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RotoWire CBB Invitational: Putting Our DFS Skills to the Test

This Saturday was the first week of our college hoops expert contest, which stacks up several experts from RotoWire and other fantasy websites in one comprehensive competition. Several RotoWire beat writers are featured, as well as entries from websites such as RotoGrinders, Fantasy Insiders, Numberfire, Daily Fantasy Cafe and many more.

The challenge is an eight-week, "survivor" style contest held on FanDuel. We narrowed down the field to 27 total participants, and each individual was given 10 total entries in Round One. After the early slate on FanDuel was complete, 128 of those entries survived for the next round of competition. The field will be cut in half every week until the eight most consistent experts square off in one final battle on March 26th, 2016.

As far as strategy goes, this contest should, in theory, be treated like a 50/50 or other standard cash game. Outside of advancing to the next round, there is no bonus for finishing in the top-5, or even first overall. As such, participants were best suited to roll with a high-floor lineup where risk-taking is discouraged. Let's see how the contest played out:

Best Lineup - Cory B. (@CBassDFS)

Cory entered this lineup four times, taking the top four spots in the competition:

F: Dwayne Bacon ($7600) - Florida State - 21.7 points

F: Trevon Bluiett ($8600) - Xavier - 45 points

F: Deng Adel ($4500) - Louisville - 29.4 points

F: Cody Martin ($5200) - NC State - 22.5 points

F: Devin Thomas ($8400) - Wake Forest - 25 points

G: Troy Caupain ($6300) - Cincinnati - 32 points

G: Codi Miller-McIntyre ($5300) - Wake Forest - 28.3 points

G: Andrew White ($7600) - Nebraska - 35.1 points

G: Edmond Sumner ($6300) - Xavier - 29.5 points

Total Fantasy Points: 268.50

Strategy: Cory took advantage of the Louisville situation, as Damion Lee was out of action due to a knee injury (I unfortunately had him in one lineup). In his absence, Cory used Deng Adel, who returned excellent value at the minimum salary. Cory also took advantage of a favorable matchup by using a Wake Forest stack, as both Miller-McIntyre and Thomas cashed in respectable performances. Cory entered this lineup four separate times, but had all 10 of his entries advance to the second round, taking 10 of the top 20 overall spots.

Top RotoWire Finisher - Alex S.(@RotoWire_Alex)

F: Chinanu Onuaku ($7900) - Louisville - 35.1 points

F: Deng Adel ($4500) - Louisville - 29.4 points

F: Gary Clark ($7900) - Cincinnati - 44.3 points

F: Shavon Shields ($7500) - Nebraska - 31.1 points

F: Georges Niang ($7700) - Iowa State - 32.3 points

G: Donovan Mitchell ($4700) - Louisville - 14.5 points

G: Andrew White ($7600) - Nebraska - 35.1 points

G: Deonte Burton ($5300) - Iowa State - 21.1 points

G: A.J. Davis ($6800) - Central Florida - 22.1 points

Total Fantasy Points: 265.0

Strategy: Alex, who fell 3.5 fantasy points shy of Cory, also took advantage of the Louisville situation, finding modest values in players who were expected to step up in the absence of Lee. His lineup reacted perfectly to the morning's news, as he worked in Deonte Burton at $5300, who was starting the absence of the suspended Jameel McKay. He also got decent value out of Georges Niang, who was expected to see additional rebounding opportunities with McKay on the shelf. Mix that with big performances out of Clark, Onuaku and White, and Alex was poised for a strong day. In total, Alex advanced seven of his 10 entries to the second round.

My Lineups (@JakeSki52)

I entered 10 completely different lineups in this contest to ensure I would at least advance a few. Here are my four lineups that ultimately advanced, along with the corresponding strategy.

Lineup 1: "First Instinct" Lineup (50th overall)

F: Trevon Bluiett ($8600) - Xavier - 45 points

F: Jalen Reynolds ($5700) - Xavier - 21.8 points

F: Shavon Shields ($7500) - Nebraska - 31.1 points

F: Raymond Spalding ($4700) - Louisville - 16.4 points

F: Perry Ellis ($8200) - Kansas - 40.5 points

G: Retin Obasohan ($8700) - Alabama - 27.4 points

G: Codi Miller-McIntyre ($5300) - Wake Forest - 28.3 points

G: Jeff Newberry ($5700) - Oklahoma State - 8.9 points

G: Leyton Hammonds ($5600) - Oklahoma State - 20.6 points

Total Fantasy Points: 240.0

Strategy: Like I said in the title, this was my first instinct lineup. I looked at the available player pool for the first time, and without doing any major research, I put together a lineup based on instinct. I took some OK State guys because of a home matchup against a poor defense and fast-paced team in Iowa State, and used a similar strategy when selecting Xavier players. Miller-McIntyre's price seemed to good to be true given his skill set, so I rolled with him. I rounded out the lineup with high-floor consistency players that were well-suited for this type of contest.

Lineup 2: "Industry Consensus" Lineup (64th overall)

F: Devin Thomas ($8400) - Wake Forest - 25 points

F: Cody Martin ($5200) - NC State - 22.5 points

F: Luke Fischer ($6100) - Marquette - 27.6 points

F: Georges Niang ($7700) - Iowa State - 32.3 points

F: Shavon Shields ($7500) - Nebraska - 31.1 points

G: Isaiah Zierden ($5300) - Creighton - 14.5 points

G: Xavier Rathan-Mayes ($5900) - Florida State - 17.5 points

G: Troy Caupain ($6300) - Cincinnati - 32 points

G: Andrew White ($7600) - Nebraska - 35.1 points

Total Fantasy Points: 237.6

Strategy: I'm not the only "expert" in the industry, right? I went through some of the DFS recommendation articles on other sites, and put together a lineup based on the most commonly recommended players from other talking heads. Here's what I came up with, and it seemed to be successful enough.

Lineup 3: RotoWire Optimal Lineup (65th overall)

F: Trevon Bluiett ($8600) - Xavier - 45 points

F: Gary Clark ($7900) - Cincinnati - 44.3 points

F: Dwayne Bacon ($7600) - Florida State - 21.7 points

F: Shavon Shields ($7500) - Nebraska - 31.1 points

F: Jaylen Bond ($6300) - Temple - 4.9 points

G: Troy Caupain ($6300) - Cincinnati - 32 points

G: Xavier Rathan-Mayes ($5900) - Florida State - 17.5 points

G: Codi Miller-McIntyre ($5300) - Wake Forest - 28.3 points

G: Devaugntah Williams ($4600) - Texas Tech - 12.6 points

Total Fantasy Points: 237.4

Strategy: I'm a true believer that our lineup optimizer hits more often than it misses, and that was the case Saturday afternoon. The only true dud was Jaylen Bond, who had an excellent matchup on paper against a UCF squad with a relatively fast pace and poor defensive efficiency. Other than that, it generated a lineup that was balanced enough to advance.

Lineup 4: "Stars & Scrubs" - Forwards (117th overall)

F: Henry Ellenson ($9600) - Marquette - 37.4 points

F: Denzel Valentine ($10,100) - Michigan State - 39.8 points

F: Brandon Ingram ($9700) - Duke - 30.9 points

F: Konstantinos Mitoglou ($4800) - Wake Forest - 13.6 points

F: Boris Bojanovsky ($4900) - Florida State - 24.9 points

G: Jalen Brunson ($4800) - Villanova - 10.6 points

G: Codi Miller-McIntyre ($5300) - Wake Forest - 28.3 points

G: Leyton Hammonds ($5600) - Oklahoma State - 20.6 points

G: Matt Jones ($5200) - Duke - 16.6 points

Total Fantasy Points: 222.7

Strategy: I essentially took the three highest priced forwards on the board, regardless of matchup, and paired them up with a bunch of salary-relief options that I at least knew were going to see minutes. In the end, my "stars" produced just well enough, while my "scrubs" such as Bojanovsky & Miller-McIntyre returned enough value to advance this lineup. For what it's worth, I think CMM is criminally undervalued at $5300, and will be using him almost everywhere until that price climbs a bit.

What did I learn?

In the end, I would have been better off trusting my gut with 10 lineups. But that doesn't make for interesting writing material. My closest lineup that didn't advance was my Wake Forest stack, and other lineups that missed out were: another industry consensus, Cincinnati stack, stars & scrubs (guards), "balanced" lineup and a "contrarian" lineup -- one that didn't contain any players used elsewhere, just so I could advance one lineup if all my other presumptions about the day turned out to be grossly inaccurate. Next week, I still plan on entering four separate lineups, but will make a more concentrated effort to stick to my guns.

Finally, here is a table of the results that includes Twitter handle, website affiliation, remaining entries and best finish:

TwitterAffiliationEntries RemainingBest Finish
@CBassDFSIndependent101
@BronzesworldRotoGrinders1010
@unky_warthogIndependent1024
@E_ForstyIndependent1042
@uncl3dunkl3Daily Fantasy Cafe1045
@GSUGrindingNumberfire1054
@HowTheProsDoItIndependent10102
@verrill15235Independent917
@DubDeuces85Independent87
@RotoWire_AlexRotoWire75
@RealJRAndersonRotoWire681
Joel B.RotoWire588
@freekobRotoWire438
@petemerrillRotoWire441
@JakeSki52RotoWire450
@Jupiter13Independent476
@TheJourdanCaseFantasy Insiders251
@JesseLSiegelRotoWire281
@Sodes34RotoWire2118
@frquisNumberfire144
@fearmyturtleDFSFantasy Insiders0130
@theproduct2fwitIndependent0157
@RotoBennettRotoWire0199
@wha1enRotoWire0207