This article is part of our NBA Draft Kit series.
We're days away from the start of the season. As maybe you've noticed, we're answering One Big Fantasy Question for every NBA squad. This is our Pacific Division break down. Here are links to our Atlantic, Central, Southeast, Southwest and Northwest editions.
Golden State Warriors
Well, things can only get better in Golden State. Everyone suspected they'd struggle in 2019-20, but no one picked only 15 wins. What happened to their outspoken defensive leader?
Will Draymond Green's game continue to decline?
How much worse can it get? With injuries to Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson, there seemed to be plenty of room for Draymond Green to step up. Instead, the opposite happened. Last year, Green shot a difficult-to-watch 38.9 percent from the floor, his lowest mark since his 2012-13 rookie season. He grabbed only 6.2 rebounds per game, his worst average since 2013-14. Green blocked 0.8 shots per contest, also his lowest average since his rookie season.
It was so bad that Green ranked 146th overall last year in 8-category, 12-team leagues. 146th. That is also his worst ranking since his rookie season. Green's name value is still demanding a 2020-21 ADP in the low 60s. That's insanity. Green is an "old" 30 years old, having played 123 career playoff games. His field goal shooting has been on a three year decline. He's a power forward/center, yet he's only shot better than 45.5 percent once in his eight year career. The time for Green to improve his
We're days away from the start of the season. As maybe you've noticed, we're answering One Big Fantasy Question for every NBA squad. This is our Pacific Division break down. Here are links to our Atlantic, Central, Southeast, Southwest and Northwest editions.
Golden State Warriors
Well, things can only get better in Golden State. Everyone suspected they'd struggle in 2019-20, but no one picked only 15 wins. What happened to their outspoken defensive leader?
Will Draymond Green's game continue to decline?
How much worse can it get? With injuries to Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson, there seemed to be plenty of room for Draymond Green to step up. Instead, the opposite happened. Last year, Green shot a difficult-to-watch 38.9 percent from the floor, his lowest mark since his 2012-13 rookie season. He grabbed only 6.2 rebounds per game, his worst average since 2013-14. Green blocked 0.8 shots per contest, also his lowest average since his rookie season.
It was so bad that Green ranked 146th overall last year in 8-category, 12-team leagues. 146th. That is also his worst ranking since his rookie season. Green's name value is still demanding a 2020-21 ADP in the low 60s. That's insanity. Green is an "old" 30 years old, having played 123 career playoff games. His field goal shooting has been on a three year decline. He's a power forward/center, yet he's only shot better than 45.5 percent once in his eight year career. The time for Green to improve his game was last year. It didn't happen. Avoid him like the plague.
Los Angeles Clippers
The Clippers decided to double down on their current star situation by handing Paul George a four-year max contract through 2023-24. While I'd love to know what sort of load management the Clippers will enact for their two stars, I can't provide much insight on that topic. I am worried about both of their game counts. Missed games are a bigger issue in a condensed season.
After Paul George and Kawhi Leonard, which Clippers will be productive fantasy options?
In 9-category leagues, no Clipper cracks the Top 100 in our rankings other than George and Leonard. Center Serge Ibaka comes closest at #110. The Clippers gave Ibaka a two-year, $19 million contract, so it's assumed he'll bump last year's starter, Ivica Zubac to bench duty. That sounds good, but Ibaka is running on 31-year-old legs. He hasn't played 30 minutes per game since 2016-17. And, unfortunately, his free throw percentage is on a four-year decline (71.8 percent last year).
Of course, the center scarcity issue helps Ibaka's value. We project 28.4 minutes a game for Ibaka, but I'm not sure the veteran can handle that heavy of a workload. Competing with Ibaka in this race is another old veteran, 34-year-old chicken wing aficionado Lou Williams. RW ranks him #138 overall. Williams is going to get his shots in his "instant offense" role of the bench. He's a safe, late-round pick but has limited upside.
The hard part here is finding a Clipper within real upside. Marcus Morris returns after playing 19 games for the Clippers last year. But his numbers took a step back after staring for a terrible Knicks squad at the beginning of last year. There are just are not that many shots to go around after Leonard, George and Williams. But maybe Morris picks up the slack from Montrezl Harrell, who left for the Lakers. Harrell scored 18.6 points on 12.9 shots per game. Some of that goes to Ibaka, but Morris has always been greedy about taking shots. He's my pick for most likely to be the Clippers' third best fantasy player, unless you really need help at center.
Los Angeles Lakers
I'd love to know how many games LeBron James and Anthony Davis will actually play. The Lakers would be crazy to really push their two stars in the regular season, right?
What are the chances LeBron James or Anthony Davis play in 90% of the Lakers' regular season games?
Admittedly, it's hard to poke holes in this juggernaut. And the Lakers have only improved this off-season. Anthony Davis has a history of injuries, but he's still averaged 66 games per season -- not bad, not great. With all his injury news, I expected worse. RotoWire projects Davis to play 64 of 72 games this year (89%).
James has 17 NBA seasons (17!) under his belt and 260 career playoff games. That's another three-plus seasons. He's averaged 71 regular season games played over the past five years. (BTW, fantasy wise, getting 10+ assists from a forward is awfully tempting). RW has James projected at 60 games (83%) this season, which seems about right. Why push your 35-year-old superstar? At 60 games, James is still a tempting pick in the latter half of the first-round.
Will both stars play in 90% of the Lakers games? Probably not. But if everyone is getting rest during this rather packed schedule, the occasional rest for James and Davis should be less of an issue, when compared to other top stars. Draft both with confidence.
Phoenix Suns
The Chris Paul trade was an aggressive move. Paul is 35 years old, so this is a short-term move. But everything the Suns do should be focused on keeping Devin Booker in Phoenix. This move should help, even if Booker had his best ever field goal percentage with Ricky Rubio as his point guard. This organization is clearly tired of waiting to make the playoffs, and you really should trust head coach Monty Williams. But when it comes to fantasy questions, I'm looking at the center position:
Can Deandre Ayton put together a top-20 fantasy season?
Ayton, the number one overall pick in the 2018 NBA Draft, has had two good-not-great seasons for the Suns. He missed 25 games last year due to a suspension for breaking the NBA's Anti-Drug rules. The big man should continue to rack-up rebounds (11.5 REB/G last year) as Phoenix lacks a true power-forward beyond reserve Dario Saric. The young center probably won't face competition for minutes from rookie center Jalen Smith, though Smith does provide some nice insurance should Ayton suffer any injuries. Playing time, assuming he stays healthy and clean, is not the problem.
The bigger fantasy issue for Ayton is he doesn't shoot threes. Of course, five to 10 years ago, no one expected three-pointers from their fantasy center. Now it's almost a requirement. Ayton attempted 13 threes in 38 games last season at just 23.1 percent accuracy. Let Booker shoot those instead. In four pre-season games, Ayton attempted only two three-pointers. So while it may eventually become part of his game, don't expect Ayton to turn into Karl-Anthony Towns overnight. Ayton's modest 1.9 assists per game don't help either.
Ayton is currently ranked at #43 for 8-category, 2-center, 12-team leagues. He's behind centers Kristaps Porzingis (2.7 triples/game) and Bam Adebayo (also no threes, but but bank on five-plus assists/game). RotoWire has Ayton a hair ahead of Jusuf Nurkic, mostly due to the discrepancy in field goal percentage. Frankly, with Ayton's ADP in the mid-20's and Nurkic's ADP in the lower 40's, I'd rather target the Blazers' big man.
So while I hate to sound negative (I actually roster Ayton in the RW Keeper League), the answer is No -- I don't think Ayton finishes the year in the top 20.
Sacramento Kings
The RotoWire intelligentsia suffered pangs of frustration on draft night as Tyrese Haliburton slid down the draft board until the Kings grabbed him with the 12th pick. I know our own Nick Whalen is high on Haliburton, but...
Will Tyrese Haliburton crack Top 100 value this year?
On the one hand, Haliburton will come off the bench to begin the year with veterans De'Aaron Fox, Buddy Hield and Harrison Barnes penciled in as starters. On the other hand, last year Bogdan Bogdanovic averaged 26.5 fantasy points per game coming off the bench for Sacramento, which nearly pushed him inside the top 100. Of course, Bogdanovic did that in his third NBA season. He was just outside the Top 160 as a rookie in 2017-18.
While Haliburton won't start, he should still see plenty of opportunity. For one, Luke Walton is in a constant state of flux when it comes to Buddy Hield's role. And beyond Hield and Fox, the Kings' guard depth is among the shallowest in the league. Sacramento would be wise to go with a lot of three guard lineups. Barnes, who seemingly has been around forever, is only 28 years old and has averaged 76.5 games per season over 8 years. So it's unlikely a Barnes injury opens the door for Haliburton.
Haliburton is a high-upside rookie for the Kings, who at 6-foot-5 could wind up being their versatile, combo guard of the future. But we should temper expectations in the short term. I think he'll have a fine rookie season, but I don't think he'll crack the top 100.
That's it for our look at the Northwest!
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