists, 1.2 blocks and 1.2 three-pointers per game. Those numbers seem awfully attainable for a Thunder line-up in dire need of scoring options. Expect Horford to return to his home at the elbow, dishing dimes to cutters, setting picks for SGA and playing a very prominent role in the offense. Horford should shift from the fourth option in Philly to option number two in OKC.

But that may only last until the trade deadline, which has been pushed back to March 25th.  If GM Sam Presti can work more magic and move Horford's big contract (three years remaining at roughly $27 million per year) for any future assets, he'll do it. Rebuilding squads don't need 34-year-olds.  My advice is to grab Horford on the cheap on draft day, let him blossom for two-to-three weeks, then deal him for assets than can help you down the line. One must assume that Horford would come off the bench for any playoff contender that adds him to their roster. And then his output will reflect his days in Philly.

Portland Trail Blazers

It sure seems odd to think of Carmelo Anthony coming off the bench, but that seems to be his 2020-21 role for the Trail Blazers after starting in 58 regular season games for Portland last year. The word is the Trail Blazers want to start Robert Covington and Derrick Jones at the forward spots.  Watching Anthony play defense last year, I understand the move. I shouldn't let 'Melo's marquee-worthy name distract me. The big question for Portland is…

Will Jusuf Nurkic return to his 2018-19 form?

Nurkic ranked 10th among centers for fantasy points per game in 2018-19 via 15.6 points, 10.4 rebounds, 3.2 dimes, 1.0 steals and 1.4 blocks per contest. The Bosnian Beast was a force, but then only appeared in eight games in 2019-20 due to an ugly leg injury. That lengthy absence led to many fantasy ballers forgetting his stellar 2018-19 play. Nurkic did return to play during the Orlando bubble and quickly returned to his 2018-19 form. In eight bubble games, The Beast averaged 17.6 points, 10.3 boards, 4.0 assists, 2.0 blocks and 1.4 steals per contest.  He was awesome.

During Portland's off-season, the team didn't make any moves that should alter Nurkic's path to similar numbers in 2020-21. They've moved Carmelo Anthony to the bench and expect Robert Covington to start at the four until Zach Collins gets healthy.  Covington is a quality player, but will leave plenty of room in the paint for Nurkic.  Collins is expected to return in late January. He may occasionally spell Nurkic for a quick rest, but I doubt Collins significantly eats into Nurkic's minutes or shots. Collins still has a lot to prove.

Let's cut to the chase.  I bet Nurkic finishes the 2020-21 as a Top Ten fantasy center.

Utah Jazz

The Jazz changed very little over the off-season. They brought back Derrick Favors to be their back-up center. And they hope Bojan Bogdanovic, who suffered a wrist injury in March that forced him to miss the playoffs, can return to form. With no big changes, let's focus on their star.

Will Donovan Mitchell crack the Top 15?

Last season, Mitchell ranked 23rd in total fantasy points. But he tied for 41st (with Chris Paul) for fantasy points per game. As a 24-year-old entering his fourth NBA season, there is certainly room in Mitchell's career arc for improvement. From the 2018-19 to 2019-20 season, Mitchell posted a slight up-tick in almost every offensive category, but his defensive stats suffered. His stellar 1.4 steals per game in 2018-19 dropped to 1.0 last season. Blocks also decreased from 0.4 to 0.2.

There is a lot to like about Mitchell.  He missed only a handful of games over his three years in the Association. Mitchell is hands down Utah's top scoring option. And he just signed a five-year max contract, so there's no reason for him to sulk (see Harden, James). Utah's lack of off-season moves has the Jazz looking at Mitchell Growth as their top reason for optimism.  That all said, while Mitchell might make a few incremental improvements, he probably only hits the Top 15 if injuries and COVID issues strike the NBA's elite players.

That's it for our look at the NORTHWEST.  Here are the "One Big Question" articles for the other divisions:

·         ATLANTIC

·         CENTRAL

·         SOUTHEAST

·         SOUTHWEST