FanDuel NBA: Saturday Value Plays

FanDuel NBA: Saturday Value Plays

This article is part of our FanDuel NBA series.

The starting lineups get weirder and weirder as we head into the home stretch! Be sure to double-check your lineups during this extra-volatile time for NBA DFS. FanDuel's seven-game offering begins at 7:00 p.m. ET, and we'll begin by looking at the odds.

SLATE OVERVIEW

(odds and lines are best available US numbers and are subject to change)

Games to Target in BOLD

Games to Fade in ITALIC

WAS @ IND (-3.5) O/U: 248

DET @ PHI (-10.5) O/U: 222

MEM @ TOR (+5) O/U: 226.5

OKC @ GSW (-14.5) O/U: 223.5

SAS @ POR (-4.5) O/U: 229.5

HOU @ UTA (-14.5) O/U: 227

BKN @ DEN (+4) O/U: 231

BACK-TO-BACK TEAMS: Sixers, Rockets, Jazz, Trail Blazers, Spurs, Nuggets

INJURIES

IND Malcolm Brogdon (hamstring) - QUESTIONABLE

IND Myles Turner (toe) - OUT

IND Edmond Sumner (knee) - QUESTIONABLE

We're still waiting for a return from Brogdon. No one is really distinguishing themselves as a quality pivot on the squad, although T.J. McConnell ($6,200) finally showed up with a decent total against the Hawks.

DET Cory Joseph (ankle) - QUESTIONABLE

DET Josh Jackson (tooth) - OUT

DET Wayne Ellington (calf) - QUESTIONABLE

The value spots are evaporating in Detroit as both Jerami Grant and Mason Plumlee are slated to return. Joseph could also be back, so you'd have to wait on slotting in Killian Hayes ($5,100).  For the salary, Sekou Doumbouya ($4,800) is still a decent value pivot.

TOR Fred VanVleet (rest) - OUT

TOR Kyle Lowry (rest) - OUT

TOR OG Anunoby (calf) - OUT

TOR Chris Boucher (knee) - OUT

The Raptors seem to be resigned to their fate now, and there's little point in risking further injury to VanVleet and Lowry. This scenario puts Gary Trent ($5,000) in a smash spot unless he gets a rest tag later in the day.  Pivoting to DeAndre' Bembry ($3,800) would then become more palatable. Malachi Flynn ($5,300) will take over the duties at point guard.

OKC Luguentz Dort (knee) - QUESTIONABLE

OKC Aleksej Pokusevski (knee) - OUT

Darius Bazley ($6,500) remains the best option here, especially in Pokusevski's absence. Ideally, this is a team to avoid.

GSW Kelly Oubre (wrist) - OUT

Kent Bazemore ($5,500) will continue to start in Oubre's place, while Andrew Wiggins ($7,400) should also continue to see positive lines in this scenario.

HOU Christian Wood (ankle) - QUESTIONABLE

HOU Kevin Porter (ankle) - QUESTIONABLE

HOU Jae'Sean Tate (knee) - QUESTIONABLE

The Rockets brought out an almost unrecognizable starting five in Friday's game. If none of these players return, expect to see more of D.J. Augustin ($3,900), Anthony Lamb ($4,400) and Kenyon Martin ($4,400). Monitor this spot closely, as swap opportunities will emerge when this game locks. With several elites going off at 10:00 p.m., you may be able to grab an additional high-dollar target by swapping on breaking news for Houston.

UTA Donovan Mitchell (ankle) - OUT

UTA Mike Conley (hamstring) - QUESTIONABLE

Conley has a fighting chance to return tonight, so we'll have to wait and see, but Bojan Bogdanovic ($5,700) remains a favorite call in this framework, but both Jordan Clarkson ($7,300) and Joe Ingles ($6,400) are definitely in the mix as more expensive options.

ELITE PLAYERS

At long last, FanDuel has finally jacked up Russell Westbrook's ($12,000) salary. We haven't seen a 12k number for a player in a long time, but the salary is entirely appropriate. 60 FDFP would be 5x value, and over the past month, he's exceeded that number about 50 percent of the time. The increase isn't enough to fade him, although it's reasonable to say that his rostership percentage might take a small hit as a result. The pace will be very fast against the Pacers, who may be without Malcolm Brogdon again. I see no reason not to spend up.

Elsewhere in the 10k range, we have several players who should all see prolific totals. Of the group, Stephen Curry ($10,200) against the Thunder and Domantas Sabonis ($10,600) against the Wizards are the best smash situations, but you also can't discount Kevin Durant ($10,600) or Kyrie Irving ($10,100).  I would favor Irving over Durant because Nikola Jokic ($11,200) will be patrolling inside and should have stewardship over the interior in one of the best spots possible.

As we move down into the 9k range, we see several more attractive options. It may finally be time to go to Bradley Beal ($9,000) at this salary as a cheaper way to enjoy the pace of the WAS/IND matchup. We also will see a potentially overworked Pascal Siakam ($8,900) put up a good number while shorthanded against the Grizzlies. Blow-out risk and fourth-quarter rest against Detroit concerns me regarding Joel Embiid ($9,600), so spending up for Jokic or finding center value may be the other way to go. Conversely, It would be foolish to fade Damian Lillard ($9,400) as he attempts to will his team into the play-in game. Finally, I would be willing to go back to the well with Caris LeVert ($8,600) if Brogdon remains out, but he may be too costly otherwise. I'll conclude with selecting three top plays, and they are Jokic, Lillard and Siakam. 

EXPECTED CHALK

DeMar DeRozan, SAS ($8,500) @ POR

Expect at least 35 minutes from DeRozan in what is a must-win game for the Spurs. Aside from the BKN/DEN game, this could be the most competitive contest on the slate, as both teams are gunning for a playoff spot. Both teams are on a back-to-back, so there's no real advantage here, although Portland will play on its home court.  

Kelly Olynyk, HOU ($8,100) @ UTA

If Houston sends out the same starting five, all of them are in great value spots. I will only lock Olynyk in if Wood sits out as expected, but he's still a powerful play independent of Wood's status. He'll be forced to play at least 30 minutes, and it's hard to fade a guy who's basically averaging a double-double over his past 10 contests. He'll also be a bit less popular than other options at the center slot, making him a worthwhile tournament option.

Jonas Valanciunas, MEM ($8,000) @ TOR

It's unfair to tempt our readers with too many centers because we know our inability to roster more than one player with a C designation. Still, I'm intrigued by Valanciunas in this spot. His floor is a bit more volatile than we've seen in previous seasons, but he has a pretty significant size advantage over Khem Birch. Neither team is playing for much at this point, but as long as JoVal can stand under the basket and grab errant shots, he'll rack up rebounds video-game style.

Michael Porter, DEN ($7,000) vs. BKN

This is one of the most intriguing price drops I've seen in recent memory. Sure, Porter's numbers are down from his previous dizzying levels, but it isn't entirely his fault. The Nuggets didn't need him to go off, so they didn't play him for his usual minutes in some of these recent contests. Saturday's matchup against the Nets is another story entirely. In what could very well be an NBA Finals preview, this game will be extremely competitive, and Porter has thrived in those situations. While this is ultimately an incredible spot for Jokic, Porter will almost certainly get his and could smash relative to his salary.

Also consider: Draymond Green, GSW ($7,900) vs. OKC

VALUE PLAYS

As usual, most of our value exists in our injury section, but we'll need to reaffirm the Houston and Toronto value available tonight. Beyond those we've already mentioned, you can find additional value in Toronto with Stanley Johnson ($3,600), and Armoni Brooks ($4,000) is a guy who could deliver for Houston.

Facundo Campazzo, DEN ($6,100) vs. BKN

The maturation process for Campazzo has been on overdrive since he took over for Jamal Murray, and while he's directing the floor well, it's his peripheral stats that are taking him to the next level. Although we could hope for a bit more shot volume, he's averaged 6.5 assists, 4.2 rebounds and 2.0 steals over the past 10 games. He's exploded for five steals a couple of times during that span. If you combine that with Kyrie Irving's propensity to cough up the ball, you could see some impressive numbers from the youngster against Brooklyn.

Jakob Poeltl, SAS ($5,900) @ POR

I apologize in advance for endorsing way too many centers here. It will benefit the MME players out there, as you'll be able to diversify your lineups with a wide variety of big men. As said previously, this is a must-win for the Spurs, and although a matchup against Jusuf Nurkic isn't the best spot Poeltl could find, he's earned some respect since taking over for LaMarcus Aldridge. He's coming off a double-double against Sacramento, which is his second in his past four games.

Justin Holiday, IND ($4,300) vs. WAS

Assuming Indiana's rotation remains the same, it's reasonable to take a flier on Holiday at a discount. The fast pace and Holiday's recent standout bench contributions make him a likely candidate to surpass 20 FP, and potentially a bit more than that. The Pacers will take whoever is hot and play them to help out Sabonis, and Holiday could end up being that guy.

Mychal Mulder, GSW ($3,800) vs. OKC

Although this endorsement carries some risk, Mulder looks to be a great play if the game gets out of hand. The Warriors will try to put this game out of reach early as they try to solidify their post-season position, and the rotation will likely give way to Mulder as a placeholder in Kelly Oubre's spot.

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Jeff Edgerton
Jeff has provided sports content for numerous sports outlets and has played fantasy sports since scores had to be tabulated via newspaper. He started working with RotoWire in 2017. Originally from South Carolina, he's a lifelong Clemson fan now enjoying the sun in Los Angeles.
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