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NFC NORTH - Fantasy Preview

After looking at the AFC East, I'm continuing my division-by-division breakdown by rating the players of the NFC North on the three B's scale (Best, Bust, Buy-Low). Not to be ignored are the IDP's and schedule analysis. Fire away with any thoughts.



Best

Aaron Rodgers, QB (GB) – I'm not going to waste much breath here. The absolute lowest I'd consider taking Rodgers is fourth overall. There's simply no more consistent a force in football.

Calvin Johnson, WR (DET) – I don't believe in curses and I don't believe there's a better receiver in the league. Megatron is the surest non-quarterback in fantasy after the top three running backs.

Matthew Stafford, QB (DET) – Injury concern will still follow Stafford until he's completed a handful of healthy seasons, but he proved last year he's an absolute stud when he's on the field. Few can sling it with the velocity of Stafford, and that rocket arm allows him to make all the big throws he needs to. While it's highly doubtful he hits the 5K mark again or 40+ scores, the addition of Ryan Broyles and the threat of a run game should help him to maintain an elite level of production.

Greg Jennings, WR (GB) – One of the purest route-runners in the league with elite ball skills and great after-the-catch ability, Jennings is about as consistent as they come. With he and Rodgers always on the same page, there are few surer things at any position. Lock Jennings into the top-10 at receiver.

Jordy Nelson, WR (GB) – Nelson will not come close to repeating his epically efficient 2011 season. But that doesn't mean he can't post similar totals while seeing a higher volume of targets. He and Rodgers have developed phenomenal chemistry and with his combination of size, speed and hands, Nelson is an especially tough cover. Expect him to continue abusing weaker corners while defenses worry about Jennings and Jermichael Finley.

Brandon Marshall, WR (CHI) – In his two full seasons with Jay Cutler in Denver, Marshall went and racked up 206 catches, 2,590 yards and 13 scores. "Reunited and it feels so good" will be a theme song of the Chicago offense this year, and it could lead to a career season for Marshall.

Percy Harvin, WR (MIN) – The league's most versatile receiver, Harvin is almost a sure bet for 1,200+ total yards, especially if he sees a boost in carries until Adrian Peterson is back to 100|PERCENT|. If he can continue developing chemistry with Christian Ponder, he could also post a career-best touchdown mark. Add in the motivation he should have for earning a big contract extension and we could be staring at a top-5 season for this dynamic playmaker.

Mikel Leshoure, RB (DET) – Leshoure should be plenty healthy when he's finally able to see the field in Week 3 and it shouldn't take him long at all to assume the bulk of the carries out of the Detroit backfield. Jahvid Best has a pathetic career YPC of 3.4 when you remove his one big 88-yarder from last season and that simply doesn't get it done. Kevin Smith, like Best, is too fragile to last, and Leshoure, who's a physical beast at 6-0, 230, will have no trouble churning up the yards against defenses keying on Stafford's right arm.

Jay Cutler, QB (CHI) – See Marshall, Brandon. The addition of an elite No. 1 receiver, drafting of Alshon Jeffery, insurance policy of Michael Bush and involvement of promising tight end Kellen Davis will make Cutler really tough to stop. Add in six games versus a division that has some of the worst secondaries in football and you have a great recipe for success.

Jermichael Finley, TE (GB) – If Finley can correct his issues with drops he could provide another monster to the tight end arms race. Of all tight ends in the league, he's the best bet to achieve the absurd heights that Rob Gronkowski and Jimmy Graham met last season. He's a giant receiver, has an elite quarterback and can create after the catch. And he'll come a bit discounted after he disappointed in 2011, making him a great buy.



Bust

Adrian Peterson, RB (MIN) – The Vikings have at best a 3-5 year window to win with Peterson still the focal point of their offense. And being that they are realistically a year or two away from truly competing for a playoff spot, it would be a bit shocking to see them let AP test his knee any sooner than October. I don't care how much of a freak athlete Peterson is, it takes a minimum of nine months for a torn ACL to properly heal and regain adequate strength in the knee. That means if you draft Peterson as a top-10 or even 15 running back, you run a huge risk of being without your star for a significant chunk of season. It's simply not worth it.

Matt Forte, RB (CHI) – Forte will never have a top-10 running back season as long as Michael Bush is in Chicago. Never much of a goal line back, Forte can now be assured of losing chances inside the 10 with Bush's beefy presence in the backfield. And with Bush's competency as both a runner and receiver, Forte's total yards will take a hit as well. The Bears seem like they're never going to pay Forte, and going to a committee approach gives them reason to never have to. So consider his fantasy dominance a thing of the past.

Jahvid Best, RB (DET) – There is such a real chance that Best is one hit away from retirement that spending a pick on him—in any round—is like throwing away a pick. Sure he has upside to give you a big game early in the season, but between his injury risk and the addition of Leshoure to the mix, there's no reason to believe his upside is higher than that of any other back you could be taking when he's drafted. So draft the other guy.

Brandon Pettigrew, TE (DET) – Sorry, Mr. Pettigrew. Ryan Broyles will be stealing about half of your looks in the short to intermediate level of the field and rendering you a highly disposable fantasy tight end since your only real value came from volume and not efficiency.

James Starks, RB (GB) – The Packers don't run it enough to make Starks a valuable commodity. And even if they did, the big back simply can't keep himself on the field. Sooner rather than later, Alex Green is going to steal this job.

Titus Young, WR (DET) – Young has major potential in the Lions' run-and-shoot style offense and with Johnson creating plenty of one-on-one opportunities. But a combination of immaturity and Broyles' presence will limit his upside severely. Because of the offense he plays in, Young straddles the fence between bust and buy-low, and only enters the latter's territory if you can grab him as an end-of-the-bench receiver.



Buy-Low

Toby Gerhart, RB (MIN) – When AP misses time at the start of the season Gerhart will be an excellent spot-starter. There's no telling how many games that will be for unless Peterson goes on the PUP list, but even if it's just a few, Gerhart will cover the investment of a mid-round pick. He's versatile enough to beat teams on the ground or through the air as a receiver and should be a great source of total yards and scores until AP returns to the lineup.

Michael Bush, RB (CHI) – Even prior to Forte going down for the year, Marion Barber rushed for five touchdowns as a the team's goal line vulture. As a bigger and much better player than Barber, Bush could become one of the premier vultures in the game, while also posting enough yards to make him flex-worthy—a la Mike Tolbert the past two years.

Alex Green, RB (GB) – When given the choice between a guy I know little about versus a guy I don't expect much from because of what I do know about him, give me the unknown. That's possibly the biggest appeal for Green this offseason. He needs to prove he's recovered from a torn ACL that ended his rookie year, but if he shows that in the preseason, he could factor into a big role for the Packers as a pass-catching back that will share the load with Starks until the latter gets banged up yet again.

Kyle Rudolph, TE (MIN) – The hunt is on this year for the next version of Gronkowski or Graham, and Rudolph is a leading candidate. He shares a similar build to those two at a hulking 6-foot-6, 260 lbs. and he boasts exceptionally soft hands and solid enough speed to be a vertical threat. Don't be surprised if Rudolph becomes the Vikings' second-leading receiver and top red zone target.

Earl Bennett, WR (CHI) – With the addition of Marshall and Jeffery, Bennett can finally assume his more natural role playing out of the slot. As a crisp route-runner with sticky hands and a strong chemistry with Cutler dating back to their college days, Bennett could post the type of numbers that Eddie Royal did in 2008 (91 catches, 980 yards, five scores) as Cutler's secondary target to Marshall.

Randall Cobb, WR (GB) – Taking fliers at the end of drafts is all about finding the guy with the most upside "if X happens." And Cobb fits that bill quite nicely. He's got huge playmaking ability and will get more opportunities in his second season with the game's best quarterback. If the Packers suffer any injury issues at receiver, Cobb could vault his way up the fantasy stardom ladder very quickly.

Ryan Broyles, WR (DET) – This is not the first time and won't be the last time that I say it: Broyles will be the No. 2 receiver in Detroit before the end of his rookie season. He's that good. Not only is he a natural, he's a student of the game and an exceptionally hard worker. His smooth route running, great quickness and sure hands make him an ideal complement to Megatron, and Stafford will love carving up the middle of the field with him.

Christian Ponder, QB (MIN) – Though they came in small spurts, Ponder displayed all the traits of a future star quarterback last year. He can throw a pretty, accurate ball with the necessary touch or velocity for any situation. He can stand strong in the pocket and make the right reads or he can get outside and find guys on the run or turn it upfield himself for a big gain. Ponder has more weapons this year and could make big strides against a soft schedule, meaning he could become a quality reserve QB after the first tier of backups.

Jerome Simpson, WR (MIN) – Though he's suspended for the first three games, Simpson should slide right into the No. 2 receiver spot opposite Harvin when he returns. With his tremendous athleticism, he should provide the deep threat the Vikings lacked last year. If Ponder develops like I expect him to, that could lead to a handful of big games, particularly against the weak pass defenses in Detroit and Green Bay.

Alshon Jeffery, WR (CHI) – I wasn't high on Jeffery leading up to the NFL Draft, but in fantasy drafts he could be a solid flier given his combination of size and hands. Sometimes these young kids are misunderstood—see Mike Williams coming out of Syracuse a couple years ago. So I'm willing to throw out the immature, lazy tag if he shows effort and improvement in the preseason. After all, the "if" factor on this kid is about as huge as he is.

Kevin Smith, RB (DET) – Whether Smith is Mr. Glass or not, it's hard to ignore that he's still got plenty of talent to be a big producer if the chance is there. He saw snaps in just seven games last year and played more than half of them with a high ankle sprain, yet he still totaled 535 yards and seven scores. If he can manage to stay healthy, he could be a nice complement to Leshoure after Best gets hurt.



Top IDP's

Desmond Bishop, LB (GB) – In just 13 games, Bishop had an impressive 115 total tackles (with 90 solo) and five sacks. And he's just entering his prime, meaning another season of elite numbers can be expected.

Jared Allen, DE (MIN) – This one really requires no explanation. Allen is as a good a pass rusher as the league has seen in the past decade.

Chad Greenway, LB (MIN) – An absolute tackling machine the past two seasons, Greenway has nearly posted 300 total tackles over that span. For a Vikings defense that will spend plenty of time on the field, he's an absolute first-rate IDP.

Charles Woodson, DB (GB) – Even though Woodson will turn 36 this year, he's still one of the game's best playmakers on defense. He does a little bit of everything and his interception and tackle totals during his tenure in Green Bay have made him a top notch DB IDP.

Stephen Tulloch, LB (DET) – After a spectacular 2010 with the Titans, Tulloch posted a solid all-around season in his first year in Detroit with over 100 total tackles, three sacks and two picks. Now that he'll get a full offseason to further absorb the defense, he could return to being an elite IDP behind the Lions' tremendous front four.

Morgan Burnett, DB (GB) – In his first full season, Burnett started off red-hot with 28 total tackles, three picks and a sack in just the first three games. A broken hand forced him to play with a cast and slowed him down a bit though he still played every game and finished the year with over 100 total tackles. With his health 100|PERCENT| entering his second season the sky could be the limit for this versatile safety.

Brian Urlacher, LB (CHI) – Despite a history of back problems and advancing age, Urlacher just keeps coming. He just notched his ninth season over 100 total tackles at the age of 33, and until he's out of the league, it's tough to imagine him not getting a 10th.

Lance Briggs, LB (CHI) – Like his partner in crime, Briggs just keeps on going. So though he'll turn 32 during the season, 100+ tackles is the expectation for a man who's been to seven straight Pro Bowls.

Clay Matthews, LB (GB) – Matthews vanished like a ghost last year as offenses were able to consistently double team him and neutralize his rush. With rookie backer Nick Perry providing an additional threat, teams will have to deal with Matthews one-on-one much more often. Expect his sack totals to return and his tackles to go up.

Charles Tillman, DB (CHI) – Coming off a career-high 99 total tackles and two pick sixes, it's clear that Tillman has not hit the downside of his playing days entering his tenth season.

Ndamukong Suh, DT (DET) – A huge drop off from his rookie year saw Suh total 30 less tackles and notch six less sacks in 2011. But this young monster is an absolute force up front and will have plenty of motivation to prove he is much more than a dirty player. Expect a bounce back and a very useful d-line IDP.

Julius Peppers, DE (CHI) – Peppers' value lies more in leagues that reward highly for sacks, as he really doesn't pile up too many tackles, but he's still a remarkable athlete and a high-motor playmaker who can provide some big weeks in any format.

Cliff Avril, DE (DET) – Avril, like Peppers, is primarily a sack and forced fumble guy who won't net you many tackles. For a young speed rusher who is just entering his prime though, he could be a star in leagues that favor sacks.

Charlie Peprah, DB (GB) – Peprah is one of those guys that produces fantasy numbers because he's not a good cover man. He gets picked on a lot by opposing quarterbacks and that led to 94 total tackles and five interceptions last year. If he can keep the starting strong safety job for the Pack, he could remain a solid DB option.

Louis Delmas, DB (DET) – After posting two strong IDP seasons to begin his career, Delmas took a big step backwards in 2011 while battling a knee issue. If he can regain the playmaking, big-hitting form he entered the league with, Delmas could resurface as a good option at defensive back.

Harrison Smith, DB (MIN) – With three great quarterbacks in the division, the Vikings are going to get thrown on and thrown on often. If Smith, who was one of the team's first round picks, lands a starting role at safety, that could translate to an awful lot of tackles.



Schedule

The NFC North squares off with the NFC West & AFC South in 2012.

Green Bay Packers

Bye Week: 10

Playoff Matchups:
Week 14 vs. Detroit
Week 15 @ Chicago
Week 16 vs. Tennessee
Week 17 @ Minnesota

Overall: For what the Packers do best, they're basically matchup proof for their entire passing attack. But the 49ers coming to town Week 1 and trips to the Seahawks, Texans and Giants may slow them some, and at least derail any run game they may try to get going. In the end though, it's hard to find a sweeter playoff schedule than Green Bay's.

Detroit Lions

Bye Week: 5

Playoff Matchups:
Week 14 @ Green Bay
Week 15 @ Arizona
Week 16 vs. Atlanta
Week 17 vs. Chicago

Overall: As it is for the rest of the division, the toughest contest will be the Niners, who Detroit will travel to this year, fortunately though in Week 2. Trips to Philly and Arizona will also be tough test and visits from Houston and Seattle certainly won't be easy, but with such an explosive offense, the rest of the schedule looks harmless.

Chicago Bears

Bye Week: 6

Playoff Matchups:
Week 14 @ Minnesota
Week 15 vs. Green Bay
Week 16 @ Arizona
Week 17 @ Detroit

Overall: The Bears too get San Fran (Week 11) on the road for their scariest contest. Trips to Dallas and Arizona (potential Super Bowl week in the desert) and visits from Houston and Seattle could also be hiccup games for the offense, but we're otherwise staring at another promising slate.

Minnesota Vikings

Bye Week: 11

Playoff Matchups:
Week 14 vs. Chicago
Week 15 @ St. Louis
Week 16 @ Houston
Week 17 vs. Green Bay

Overall: The 49er game will be out of the way early enough (Week 3) to not mess with Peterson owners too much, but the trip to Houston in a potential Super Bowl week is unpleasant timing. Games in Seattle and Washington mark two of the only other iffy weeks for what looks like one of the league's easiest fantasy schedules.