Picking pitchers in DFS is the most important part of the game as they routinely generate the most points. I'm going to try and aid in that picking process with some arms I like. I won't have a set number because it will vary day-to-day and it won't be a guaranteed everyday thing because sometimes the slate just isn't appealing enough to give firm recommendations. That doesn't mean I'll necessarily pass on playing, just that I don't want to offer some tepid endorsements that I'm not even all that comfortable with using myself.
Generally, I'll try to include at least one lower level pick, too. I'll be using DraftKings pricing so this will usually be someone who checks in at $8,000 or less.
I didn't play Wednesday because I had softball and then I made my lineup very late Thursday so no CTA for either day. Here are my Friday picks, though:
Corey Kluber, CLE at MIN ($10,600) – Kluber has had a remarkably frustrating season for both DFSers and season-long fantasy players alike. He has a 3.46 ERA and just a 7-12 record despite K and BB rates nearly identical to his Cy Young campaign at 27% and 5%, respectively, after a 28%/5% combo in 2014. The 3.46 ERA isn't killing anyone's season-long team, nor is lower-than-expected wins total (this is why we constantly say that W-L records aren't useful analogs to determine a pitcher's value), but the inconsistency has been maddening.
Kluber had five starts of more than 3 ER last year in his 34 turns, but this year he has eight in 24 including a pair of 6 ER drubbings, both at the hands of a Chicago White Sox team that has vastly underperformed offensively through most of the year. Additionally, he never allowed more than 9 hits in a start last year, but has three such outing this year. Some of that isn't on him as the team defense was lacking severely before the arrivals of Francisco Lindor and Giovanny Urshela at shortstop and third base, respectively.
On the other end of the spectrum, Kluber has seven 10+ K outings, three nine-inning outings (only two were CGs because one went to extras), and nine ultra-quality starts (7+ IP/2 or fewer ER). His ERA is a run higher despite his FIP jumping just 0.20 runs from 2.35 to 2.55. He has dominated the Twins in both meetings this year: 8 IP/2 ER in April and 9 IP/1 ER just last week. Let's hope Kluber's on-off pattern stops here as his last five starts have seen him allow 3, 6, 1, 5, and 1 ER. I'm still willing to take a risk on his elite-level talent, especially at a relative discount as the fourth-most expensive arm on the board.
Robbie Ray, ARI at ATL ($7,500) – Ray is having a brilliant season in his debut with Arizona, though aspects of his profile suggest it has been a little too good to be true. In fact, we're seeing some of that regression lately in the form of home runs. Through his first 10 starts, he had a 3% HR/FB rate despite both a 44% FB and 40% Hard contact rate. The HR/FB rate was set for regression no matter what, but combined with the fact that he was a flyball pitcher who was allowing a good bit of hard contact, it was likely going to be sharp regression.
In his last three starts, he's allowed four homers with a 25% HR/FB rate. Oddly enough, the flyball and Hard contact rates are both down in that span at 34% and 35%, respectively. Despite the HR surge he has still been solid in two of three outings going 7 IP/2 ER at SEA and 6 IP/3 ER v. CIN. The other was a clunker at HOU: 5 IP/4 ER.
Atlanta is one of the least powerful teams in the league against lefties with just 17 HRs in 974 PA (tied for third-fewest) so I'm comfortable starting Ray even if his profile suggests the 3.13 ERA is a little better than his raw skills deserve.
Digging Deeper:
Martin Perez, TEX v. TB ($4,200) – Perez has a 5.81 ERA for the season, but his season consists of just five starts, one of which was a 1 IP/8 ER nightmare v. the Yankees. He followed that with a 8.3 IP/1 ER gem v. SF and 6 IP/2 ER outing at SEA. Perez is the second-cheapest pitcher on the board which makes him pretty appealing, even though the Rays are above average against lefties.