After missing out on the Packers at 30:1 despite being on them virtually all season, I was determined to make some futures bets. In particular, I saw the Chargers at 30:1 and the Colts at 20:1 (online, in recent weeks), and I wanted "in" on that action. Unfortunately, my hope quickly turned to disappointment. Most of the sports books follow MGM, and their lines were grossly skewed in favor of the house. The Chargers and Colts were down to 10:1. The teams that most would consider favorites for the 2012 title had no value - Pats were 5:1; Packers 6:1; even the Cowboys were 8:1. This far in advance of the season, there's just no value there. It wasn't any better for the long-shots. I sort of like the Bucs (emerging QB and young WRs, young core of talent) and Lions (young studs on both sides), but I'd like them at 70:1 (since they're probably a year or two away), not 30:1. It wasn't any better for the other sports. The Lakers, Celtics, and Spurs are all 2:1 to win the title; the Heat are 6:5. It's basically impossible for all of those lines to co-exist like that - all four can't be 2:1 or better. Hell, all four can't be better than 4:1 (as even if you agree they're the best four, you have to factor in the chances of injuries and upsets). Baseball was similarly disappointing. For instance, the Brewers - who several writers at RW have commented on - are down to 12:1. All of the futures bets were so bad that despite being intent on getting in on the action, I was almost resigned to doing nothing. That all changed, though, when I went to Hilton. In addition to having the biggest sports book in Vegas, the lines at Hilton were far more favorable than MGM. The Colts were 18:1, and I jumped on that. Here's why.
In their division, they Colts are basically a shoe-in for the playoffs. Anything can happen in the NFL, but the Titans (no QB), Texans (no defense), and Jaguars (perenially average) hardly seem a significant threat to the division title. Once you presume the Colts make the playoffs, they're only four wins from winning it all; three wins if they get a bye. Presuming they'd have about a 50/50 chance of winning each of their playoff games, that makes them a 1 in 16 proposition if they're a WC (1/2 to the fourth power); 1 in 8 if they get a bye (1/2 to the third power). And the Super Bowl is in Indy, which, if they make it, would certainly help. Considering Vegas always includes a vig in these lines, 18:1 for the Colts seems really reasonable.
By no means am I an expert gambler, but it really irks me to get stuck playing blackjack with drunk idiots who have no idea how to play. I mean, seriously, if you're going to hit on hard 12 against a 6, just mail the casino a check and go home - don't waste your time, and don't ruin it for the rest of us. Because sure enough, whenever this happens, the drunk moron pulls a face (the dealer's bust card), causes the dealer to pull a five-card 20 or 21, and the rest of the table loses (often on a double-down or split, since the dealer had a 6, doubling the agony). And it never seems to work the other way, either - bad plays by the drunk moron always seem to cause the dealer to make a hand, never bust it.
The concept of going to a show in Vegas wasn't particularly appealing (at least not the type of show I could take my wife to). I guess I don't like the concept of watching a bunch of dudes (or females, for that matter) wearing tights doing a bunch of dancing or other artistic crap. That said, I enjoyed Criss Angel's show in Luxor.
I played roulette seven times. Each time, I profited $100 ($700 total). Here's my strategy. Take $100, bet red. If it hits red, walk away with your $100 profit. If it's not red, then bet $200 on red for the next spin. If that spin is red, walk away with your $100 profit (the $200 win minus the $100 loss from the first spin). If it's not, then bet $400 on the next spin. If that spin is red, walk away with your $100 profit (the $400 win minus the $100 loss from the first spin and the $200 from the second). If it's not, continue doubling down until you get red. Eventually, you'll get red and get your $100 profit. The only potential pitfalls, as I see it, are if you hit several black/green in a row and your bankroll isn't big enough to keep doubling down, or you hit several black/green in a row and continuing to double down means you exceed the table limit. It also requires the discipline to walk away after $100. (Of course, if $100 isn't good enough for you, then you can do the same approach with $1,000 or any other figure - just keep doubling.)
I'm not really a golf fan - I'll watch the majors if I'm at home and nothing else is going on, but that's about it. But I figured, I'm in Vegas, so I might as well look at the futures bets. And when I ran the odds by two friends who are golf geeks, I wound up betting on Nick Watney and Hunter Mahan, each at 15:1 to win a major (any major) this year. Not a bad way to increase the enjoyment if you intend to watch the PGA majors this year, and it gives you four chances to win.
Finally, with baseball season coming, I really wanted to make some sort of baseball bet. I didn't like any of the team-based bets (the Phillies are 1:3 to win the NL East), so I studied the odds for winning the HR title. Here were the favorites:
Pujols 7:1
MCabrera, Fielder, and Howard 8:1
Teixeira, Dunn, AGonzalez, and Bautista 15:1
Votto, MReynolds, CarGo 20:1
Hamilton, NCruz, Braun 25:1
ARod, Bruce, Longoria 30:1
Among these, Dunn jumped out at me. He hits 40 HRs every year, and he's moving to a hitter-friendly park. As a safe bet for 40-45 HRs, he's good value at 15:1.