I still have some doubts, but I've decided against fading Gerrit Cole tonight for the Draft Kings survivor tournament. He's going to be owned nearly universally - my guess is it will be over 75%, and the next best starters are Jaime Garcia and Jordan Zimmermann. He has a poor track record against the Reds, but one of those that hits him the best (in a whopping 11 at-bat sample) in Brandon Phillips has been scratched from the lineup. Todd Frazier scares me, as does an in-form Joey Votto. But this is also a different Cole than the Reds have faced most of the time, too. Moreover, this is basically a 50-50 tournament, so there's less advantage in being different from the pack.
The tougher question was who to pair Cole with. I didn't want to pay up for Zimmermann or Garcia, neither of whom has a big strikeout upside. I gave serious consideration to Jimmy Nelson at home against a watered-down Mets lineup (and still might pivot there, but for now I'm staying with my current selection) or Ryan Vogelsong at home against the Padres. The latter provides some strikeout upside, but there's also a slightly higher disaster potential. Instead, I landed on Roenis Elias at home against the Royals. The Royals are not an easy matchup, but they're less potent against LHs and on the road, especially in a good pitcher's park.
Here's the full Survivor lineup:
SP - Cole, $10.5
SP - Elias, $7.4
C - Buster Posey, $3.91B - David Ortiz, $4.4
2B - DJ LeMahieu, $4.0
3B - Arenado, $4.7
SS - JJ Hardy, $3.3
OF - Jason Heyward, $3.7
OF - Brock Holt, $3.7
OF - David Peralta, $4.3
Obviously, I want a good number of bats in Coors and in Boston. I'm avoiding the Cubs-Dodgers game due to the weather.
I also did two FanDuel lineups - the $5 Sirius/XM contest, and a $5 50-50.
SXM:
P - Nelson, $6.9
C - Molina, $3.0
1B - Fielder, $3.62B - Wong, $3.0
3B - Carpenter, $3.5
SS - Tulowitzki, $4.4
OF - Blackmon, $4.5
OF - Peralta, $3.4
OF - Polanco, $2.5
50-50
P - Cole, $11.1
C - Hundley, $3.3
1B - Ortiz, $3.0
2B - Wong, $3.0
3B - Carpenter, $3.5
SS - Bogaerts, $2.8
OF - Peralta, $3.4
OF - Pagan, $2.2
OF - Polanco, $2.5