FanDuel NBA: Friday Value Plays

FanDuel NBA: Friday Value Plays

This article is part of our FanDuel NBA series.

We have an interesting nine-game slate on tap Friday night, one that features a Utah Jazz team that could be without the entirety of its first unit and which also features several other very big names on the injury report. Luckily, not all those stars are headed for an absence, leaving us with plenty of top-shelf options to invest salary in. There are also multiple value plays in advantageous positions, which should make for a fun night of lineup construction and DFS play.

Slate Overview

San Antonio Spurs at Philadelphia 76ers (-7) (O/U: 217.0 points) 

Milwaukee Bucks at Brooklyn Nets (-4.5) (O/U: 229.0 points) 

Utah Jazz at Toronto Raptors (-11) (O/U: 220.0 points) 

Minnesota Timberwolves (-5.5) at Oklahoma City Thunder (O/U: 216.0 points) 

Dallas Mavericks (-3) at Houston Rockets (O/U: 215.5 points) 

Washington Wizards at Chicago Bulls (-6) (O/U: 224.0 points) 

Sacramento Kings at Denver Nuggets (-7.5) (O/U: 225.5 points) 

Cleveland Cavaliers (-5.5) at Portland Trail Blazers (O/U: 214.5 points) 

Atlanta Hawks at Los Angeles Lakers (-3) (O/U: 227.0 points) 

Scoring expectations are about average for Friday night's slate, with five of the nine games sporting projected totals of at least 220 points. The largest spread of the night unsurprisingly involves the aforementioned Jazz, which will be at a significant disadvantage due to a significant personnel shortage that also threatens to rob them of a couple of key second-unit players whose presence would be vital on a night like Friday.

Even with Jrue Holiday and Kyrie Irving both out of action in the Bucks-Nets marquee showdown, that contest still carries the highest projected total of the night and could be a showcase for some of the most prolific DFS production on the entire ledger. The Hawks-Lakers nightcap also carries plenty of upside in that regard, although the status of Trae Young, who is questionable due to a back injury, could naturally play a big part in how competitive the contest turns out.

Injury Situations to Monitor  

NOTE: Injury reporting is especially fluid in the NBA, where the status of multiple players can change during the course of a day. Therefore, although the following serves as a foundation for the latest injury report as of the time the article is written, check back throughout the course of the day with RotoWire for the latest news regarding the status of all players on that night's slate, including those carrying injury designations that aren't listed in this section. 

Giannis Antetokounmpo, MIL (illness): PROBABLE 

Antetokounmpo is fully expected to take the floor and could be in for even more usage than usual with Jrue Holiday in COVID-19 protocols.

LeBron James, LAL (abdomen): PROBABLE 

James is fully expected to play through his ongoing abdomen issue and should see even more elevated usage than usual with Anthony Davis (knee) out.

Trae Young, ATL (back): QUESTIONABLE 

If Young were to sit out, Delon Wright would likely step in as the starting point guard, while the usage of the remaining members of the starting five would see a notable bump. 

Luka Doncic, DAL (ankle): DOUBTFUL 

In Doncic's likely absence, Jalen Brunson should once again step in as the starting point guard for Dallas and see significant usage.

Damian Lillard, POR (abdomen): OUT

In Lillard's ongoing absence, Anfernee Simons should continue starting at point guard and enjoy significant usage.

Donovan Mitchell, UTA (back): OUT 

In Mitchell's absence, Jordan Clarkson (back) could step into a starting role if he can overcome his questionable designation.

John Collins, ATL (conditioning): GTD 

If Collins sits out another game, Danilo Gallinari should continue to start at power forward.

Kyrie Irving, BKN (personal): OUT 

With the Nets playing a home game, Irving will sit out due to local vaccination requirements and Patty Mills or DeAndre' Bembry could enter the starting five.

Other notable injuries: 

Anthony Davis, LAL (knee): OUT 

Kristaps Porzingis, DAL (COVID-19 protocols): OUT 

Jrue Holiday, MIL (COVID-19 protocols): OUT 

Rudy Gobert, UTA (COVID-19 protocols): OUT 

Derrick White, SAN (COVID-19 protocols): OUT 

Bojan Bogdanovic, UTA (finger): OUT 

Mike Conley, UTA (knee): OUT 

Tyrese Maxey, PHI (COVID-19 protocols): OUT 

Larry Nance, POR (knee): OUT 

Richaun Holmes, SAC (COVID-19 protocols): OUT 

Elite Players

We have 11 players with five-figure salaries that have a chance to be active on Friday's slate – Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,700), Nikola Jokic ($11,400), LeBron James ($11,200), Kevin Durant ($11,000), Joel Embiid ($10,800), Trae Young ($10,500), Dejounte Murray ($10,400), James Harden ($10,400), Bradley Beal ($10,200), Karl-Anthony Towns ($10,000) and Luka Doncic ($10,000). 

Antetokounmpo should be well-rested after last having played Monday and checks in with a trio of tallies of greater than 60 FD points in his last five games. He also sports a 37.1 percent usage rate and averages 63.2 FD points per 36 minutes with Jrue Holiday off the floor.

Jokic has a trio of tallies of over 60 FD points in his last six games and faces a Kings team tied for the sixth-most FD points per game allowed to centers (56.2).

James had scored over 60 FD points in five straight before dipping to 52.9 and 45.5 FD points in his last two, but he remains a very viable play against a short-handed Hawks squad.

Durant has scored over 50 FD points in two straight and will take the floor without Kyrie Irving, who'll sit out the contest due to it being on Brooklyn's home court.

Embiid has scored between 53.9 and 73.5 FD points in six of the last eight contests and faces a Spurs team that's allowed the sixth-highest offensive efficiency to the position (33.1 percent).

Young's back injury will have to be monitored leading up to tip-off, but if he plays, he'll be in an excellent matchup versus a Lakers team giving up the fourth-most FD points per game to point guards (48.8).

Murray racked up 55.8 FD points against the Celtics on Wednesday in his return from COVID-19 protocols and will face a 76ers squad down its top two point guards in Tyrese Maxey and Shake Milton.

Harden should have primary ball-handling responsibilities with Irving sitting out the contest and won't have to deal with Jrue Holiday's defense since the latter is slated to miss the game while in COVID-19 protocols.

Beal has scored over 50 FD points in three of the last four and should be heavily involved in what should be a wire-to-wire battle versus the Bulls.

Towns scored 43.7 FD points over 36 minutes against the same Thunder squad he'll face Friday in the first game of the home-and-home set Wednesday, a performance that dispelled any concerns about his post-COVID conditioning.

As noted earlier, Doncic appears highly unlikely to play Friday due to his troublesome ankle.

Expected Chalk

In addition to the players just mentioned in the prior section, other likely chalk plays include:

Fred VanVleet, TOR ($9,700) 

VanVleet has scored over 50 FD points in five of his last six games, which should keep him extremely popular, especially against an extremely short-handed Jazz squad. 

Pascal Siakam, TOR ($9,600) 

Siakam has scored 47.3 to 67.3 FD points in four of his last five games and will not have to worry about facing Rudy Gobert (COVID-19 protocols) down low Friday.

Khris Middleton, MIL ($7,800) 

Middleton sports a 31.9 percent usage rate and averages 40.6 FD points per 36 minutes with Jrue Holiday off the floor this season, which should help keep him in plenty of lineups.

Anfernee Simons, POR ($7,500) 

Simons has scored 55.1 and 44.7 FD points in the last two games while starting for Damian Lillard, excellent returns on his current salary.

Key Values 

Jusuf Nurkic, POR vs. CLE ($6,000)

Along with the just-discussed Simons, Nurkic should have a significant role Friday with Lillard, CJ McCollum (chest) and Larry Nance (knee) out of action. The veteran big man sports a 26.5 percent usage rate and averages 41.5 FD points per 36 minutes with that trio off the floor, and he's scored 35 to 43.9 FD points in his last three games. Nurkic should be able to win his fair share of battles with Jarrett Allen down low, and the Cavaliers are already come in allowing 52.8 FD points per game to centers. Nurkic has already offered over 5x return on his current salary in 23 of 34 games, so the odds on him paying some nice dividends are certainly high.

Malik Monk, LAL vs. ATL ($5,900) 

Monk has hit his stride as the starting shooting guard for the Lakers, averaging 31.6 FD points over five straight first-unit assignments while shooting 55.6 percent, including 45.9 percent from three-point range, in that span. Monk also scored 30.3 FD points in 35 minutes off the bench against the Nets on Christmas Day, the game prior to that sample. The young vet is set up for another potentially rewarding night a very reasonable salary Friday, considering the Hawks are allowing NBA-high 25.5 percent offensive efficiency to two-guards, along with 41.1 FD points per contest to the position. Atlanta is also yielding the fifth-highest three-point shooting percentage over the last three contests (39.8) and continues to work with a short-handed roster that could be down Trae Young (back) in the backcourt Friday.

Jalen Brunson, DAL at HOU ($5,300) 

Brunson appears headed for another start in place of Luka Doncic (ankle) on Friday, making him one of the best potential fantasy-point-per-dollar values of the night. The fourth-year pro has been excellent when filling in on the first unit this season, averaging 35.7 FD points per game in those scenarios on the strength of 19.8 points (on 48.3 percent shooting), 6.8 assists and 4.1 rebounds across 34.5 minutes per contest. The matchup sets up very well for a significant return on investment Friday, as the Rockets are allowing NBA-high 27.5 percent offensive efficiency to point guards, along with the second-most FD points per game to the position (49.4). What's more, Dallas is also slated to be without Kristaps Porzingis (COVID-19 protocols), and Brunson owns a 28.6 percent usage rate and averages 37.0 FD points per 36 minutes without both he and Doncic on the floor.

ALSO CONSIDER: Tim Hardaway, DAL at HOU ($5,800); Furkan Korkmaz, PHI vs. SA ($5,500); Lauri Markkanen, CLE at POR ($5,200) 

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Juan Carlos Blanco plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: DraftKings: jcblanco22, FanDuel: jc_blanco22, DraftPot: jc_blanco22, FantasyDraft: jc_blanco22, OwnThePlay: jcblanco22.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Juan Carlos Blanco
Winner of the FSWA 2016 Newcomer of the Year Award, Juan Carlos Blanco has been playing fantasy sports for over 20 years and covers NBA, MLB, NFL, CFL and Arena Football for Rotowire.com, including serving as the beat writer for teams in multiple sports. He has previously written for KFFL.com and remains an avid season-long and daily fantasy player in multiple sports as well.
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