At long last, the final big chip in free agency fell early Monday morning. James Shields signed a four-year deal with the Padres, becoming the latest addition to new GM A.J. Preller's rebuilt roster in San Diego.
It's no secret that Petco Park brings a significant boost to the value of pitchers. As someone who has spent parts of the past two seasons squeezing value out of Eric Stults in his home starts, and wondering what Tyson Ross' true talent level is, I am curious to see what the 2015 season will bring for Shields and trying to appropriate adjust my expectations for him.
With nine big league seasons under his belt -- seven with the Rays and two with the Royals -- Shields has been fortunate to spend his entire career in pitcher-friendly environments to this point. Defensively, many of the teams he's played on have been very good or excellent, which is unlikely to be the case in San Diego. Oddly enough, he posted a reverse platoon split between Kauffman Stadium and the road in each of the past two seasons.
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He's also been extremely durable, as no pitcher has logged more innings than Shields since the start of the 2007 season.
Last season for the Royals, Shields posted the second-highest K/BB ratio of his career (4.1), thanks to improved control (1.7 BB/9), as his strikeout rate fell for the second year in a row (7.1 K/9, 19.2%). One of the big differences for Shields last season was the value of his changeup, which FanGraphs graded out as a negative pitch for the first time in his career. His fastball also returned a negative value, as was the case for the pitch in 2013.
Even with the gradual decline as he moves into his age-33 season, the move into the NL West should help salvage some of the recent strikeout loss. With a 7.4-7.6 K/9 and 2.0-2.2 BB/9, his FIP would be in range of the 3.62 and 3.66 marks that he's posted over the past two seasons.
For me, the big question to answer is approach. Will Shields change anything in his approach with the move into Petco? Will he focus more on his fastball and cutter combo, and begin to rely less on his changeup? Can he attack hitters in different parts of the strike zone with a lessened fear of making mistakes?
In my preliminary Top 350 for the upcoming RotoWire Roundtable rankings, Shields moved up to 81st overall, making him my 17th ranked starting pitcher. The move up was based on an expected ERA closer to 3.15 than the previously projected 3.50. The WHIP seems likely to fall in the 1.15-1.18 range, while the higher than average workload he's taken on makes last season's 180 strikeouts the floor. He's currently behind Jon Lester, Jeff Samardzija, and Adam Wainwright, while holding a spot ahead of Julio Teheran, Matt Harvey, Gerrit Cole, and Jake Arrieta (based on expected workload more than raw skills).
If Shields had signed with an AL East team, the expected adjustments to his ratios and greater potential for further erosion to his strikeout rate would have brought him down approximately 30 spots overall in the vicinity of Gio Gonzalez and Sonny Gray.
How much are you adjusting your projection and ranking for Shields?
Let me know on Twitter @DerekVanRiper.