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Box Score Breakdown — Will Barton Ever Regress?

After an undeserved hiatus, I'm back with the goods.

HOSPITAL WARD

Patrick Patterson exited after eight minutes because of an illness. The Raptors have three days off before their next game, providing ample time for Patterson to recover. Coach Casey ran a six-man rotation and gave another four players between 6-10 minutes. Anthony Bennett was called upon for just the third time this month, crafting five points (2-5 FG, 1-3 3Pt) and two rebounds in 10 minutes. He recently spent time in the D-League, and Bennett's recorded eight fouls, four turnovers, and zero assists in 58 minutes this season. He's played the most minutes without an assist. I'm not labeling him a lost cause. I just think there's no hope for him to play meaningful minutes with the Raptors this year. 

Deron Williams strained his left hamstring and only played 23 minutes before leaving the game. It's something that's bothered him for the last week, and he claimed he heard a "pop." Lower leg issues require rest to properly heal or they linger the entire season. Williams dealt with a calf injury in the preseason that forced him to miss all but one exhibition game. He missed two games last season with a calf issue and 12 games because of a broken rib. The ankle problems were non-existent last year, but in the playoffs, it was brought to light that he was dealing with tendinitis - location unknown. The Mavericks play four times in the next nine days, including tonight against the Nets. I don't know if Williams will play, but with Devin Harris (hamstring) sidelined, Raymond Felton becomes the clear-cut winner. He was accumulating solid box score stats this month due to a variety of circumstances, and should Williams miss extended time, Felton will shift over to lead guard and Chandler Parsons may reenter the starting lineup.

M.I.A.

  • Dallas
    • Devin Harris (hamstring)
  • Denver
    • Danilo Gallinari (ankle)
    • Emmanuel Mudiay (ankle)
    • Jusuf Nurkic (knee)
  • Detroit
    • Brandon Jennings (DNP-CD)
    • Jodie Meeks (back)
  • Memphis
    • Brandan Wright (knee)
    • Jordan Adams (knee)
  • Miami
    • Goran Dragic (hand)
    • Tyler Johnson (shoulder)
    • Josh McRoberts (knee)
  • Philadelphia
    • Kendall Marshall (rest)
    • Carl Landry (wrist)
  • Toronto
    • DeMarre Carroll (knee)
    • Jonas Valanciunas (hand)
    • James Johnson (ankle)

ROTATION NOTES

Jerami Grant replaced Nerlens Noel in the starting lineup to matchup with the Grizzlies. Both played 27 minutes and neither offered much in the way of box score stats. Noel only attempted three shots. He's blocked a shot in five straight games but only offered two totals steals in the last four contests. Noel's future this season is murky because of the position change, shot selection, and nagging knee soreness. Until those things subside, he's stuck in a paralyzing limbo.

Kendall Marshall rested the first night of a back-to-back. In his place, Tony Wroten started and did Tony Wroten things. He filled up the box score with seven points, seven assists, five rebounds, and five turnovers in 29 minutes while shooting 2-of-9 from the field and 3-of-8 from the free-throw line.

Wroten will sit Wednesday, the second leg of the back-to-back, and Marshall will likely start. Here in lies the larger problem: Wroten is an inefficient stat padder who performs best when playing on the ball. Coach Brown stated the starting point guard job is Marshall's to lose. Even though Wroten played 29 minutes last night, both Wroten and Marshall are expected to be limited to 25 minutes a night until full clearance from the training staff. I'm interested in Marshall because he's capable of racking up assists while fostering the development of Jahlil Okafor and Noel. Eight assists a night isn't insane, but those will come with poor percentages and minimal contributions elsewhere.

Goran Dragic (hand) was unavailable for the first time this season. He's dealing with swelling on his shooting wrist, an injured right thumb, and a sore left calf. The Heat receive two days off before beginning a stretch of four games in five days on Christmas. Dragic isn't the player he was in Phoenix when Eric Bledsoe missed three months due to a knee surgery. That was an outlier year and no one should expect a return to that dominance. Nonetheless, I'm targeting Dragic on the buy-low because Dwyane Wade will eventually miss time because of knee soreness. The Heat have played two back-to-back sets all season, and Wade only missed one game because his son was ill. In those back-to-back games, Wade converted 7-of-31 shots and only attempted seven shots in the restricted area. When Wade is on the court, Dragic's usage rate is 17.6 percent, similar to last season's number. When Wade is bench side, Dragic posts a 26 percent usage rate and shoots 10 percent better because he's able to veer into the paint instead of watching from the perimeter.

Beno Udrih started and provided 14 points (7-11 FG, 0-3 3Pt), six assists, and three rebounds in 34 minutes. Because I don't know when Dragic will be cleared to play, Udrih will provide comparable numbers with Josh Richardson as the only backup. This is more of a streaming situation. Dragic will be reevaluated prior to Friday's game, lessening the need to procure Udrih immediately.

James Johnson sprained an ankle in pregame warmup, thrusting Terrence Ross into the starting lineup where he tallied 16 points (5-9 FG, 4-8 3Pt, 2-2 FT), three rebounds, one assist, and one steal in 33 minutes. It appears that his confidence has reemerged, but his playing time will drop when DeMarre Carroll (knee) eventually returns. I wasn't able to recommend Ross in Category Strategy because the Raptors play two games this week. Their next game occurs on Saturday when 25 other teams play. It's better to watch list him and keep tabs on Carroll's prognosis.

Kostas Papanikolaou started for the injured Danilo Gallinari (ankle). He picked up two fouls in the first seven minutes and only played 11 the entire game.

Kobe Bryant played after skipping Saturday's game, generating four days off and allowing Anthony Brown to start. Brown was a DNP-CD last night and Bryant tied his season-high of 31 points (10-22 FG, 2-9 3Pt, 9-11 FT) to go along with five assists, three rebounds, one steal, and one block in 32 minutes. Starting Friday, the Lakers play five games in seven nights. Now that Bryant is performing closer to his reputation, the time to trade him for a player who's less susceptible to injury has arrived. Over the last seven games, Bryant is shooting 48 percent from the field and averaging 20.6 points, 5.1 rebounds, 4.1 assists, and 2.0 three-pointers in 30 minutes per game. The announcement of his retirement has led to improved shot selection and a relaxed demeanor while deferring playing time and attempts.

FANTASY LINE OF THE NIGHT

Kyle Lowry: 17 points (6-13 FG, 2-4 3Pt, 3-3 FT), 10 rebounds, seven assists, one block, 38 minutes

Lowry failed to record a steal for just the second time this season. His shooting numbers have taken a dip over the last two weeks, but as mentioned in a previous Box Score Breakdown, Jonas Valanciunas (hand) and DeMarre Carroll (knee) will take the burden off Lowry when they ultimately return. Lowry's slump opens a minor crack for a buy-low opportunity. Naysayers are probably fixated on last season's downturn and expect similar results. Lowry is healthy this season and in great shape, reducing the pressure he places on his knees every night. Once the rotation restores to normalcy, Lowry can regain his early season form.

ROOKIE OF THE NIGHT

Nikola Jokic: 15 points (5-7 FG, 5-6 FT), 10 rebounds, five assists, 30 minutes

Joffrey Lauvergne picked up four fouls in 16 minutes, creating playing time for Jokic against the Lakers. I don't think he'll play more than 20 minutes against the Suns tonight because of the matchup, but Jokic has routinely been above 20 minutes the last six contests. He made some impressive passes last night that led to easy layups. He's intriguing, but his long-term prospects are tied to Jusuf Nurkic (knee) and Kenneth Faried, who occupies the center spot occasionally. I don't expect much from Nurkic this season - he's been out since April after undergoing knee surgery and rehabbing in the interim. At best, they'll platoon and Jokic will play more on most nights. Because Nurkic is theoretically a better player than Lauvergne - Nurkic has been plagued with lower leg issues going back to the end of last season, potentially limiting his minutes this year and sapping his mobility - and Jokic has already been splitting time with Lauvergne, adding Nurkic to the picture only raises more questions about playing time and roles.

BOX SCORE HIGHLIGHTS AND ODDITIES

All Grizzlies' starters minus Jeff Green (19 minutes) scored double-digit points, and Zach Randolph added 14 points and eight rebounds off the bench. Matt Barnes compiled a double-double and at least two of every stat, cementing his place among the ownable players in fantasy.

Hollis Thompson hit four three-pointers and scored 16 points in 28 minutes. For the third straight season, Thompson is leading the Sixers in three-point accuracy. He's fourth in Sixers' franchise history in three-point percentage at 39.5 percent.

The Pistons' bench displayed signs of life on the precipice of Brandon Jennings' (Achilles) return. Jennings was available in an emergency situation only, and he probably won't play until next week. Steve Blake provided 12 points on four three-pointers and Stanley Johnson added 14 first-half points (5-10 FG, 4-7 3Pt), four rebounds, and three assists in 23 minutes. Jennings will eventually weasel into the rotation, likely nudging Blake out of playing time. As the backup point guard, he'll garner at least 16 minutes, a potential cap on his minutes until deemed ready by the training staff. Because the Pistons lack playmakers, Jennings could eventually play 20-24 minutes a night. Additional minutes will come at the expense of Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, who's second in the league at 38.0 minutes per game, and Johnson. I peg Jennings for 12 points, five assists, and one three-pointer by the time he's fully cleared, and that's useful to some fantasy teams. However, it's unknown how long the restrictions will last or how much athleticism Jennings lost at the hands of the ruptured Achilles.

Hassan Whiteside registered 16 points (7-13 FG, 2-2 FT), 16 rebounds, and four blocks in 35 minutes. He played at least 30 minutes for the third straight game after playing less than 30 minutes the previous nine games. Whiteside averages 5.1 minutes in the fourth quarter, the ninth most on the team, and he hasn't participated in seven fourth quarters this season. The minutes fluctuate based on the matchup. Nevertheless, Whiteside doesn't require more than 25 minutes to meet expected production: somewhere in the neighborhood of 10 rebounds and four blocks. Anything more than that is pleasant.

Coach Carlisle used his bench for the final 5:20 of the game and they nearly rallied to defeat the Raptors. As such, the starters were limited. Dirk Nowitzki and Wesley Matthews were the only Mavericks to reach 10 points, scoring 20 and 15 respectively.

JaVale McGee added five points (1-4 FG, 3-4 FT), five rebounds, three blocks and one assist in 17 minutes. He's played three straight games following three consecutive DNP-rests. The Mavericks have until January 10th before his contract guarantees, meaning he's not a lock to be on the roster in three weeks. The Mavs medical staff is one the most renowned in the league, and they're likely going to limit McGee with intermittent rest days following two years of severe leg issues. He's dealt with asthma in the past, so this is strictly a watchlist scenario. As you may already know, blocks and field goal percentage are his only positive contributions in fantasy basketball. Those will come in handy in two months.

Bismack Biyombo secured a career-high 20 rebounds. Much like Terrence Ross above, I couldn't recommend Biyombo in Category Strategy because the Raptors play once more the rest of the week. It's also plausible Jonas Valanciunas (hand) returns soon. I fear for Valanciunas' minutes because Biyombo has made an indelible mark on the defense. The Raptors are 10-6 without Valanciunas, and their offense and defense ratings have remained steady in his absence. Biyombo doesn't require plays run for him, allowing Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan to dictate the offense. Valanciunas was playing 27.3 minutes and averaging a combined 1.4 assists, steals, and blocks per game, one of the worst marks in the league prior to the injury. In his absence, Lowry and DeRozan are attempting an extra two shots per game.

Will Barton scored 18 points in the first quarter and finished with 25 (10-21 FG, 2-6 3Pt, 3-3 FT) in 38 minutes. He's been phenomenal lately, playing increased minutes with Danilo Gallinari (ankle) and Emmanuel Mudiay (ankle) out. Here's the list of players averaging at least 15.0 points, 5.0 rebounds, 1.0 steal, 1.5 three-pointers and 45 percent accuracy from the field: Stephen Curry, Kevin Durant, Kawhi Leonard, and Barton. It's an incredible list with skewed endpoints that illuminate the type of season Barton has had. He's been extremely efficient this season, shooting 46 percent from the field, 40 percent from downtown, and 86 percent on free-throws, all besting his career averages. His counting stats are similar to those he posted last season in 28 games with the Nuggets, so the only thing that could eventually cause regression is a slip in efficiency, something I mentioned last month in the Shot Chart Breakdown. Barton allows teammates to create shots for him, and almost all of his three-pointers are open looks. He'll occasionally throw up some insane attempts that have no business going in. The table below depicts Bartons' stats based on Gallinari's availability. As you can tell, Barton pilots the offense when Gallinari is on the bench at a much more efficient rate. Barton is also aided by the facilitation of Mudiay and Jameer Nelson, the latter more than doubling the number of passes made to Barton than anyone on the Nuggets and notching the most assists from made Barton field goal in the process.

BartonPoints per 100 possessionsFG%3P%Usage RateTotal minutes
w/ Gallinari22.341.3%32.1%20.7%403
w/o Gallinari31.049.5%47.5%26.0%405

Gary Harris, or "G-Money" in my household, scored 21 points (9-15 FG, 2-5 3Pt, 1-2 FT) and accumulated one assist, steal, rebound, and block in 35 minutes. I understand it was against the Lakers and without Gallinari (ankle), but his improvement this season has impressed me like no other. If it wasn't for Lance Stephenson shooting 17 percent on three-pointers last season, Harris would have held the worst mark with a 20-percent efficiency on threes in his rookie season. Paired with his defense, which forces him to guard the opposing team's best player every night, Harris is shooting 38 percent from deep. He can drift in and out of the offense based on his defensive burden, bit his efficiency makes him a rotisserie target. Sadly, he offers minimal counting stats, much likeLance Stephenson converting 17 percent of his three-pointers last season, Harris would have held the worst mark with a 20-percent efficiency on threes in his rookie season. Paired with his defense, which forces him to guard the opposing team's best player every night, Harris is shooting 38 percent from deep. He can drift in and out of the offense based on his defensive burden, but his efficiency makes him a rotisserie target. Sadly, he offers minimal counting stats, much like Allen Crabbe or T.J. Warren.

Brandon Bass played a season-high 31 minutes. Roy Hibbert was hit with five fouls in 15 minutes and Larry Nance accumulated four fouls in 19 minutes. Bass played 28 total minutes over the previous eight games, sitting out four of them as a DNP-CD. I don't believe this is a sign of things to come, but we're nearing the end of coach Scott's 10-game starting lineup reconfiguration. Anything goes, so keep an eye on Bass in case he replaces Nance or Hibbert in the near future.

NIGHTLY LEADERS

Points

  1. Kobe Bryant, F, LAL: 31 points
  2. DeMar DeRozan, G, TOR: 28 points
  3. Will Barton, F, DEN: 25 points

Rebounds

  1. Bismack Biyombo, C, TOR: 20 rebounds
  2. Hassan Whiteside, C, MIA: 16 rebounds
  3. Andre Drummond, C, DET: 12 rebounds

Assists

  1. Jameer Nelson, G, DEN: 8 assists
  2. Kyle Lowry, G, TOR: 7 assists
  3. Mario Chalmers, G, MEM: 7 assists
  4. Tony Wroten, G, PHI: 7 assists

Steals

  1. Luol Deng, F, MIA: 5 steals
  2. Mario Chalmers, G, MEM: 4 steals
  3. Three players tied with three steals

Blocks

  1. Hassan Whiteside, C, MIA: 4 blocks
  2. Brandon Bass, F, LAL: 4 blocks
  3. Gerald Green, G, MIA: 3 blocks
  4. JaVale McGee, C, DAL: 3 blocks

Three-Pointers

  1. Dirk Nowitzki, F, DAL: 4-9 3Pt
  2. Terrence Ross, F, TOR: 4-8 3Pt
  3. Stanley Johnson, G, DET: 4-7 3Pt
  4. Steve Blake, G, DET: 4-5 3Pt
  5. Hollis Thompson, F, PHI: 4-6 3Pt

Minutes

  1. DeMar DeRozan, G, TOR: 40 minutes
  2. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, G, DET: 40 minutes
  3. Kyle Lowry, G, TOR: 38 minutes
  4. Bismack Biyombo, C, TOR: 38 minutes