The Nuggets are the second seed in the Western Conference playoffs. The Nuggets are one of only a handful of teams that were in the top-10 in the NBA in both offensive and defensive efficiency this season, and along with the Cavs are the only team in the top-2 in both offensive and defensive efficiency thus far in the playoffs. Despite that, hardly anyone is talking about them as serious championship contenders. Why is that?
Well, there are a few reasons. For one thing, most expect championship contenders to be led by a mega star, usually one of the top five players in the league. The Nuggets have some talent, but nobody on that level. For another thing, people expect the contenders to develop over years as they pay their dues on the way to the top. The Nuggets hadn't gotten out of the first round since the mid-90s before this season, not exactly a pedigree for excellence. Finally, the Nuggets just don't generate a buzz. They have a nice record this year with 54 wins, but that didn't exactly separate them from the pack. They aren't in a major basketball market, they don't have many players with major endorsements, and they just aren't mainstays at the top of the sports news telecasts. As such, they just don't FEEL much like a championship team. But then again, neither did the Pistons in 2004...and we saw how that ended up. So let's reverse the question...why SHOULD people consider them as legitimate contenders. Again, there are several reasons:
1) They have a former Finals MVP as their floor leader. One of the reasons that most championship teams are led by a superstar is because it is a long, arduous journey to get to the Finals and if you get there, you need the stability and confidence of playing next to someone you know can produce at the top. In this case the Nuggets lack a top-5 player, but they ARE one of only two teams left in the playoffs led by a former NBA Finals MVP. Chauncey Billups has proven that he can produce on the biggest stage, and after leading such a massive turnaround in Denver this season Billups has the respect of both his teammates and the opposition such that he is able to replicate some of the "intangibles" that teams usually get from a superstar.
2) Their best player flirts with greatness. Though Billups is the floor leader, Carmelo Anthony is the best player on the team. Anthony has become the forgotten child of the 2003 NBA draft, falling behind classmates LeBron James and Dwyane Wade. But it wasn't that long ago that Melo tied a bow on one of the greatest freshmen years in NCAA history with a championship. It wasn't that long ago that he had a very legitimate argument to be the Rookie of the Year over LeBron. It was only a few years ago that Melo was generally considered the best player on team USA despite having LeBron and Wade as teammates. He was well on his way to leading the NBA in scoring before the Allen Iverson trade slowed down his pace. So while Anthony's game isn't quite diverse enough to ever really put him at the top of the league, he can score with anyone and has historically produced very well on big stages. Paired with Billups' cache and hardware, Melo has the game and the chops to make up the rest of what a team would expect out of a superstar.
3) They have very good interior defense and rebounding Probably the most overlooked part of what makes the Nuggets contenders is that they have one of the better interior defenses in the NBA. As I pointed out before, strong interior defense is a common denominator for just about every championship team in history. With Nene, Kenyon Martin and Chris Andersen the Nuggets have the ability to effectively defend the paint and crash the boards, keeping them honest down low so that their perimeter stars can win games for them.
4) Their Coach has NBA Finals experience Like Billups, Nuggets Coach George Karl has been on the big stage before and should know how to handle the situation as well as how to prepare a team for what they will face. The Finals are about more than just playing basketball, they are about more pressure and media coverage than most players face in a career. Karl, having been there before, should be able to help his team navigate this if they are able to get there.
5) Wild card players. While the Nuggets' starting line-up is formidable, they also have a couple of wild cards off the bench that can win them a game on any given night. J.R. Smith is one of the streakiest long-range shooters in the NBA, and when he has the blow-torch going he can go off for 30 points or eight treys without warning. Likewise, Chris Andersen was second in the NBA in blocked shots despite playing only 21 minutes per game. Game-changers off the bench can be huge in a playoffs series where you only have to win four times to advance.
All of that said, would I make the Nuggets championship favorites? No. I do believe that the Lakers and Cavs are better, and that if the Celtics got healthy they would be better as well. That said, the Nuggets are better than advertised and have the balance to be extremely dangerous. While I don't expect them to come out of the West, I wouldn't be shocked at all if they do. They have the ability to beat any team, including the Lakers, so don't sleep on Denver as they continue their quest for respect against the Mavs tonight.