FanDuel NBA: Friday Value Plays

FanDuel NBA: Friday Value Plays

This article is part of our FanDuel NBA series.

The NBA turns the calendar to 2021 with plenty of action and big names on the floor in a 10-game Friday night slate. We have such notable names as Trae Young, Kyrie Irving, Kevin Durant, Anthony Davis, Stephen Curry and Giannis Antetokounmpo taking the court, along with some eye-catching matchups in the form of a Hawks-Nets rematch, an old-fashioned Western Conference showdown between the Trail Blazers and Warriors and an interconference battle between a pair of last year's contenders in the Heat and Mavericks.

Oddsmakers are notably expecting plenty of points – music to our ears, DFS-wise – with no fewer than four games projected to finish with totals greater than 230 points and seven in all carrying totals over 220 points.

With plenty of injury news, value plays and other developments to break down, let's dive into Friday's 10-game slate!

Slate Overview

Here's a further look at the three games with the highest projected totals on Friday's slate:

Atlanta Hawks at Brooklyn Nets (Projected total: 244.5 points) 

These squads lit up the scoreboard for a whopping 286 points two games ago. And with a night to catch their breath, they'll retake the floor Friday for what could be another similarly entertaining battle. Each ranks in the top-10 in pace and offers an impressive collection of scorers, even when factoring in Spencer Dinwiddie's recent season-ending partial ACL tear. Given the expected game environment, the higher-end superstars on either side are certainly worthy of consideration for cash or tournaments, and there are also ways to round out rosters with complementary pieces from this game such as Caris LeVert, Joe Harris, John Collins, Cam Reddish and Bogdan Bogdanovic. 

Portland Trail Blazers at Golden State Warriors (Projected total: 235.0 points): 

With the help of a little mercy from the schedule after a very difficult first two contests against the Nets and Bucks, the Warriors have begun bouncing back and have evened their record at 2-2. They also will receive further reinforcement as Draymond Green is set to return tonight from his season-opening foot injury. The Trail Blazers have all their key players at full health and are getting some excellent support from second-unit assets such as Gary Trent (who is questionable Friday, as detailed below), Enes Kanter and Carmelo Anthony. Oddsmakers clearly expect this game to evolve into a bit of a shootout, and Golden State's league-high pace of 112.8 possessions per game could certainly help in that regard.

Chicago Bulls at Milwaukee Bucks (Projected total: 234.5 points): 

The Bulls are playing the league's second-fastest pace right behind the Warriors by averaging 111.6 possessions per game. The Bucks are actually just outside the top-10 themselves at 106.3, and they're also No. 2 in points per game at 124.2, behind only Atlanta. What's also eye-opening here is Chicago has put up 117.2 per game despite some injuries, making this an intriguing matchup where the Bucks could have more of a fight on their hands than anticipated. Therefore, the multiple ultra-talented offensive players on either side – Giannis Antetokounmpo, Khris Middleton, Zach LaVine and Jrue Holiday among them – could all thrive in the expected game environment.

OTHER ELEVATED PROJECED TOTALS TO NOTE: Washington Wizards at Minnesota Timberwolves (233.5 points)/Los Angeles Lakers at San Antonio Spurs (230.0 points)

Injury Situations to Monitor

NOTE: Injury reporting is especially fluid in the NBA, where the status of multiple players can change during the course of a day. Therefore, although the following serves as a foundation for the latest injury report as of the time the article is written, check back throughout the course of the day with RotoWire for the latest news regarding the status of all players on that night's slate. 

Key Injuries: 

LeBron James, LAL (ankle)/ Status: QUESTIONABLE 

James has been able to play through his sprained left ankle so far, and his status will likely become clearer after early shootaround. Anthony Davis would see his usage skyrocket were his teammate to miss Friday's contest. 

Russell Westbrook, WAS (rest)/ Status: DOUBTFUL

Westbrook is fully expected to sit out the second game of a back-to-back set, which should lead to a major usage boost for the likes of Bradley Beal, Rui Hachimura and Thomas Bryant. 

Karl-Anthony Towns, MIN (wrist)/ Status: OUT 

Towns' wrist dislocation has him on week-to-week status for the time being and definitely sidelines him for Friday's contest. Naz Reid should draw another start at center, while the usage of the remaining members of Minnesota' starting five should also rise.

Trae Young, ATL (calf)/ Status: PROBABLE 

Young isn't thought to be in danger of missing what's projected to be high-scoring rematch with the Nets.

Jimmy Butler, MIA (ankle)/ Status: PROBABLE 

Butler's expected return from a two-game absence projects to send Avery Bradley back to the bench and will lead to a hit for the usage of Butler's other first-unit teammates. 

LaMarcus Aldridge, SAN (knee)/ Status: QUESTIONABLE 

Aldridge could miss a second straight game, which would mean a bump in usage for Dejounte Murray and DeMar DeRozan with extra work down low for Jakob Poeltl. 

Jamal Murray, DEN (elbow)/ Status: QUESTIONABLE

The Nuggets remain hopeful Murray can return Friday after a one-game absence, but Monte Morris would step into the starting lineup again if the star point guard will be out a second straight contest.

Blake Griffin, DET (concussion)/ Status: OUT 

Griffin's ongoing absence projects to continue affording the likes of Derrick Rose, Josh Jackson and Jerami Grant plenty of extra usage.

Draymond Green, GSW (foot)/ Status: PROBABLE 

Green's expected season debut will give the Warriors a key physical presence down low, although his minutes load in his first game back remains to be seen. 

Michael Porter, DEN (COVID-19)/ Status: OUT 

Porter's confirmed absence should lead to a start at small forward for Will Barton. 

De'Andre Hunter, ATL (knee)/ Status: QUESTIONABLE 

If Hunter is unable to play, Kevin Huerter or Cam Reddish could draw the start at small forward in his stead. 

Danilo Gallinari, ATL (ankle)/ Status: OUT 

Gallinari's absence behind John Collins at the four could lead to some extra minutes off the bench for fellow veteran Solomon Hill.

Kelly Olynyk, MIA (ankle)/ Status: PROBABLE 

Olynyk's expected availability would be pivotal, considering the big man is coming off his best game of the season against the Bucks while playing a key role in the frontcourt rotation.

Maxi Kleber, DAL (ankle)/ Status: QUESTIONABLE 

If Kleber is unable to go Friday, James Johnson would likely see some extra run off the bench at power forward behind Dorian Finney-Smith. 

Lauri Markkanen, CHI (calf/COVID-19)/ Status: OUT 

Markkanen's second straight absence should afford Otto Porter - who posted a 28-point, 12-rebound double-double in Markkanen's stead Thursday - another starting opportunity.

Marcus Morris, LAC (knee)/ Status: OUT 

Morris's ongoing absence will continue to afford Nicolas Batum a starting opportunity.

Gary Trent, POR (calf)/ Status: QUESTIONABLE 

Trent has been an integral part of the Blazers' second unit. If he misses a second straight game Friday, Rodney Hood and Anfernee Simons would likely be the biggest beneficiaries.

Josh Okogie, MIN (hamstring)/ Status: OUT 

Okogie's projected absence would likely give Jarrett Culver a chance to start at small forward.

Other injuries of note:

Killian Hayes, DET (ankle)/ Status: QUESTIONABLE 

Grayson Allen, MEM (ankle)/ Status: DOUBTFUL

Tomas Satoransky, CHI (COVID-19)/ Status: OUT 

Alex Caruso, LAL (hand)/ Status: OUT

Chandler Hutchison, CHI (COVID-19)/ Status: OUT

Javonte Green, BOS (COVID-19)/ Status: OUT 

De'Anthony Melton, MEM (COVID-19)/ Status: OUT 

Rajon Rondo, ATL (knee)/ Status: OUT 

Tony Snell, ATL (foot)/ Status: OUT 

Onyeka Okongwu, ATL (toe)/ Status: OUT 

Ryan Arcidiacono, CHI (COVID-19)/ Status: OUT 

Eric Paschall, GSW (knee)/ Status: QUESTIONABLE 

Nassir Little, POR (COVID-19)/ Status: OUT 

JaMychal Green, DEN (calf)/ Status: PROBABLE 

Jahlil Okafor, DET (ankle)/ Status: PROBABLE 

Torrey Craig, MIL (nose)/ Status: OUT 

Jaylen Nowell, MIN (calf)/ Status: OUT 

Xavier Tillman, MEM (kneecap)/ Status: OUT 

Jontay Porter, MEM (knee)/ Status: OUT 

Abdel Nader, PHO (concussion) /Status: OUT 

Jalen Smith, PHO (ankle)/ Status: OUT

NOTABLE LONGER-TERM INJURIES: Ja Morant, MEM (ankle); Kristaps Porzingis, DAL (knee); Kevin Love, CLE (calf); Kemba Walker, BOS (knee); Jaren Jackson, MEM (knee); Cody Zeller, CHA (hand); Justise Winslow, MEM (hip): Kris Dunn, ATL (knee); Nicholas Claxton, BKN (knee); Zach Collins, POR (ankle); Romeo Langford, BOS (wrist) 

Elite Players

There's no shortage of star power hitting the floor to kick off the new calendar year, even with a fairly hefty injury report factored in. Seven players are sporting five-figure salaries on Friday's slate, with Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,400), Luka Doncic ($11,300); Russell Westbrook ($11,200); Anthony Davis ($10,500); LeBron James ($10,400); Karl-Anthony Towns ($10,200) and Nikola Jokic ($10,200) all fitting the bill. The "asterisks" in that group are Westbrook due to his likelihood of sitting out for load management purposes, James due to his questionable status and Towns due to the wrist injury that will continue to keep him sidelined.

Of the remaining healthy top-shelf players, Antetokounmpo, Doncic and Jokic should all see their usual elevated usage rates. And although Milwaukee is in a potential blowout scenario against the Bulls, it's worth noting the Bucks took an outright loss in what appeared to be a similar set-up a few games back against the Knicks.

There's also plenty of potential for elite production from a number of four-figure-salaried players, beginning with Stephen Curry ($9,900) and continuing with Kawhi Leonard ($9,800), Trae Young ($9,700), Bradley Beal ($9,500), Jayson Tatum ($9,500), Kevin Durant ($9,400), Kyrie Irving ($9,300) and Damian Lillard ($9,300). Of the group, it's worth noting all but Leonard and Tatum are involved in contests with projected totals well over 230.0 points, arguably making those players even more appealing than usual.

Expected Chalk

All of the names mentioned in Elite Players section are naturally going to be very popular Friday, although there should be a lot of variety in lineups with 20 teams taking the floor. With some key confirmed or very likely absences in the form of Kevin Love, Russell Westbrook, Karl-Anthony Towns and Ja Morant, there certainly could be higher rostering rates for both the direct replacements for those players and some of their fellow first-unit members. And if LeBron James were unable to play through his ankle issue, Anthony Davis would particularly see his already robust popularity reach even greater heights.

Additionally, there could also be plenty of popular value plays, several which will be covered in the following section.

Key Values

Thomas Bryant, WAS at MIN ($5,800) 

As mentioned earlier, Russell Westbrook is very likely to sit out Friday's second game of a back-to-back set and that should help thrust Bryant into a slightly more expansive offensive role. The young big scored 36.9 FD points in the one prior game Westbrook already sat out this season, and he's actually coming off his best effort of the campaign thus far after posting 42.6 FD points Thursday against the Bulls. The 23-year-old has already been more active on the offensive end in the early going than prior seasons, averaging a career-best 17.2 points on 61.0 percent shooting - including an outstanding 46.7 percent from three-point range. The T-Wolves will also once again be without Karl-Anthony Towns down low and already allow the highest offensive efficiency rating (42.3) to centers, including the highest overall shooting percentage (66.2) and three-point percentage (50.0) to the position.

Bogdan Bogdanovic, ATL at BKN ($5,400) 

Bogdanovic has proven to be worthy of his eventful offseason acquisition by averaging 15.3 points - partly on 42.9 percent shooting from three-point range - 6.3 rebounds and 2.5 assists across 29.0 minutes over his first four outings. His style of play is an excellent fit within the Hawks' fast-paced system and he's been rewarding in a DFS sense with FD-point tallies between 22.8 and 31.5 points so far. Bogdanovic has been over 30 in each of his last two, including a 31.3 FD-point effort versus this same Nets' team Wednesday night. With another fast-paced and projected high-scoring game on tap, he once again stands as an excellent chance to outpace his very reasonable salary.

Josh Jackson, DET vs. BOS ($4,800)

Jackson will continue in the starting lineup Friday with Blake Griffin (concussion) remaining out of action, making him one of the best potential fantasy-point-per-dollar values of the night at his salary. The former fourth overall pick has eclipsed 30 FD points in three of his first four games on the strength of career-best marks of 17.3 points, 6.0 rebounds and 50.9 percent shooting. Jackson is also averaging a steal per game in the early going, while the 26.3 minutes per contest he's logging are obviously allowing him to offer very strong returns on his current salary. The Celtics also check in the bottom-10 in offensive efficiency rating surrendered to PFs (27.8), a figure that's partly the byproduct of Boston giving up the third-most points (27.2) and most assists to the position (6.6) over its first five games.

Other value plays to consider: Mikal Bridges, PHO at DEN ($5,900); Derrick Rose, DET vs. BOS ($5,700); Tyler Herro, MIA at DAL ($5,300); Miles Bridges, CHA vs. MEM ($5,000); Rui Hachimura, WAS at MIN ($5,000); Donte DiVincenzo, MIL vs. CHI ($4,800); Cam Reddish, ATL at BKN ($4,600); Otto Porter, CHI at MIL ($4,400); Monte Morris, DEN vs. PHO ($4,000) 

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Juan Carlos Blanco plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: DraftKings: jcblanco22, FanDuel: jc_blanco22, DraftPot: jc_blanco22, FantasyDraft: jc_blanco22, OwnThePlay: jcblanco22.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Juan Carlos Blanco
Winner of the FSWA 2016 Newcomer of the Year Award, Juan Carlos Blanco has been playing fantasy sports for over 20 years and covers NBA, MLB, NFL, CFL and Arena Football for Rotowire.com, including serving as the beat writer for teams in multiple sports. He has previously written for KFFL.com and remains an avid season-long and daily fantasy player in multiple sports as well.
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