Want to win the Super Bowl? As recent history has indicated, you better have as lost recently as Week 15 or forget it. I have a theory that a late-season loss helps refocus/motivate a team. There is |STAR|some|STAR| data to back me up:
- Last season's Packers lost in Week 15 to New England 31-27 in a game Matt Flynn had to start due to an Aaron Rodgers concussion. The Packers went on to win six straight to win the Super Bowl.
- 2009, the New Orleans Saints won the Super Bowl upsetting the Indianapolis Colts. Their last regular season loss? Carolina in Week 17, 23-10. Oh and they lost in Week 16, 20-17 in overtime to Tampa Bay. Again in Week 15, 24-17 to Dallas. So they lost three straight in the regular season games before wining the Super Bowl for those lacking math skills.
- 2008, the Pittsburgh Steelers won by beating the Arizona Cardinals and their (Fitzgerald) own unpredictable run to the big game. The last time the Steelers lost in the regular season? Week 16 to Tennessee 31-14.
- 2007, the Giants lost in Week 17 to the Patriots, 38-35 before making an improbable run to the Super Bowl and extracting revenge.
- 2006, the Colts lost in Week 16 to Houston 27-24 before beating the Bears to win the championship.
I'll omit the 2005 Steelers since they don't match the criteria above. Hint, hint.
My point here is this. There are likely variables that I've not gone in depth with each season (although I noted the Matt Flynn start) but there's a lot to suggest a loss is good for a deep run into the playoffs. The Patriots came into the playoffs last season with an eight game win streak and a 14-2 record, exactly how New Orleans finished the season and with said record. We know how the Jets handled last year's Pats in the playoffs. Wait, this season's Patriots (the eight-game win streak) did the same but ended up with a 13-3 record.
Personally, I don't think the Saints are losing this weekend but based on what's happened the last five years, they don't look good to make another title run. I totally bankrolled them in my fantasy drafts whenever I could so I'm being a hypocrite here. However, I thought these stats were somewhat interesting. On the surface without going into depth, I think all the late season games the champions lost were meaningful games. The next weeks' ones weren't likely as meaningful. Again, I didn't go too in depth so I'm probably wrong. What do you think?
Of the playoff teams this season, here's the last week each team lost:
New Orleans: Week 9
New England: Week 9
San Francisco: Week 14
New York: Week 15
Green Bay: Week 15
Baltimore: Week 15
Pittsburgh: Week 15
Atlanta: Week 16
Cincinnati: Week 17
Houston: Week 17
Detroit: Week 17
Denver: Week 17
If you're a New England, New Orleans or even a San Francisco fan, this can't make you feel any better, right?
Again, not sure how much I buy into all of this but I found it interesting and hopefully you did too.