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Game One Lessons

The NBA playoffs, like the regular season, is a marathon and not a sprint.  With four rounds of best-of-seven, focusing too much on any one game is folly.  On the other hand, some trends can show up from the very start and are just reiterated as the series and playoffs progress.  Here are a few things that jumped out at me from the various game ones this weekend.

1) The Cavs and the Lakers aren't playing around.  These are the two healthy, elite teams in this tournament and they both came out of the gate ultra focused.  Based on 2007-08 some saw the names "Pistons" and "Jazz" as opponents and predicted these would be challenging series, but after game one blowouts it would not be surprising if both the Cavs and Lakers had finished off their first rounds and were preparing for the next opponents by this time next week.

2) The injured elites are vulnerable.  The Celtics and Spurs are the last two NBA champs, and if healthy they could both lay claim to the "elite" title currently shared by the Cavs and Lakers.  But they aren't healthy, and in their game ones they both took losses.   With Manu Ginobili out, Tim Duncan limping, and Kevin Garnett's knee deserving of its own soap opera both of these championship-caliber teams are ripe to be plucked.  Ultimately, I don't know if the Bulls have the experience and savvy to beat even a vulnerable Celtics squad without Garnett.  The Mavs, on the other hand, are a veteran group led by players that have all been to the NBA Finals in recent years.  In other words, the Spurs may be in trouble.

3) The Nuggets, Hawks, and Rockets want to be taken seriously.  Each of these three teams had strong regular seasons, but none have had strong postseasons in recent years so they aren't usually considered legitimate contenders.  But by absolutely thrashing the Hornets, Heat, and Trailblazers respectively in their game ones each team has served notice that they don't plan to go quietly this year.

4) The Magic need to grow up before they can be considered elite. 
Orlando has an elite big man, strong defense and good shooters...all positive staples for playoff basketball.  Unfortunately, they also rely too much on the long-range shot and don't have a strong backcourt to keep the team focused or create a shot in tough times...big red flags for playoff basketball.  They should recover from their horrible come-from-ahead loss in game one in time to beat the 76ers, but the Magic are already showing flaws that would seem prohibitive against the healthy elite teams.  They may need this last postseason of experience and a solid addition to their backcourt in the offseason (perhaps just the return of a healthy Jameer Nelson) before they are really grown up enough to hang with the big dawgs.