Giants money line +120----- $30
Obviously the Patriots may well win this game. But in what strikes me as a 50/50 sort of game, one which should come down to the fourth quarter, I'll take better than even money, particularly since it means I'll be rooting for the team I'd rather see win the game.
Under 55 total points, Even ----- $10
Under 27.5 points for the first half, Even ------ $10
Didn't we see these two teams play a scoreless first half earlier this year? Obviously that won't happen again, but 55 total points suggests a final score of 29-26. I think that's just too high. The Giants defense is playing at a high level, and I'd be a bit surprised to see the Patriots get into the 30s.
Under 48.5 points (alternate total) +180 ----- $10
If the O/U really should be 51 or 52,as I believe, then under 48.5 isn't asking too much, particularly at a return of nearly 2:1.
Will either team score in the last two minutes of the first half?
Yes -280
No +220 --------- $10
I don't understand this one at all. Yes, I realize with two good quarterbacks that there's a good chance of a score in the final two minutes of the first half, especially with timeouts being used. However, it wouldn't surprise me at all to see no points put up in the final two minutes ... heck, it happened between these teams earlier this year!. A return of greater than 2:1 seems appealing here. I see this as another example of how the public doesn't like for something not to happen, and Vegas builds that bias into the line.
Will the team that scores first win the game?
Yes -170
No +140 ---------- $10
If you think this will be a close game that comes down to the fourth quarter, as I do, then it may not matter much which team scores first.
First score of the game will be:
Touchdown -190
Any other score +155 ------- $10
This is another bet that strikes me as much more random than the juice suggests.
Will one quarter be scoreless?
Yes +300 ------------- $10
No -400
If you think the game will be lower-scoring than the experts predict, a scoreless quarter is not unfathomable, and a 3:1 return isn't bad at all. Plus, this bet gives you four chances to win.
Will Giants convert a fourth down attempt?
Yes +160 --------------- $10
No -200
Will Patriots convert a fourth down attempt?
Yes +130 ------------------ $10
No -150
We all know Belichick is aggressive on fourth down at all stages of the game. Plus, it's likely that one of these teams will have to go for it on fourth down in the fourth quarter. By making both bets, I only need one conversion to come out ahead, and who knows - both teams converting a fourth down wouldn't be that nuts.
I'll admit I'm a novice when it comes to parlays, but if I could do so with the following four bets, it would be pretty sweet.
If not, my theory of the game (close, low-scoring) makes each a fine bet on its own as well.
Will there be overtime?
Yes +700 ------------------- $10
No -1200
Will the game be decided by exactly three points:
Yes +325 ------------ $10
No -450
Will the game be tied after 0-0 (excluding conversions)?
Yes Even ----------------- $10
No -130
Last score of the game will be:
Touchdown -240
Any other score +180 ------------- $10
Other than the Giants and the under, the thing I'm probably most confident about for Super Bowl 46 is fading Rob Gronkowski. High ankle sprains are a big deal - we've seen it over and over again. Expecting him to be himself with just two weeks to heal is too much to ask. And while I'm loathe to put too much stock into what the Patriots report about injuries mid-week, the fact that Gronk is wearing a walking boot is telling.
Basically, I think Gronk will suit up and play, but be far less effective than normal. As a result,somebody will pick up the slack for the Patriots, and Aaron Hernandez seems like the logical choice.
Rob Gronkowski, total receiving yards
Over 79.5, -115
Under 79.5, -115 --------------- $10
Rob Gronkowski, longest reception
Over 21.5, -130
Under 21.5, even ---------------- $10
Rob Gronkowski, will he score a touchdown
Yes -160
No+130 --------------- $10
Aaron Hernandez, total receptions
Over 5.5, -115 --------------- $10
Under 5.5, -115
Aaron Hernandez, receiving yards
Over 66.5, -115 -------------------- $10
Under 66.5, -115
Even if I'm wrong about Gronk's health, all of these prop bets seem like reasonable choices regardless. Hence, in a sense, it's like I have two chances to win each of these bets - one if Gronk is hurt, and the other if the game plays out in a way where Hernandez does well anyway.