I didn't do a specific preview for this series, but a couple weeks ago I blogged on whether the Nuggets had enough to win the title. And after watching game 1, pretty much everything I mentioned in that post is definitely in play. My game 1 impressions:
1) Carmelo Anthony was the best player on the court. I didn't expect that. I knew that he could score with anyone, even Kobe Bryant, but he also had a solid all-around effort and even played good defense. I expect Melo to take a step back at some point, as I have to think that game was about as good as he can play. On the other hand, Melo has always had a flair for the big stage and the fact that he was that brilliant on the road is a positive indicator. I'll go ahead and say that if he plays at that level consistently, the Nuggets win this series in 6.
2) The Lakers role players played at about their max in game 1, and it was still tight. In the Rockets series it became abundantly clear that the Laker role players operate at a much higher level in the Staples Center than they do on the road. In fact, in games 5 and 7 of the Rox series those role players helped turn the games into blowouts. I remember one sequence at the end of the first quarter in game 5 when Lamar Odom, Trevor Ariza, and Jordan Farmar all hit contested treys in a row to stretch the game out. But then, in other games those same role players would build a brick house from downtown. Well, in WCF game 1, the role players were hitting dagger treys. The problem is, the Lakers NEEDED those dagger treys to even pull out a close game. I'm not sure the role players can maintain that level in 4 different games, but it looks like they will need to.
3) Kobe's finish was brilliant. Part of the reason that I figured that the Nuggets could make life hard on the Lakers was that, between Melo and Chauncey Billups, they had late-game finishers that could help offset Kobe. In game 1, though, this didn't happen. The Nuggets had the lead and the ball, but they couldn't put it away. Meanwhile, Kobe either made shots or got to the line on most possessions to keep the pressure on until the Lakers finally overcame them.
4) The coaching and the wild card players are key. In my last blog on the Nuggets, I pointed out that George Karl has NBA finals coaching experience and that J.R. Smith and Chris Andersen are wild cards that could win a game for Denver on any given night. In game 1, though, these were the weak links. Karl's decision to have Anthony Carter in at shooting guard to attempt to guard Kobe made my brain hurt, and his decision to have him inbound the ball while being guarded by the 6-10 Odom almost made my eyes bleed. And Smith looked really shaky early, missing shots badly and basically looking not quite ready for the moment. The Nuggets will need more from these three, and if they get it they have a shot.
I've said before that I expect the Lakers to take this series, and I still do. But Denver has the pieces to get it done, so I'm looking forward to what should hopefully be an entertaining WCF.